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Michael Mayer Week 7 Projection & Kalshi Props

TE · Las Vegas Raiders · bye week 13

This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →

Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles

Week 7 vs LAR — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.

Our Week 7 projection for Michael Mayer, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Where the market has Michael Mayer this week

A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.

Week 7 — how often he gets there

Every result Michael Mayer could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.

Rec Yds

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 0·median 23·90th 81

Receptions

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 0·median 3·90th 6

The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 7.

The week's sharpest prop, across every player

One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes — preview it free; publishing runs on an Enterprise license.

The Ladder — Michael Mayer

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

Michael MayerReceptionsMARKET READView 4+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 53¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 4+ rec
YES 53¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 4+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 53¢, the books imply 52¢ — 0.3 points above the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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Michael Mayer Kalshi prop ladder for Week 7: the Kalshi price at every strike vs the sportsbook consensus
Michael Mayer's headline Kalshi ladder this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Embed this player’s prop ladder

A live card locked to Michael Mayer — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

Every NFL prediction-market widget.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Michael Mayer Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/michael-mayer?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Michael Mayer Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/michael-mayer?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Prop market — every Kalshi strike

Full market board →
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Michael Mayer with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
ContractKalshiConsensusGapBest priceTrade
4+ recLV v LAR52.5¢52.2%6bk+0.3¢over · Novig 52.6¢under · Novig 49¢Kalshi →
anytime TDLV v LAR22.5¢—one-sidedover · BetRivers 23¢under · Kalshi 79.2¢Kalshi →
30+ rec ydsLV v LAR52.0¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Novig 52.6¢under · Novig 50¢Kalshi →
6+ recLV v LAR19.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · BetRivers 19.6¢under · Kalshi 83¢Kalshi →

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 24, 11:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value

Projected points

102

6.0 per game

Consensus ADP

291

round 25

TE rank

TE33

model has him TE31

2026 range

10th pct 57·median 99·90th pct 162

Measured, not simulated. Our TE projections have landed inside this band 75% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.

Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at TE.

Raiders 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

vs MIA

Week 2

at LAC

Week 3

at NO

Week 4

vs KC

Week 5

at NE

Week 6

vs BUF

Week 7

vs LAR

Week 8

at NYJ

Week 9

at SF

Week 10

vs SEA

Week 11

at DEN

Week 12

at CLE

Week 14

vs LAC

Week 15

vs DEN

Week 16

vs TEN

Week 17

at ARI

Week 18

at KC

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about Michael Mayer

What are Michael Mayer's Kalshi props for Week 7?

As of Oct 24, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 4 strikes on Michael Mayer against LAR: anytime TD at 22.5¢, 4+ rec at 52.5¢, 30+ rec yds at 52.0¢, 6+ rec at 19.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.

Where is the best price on Michael Mayer anytime TD?

As of Oct 24, 11:10 PM ET, the cheapest over is BetRivers at 23¢ (next best 23.5¢), and the cheapest under is Kalshi at 79.2¢ (next best 83.5¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.

What is Michael Mayer's 2026 projection?

Michael Mayer projects 102 half-PPR points (6.0 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 291 (round 25). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

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Projections as of 2026-10-24; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.