Jonathan Taylor
RB · Indianapolis Colts · bye week 13
This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines →Week 5 results →
Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers
Week 6 vs TEN — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 6 projection for Jonathan Taylor, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Jonathan Taylor this week
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Jonathan Taylor at 47.5¢ for 90+ rush yds against TEN in Week 6; the 4-book sportsbook consensus implies 49.9%, a 2.4¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (49¢) and the best under at ESPN Bet (52.4¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Jonathan Taylor at 67.5¢ for anytime TD against TEN in Week 6, with the best over at Novig (67.9¢) and the best under at Kalshi (34.6¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Jonathan Taylor at 31.5¢ for 2+ TDs against TEN in Week 6.
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Jonathan Taylor at 8.5¢ for 3+ TDs against TEN in Week 6.
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 6 — how often he gets there
Every result Jonathan Taylor could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 16·90th 57
Receptions
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 2·90th 5
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 19·median 58·90th 169
Flagged WATCH — our input on this one is provenance-limited or contradicted by news, and it is graded separately.
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.
Oracle prop calls
Full prop board →Market is the Kalshi price of the side we are calling; the model figure is our probability of that same outcome; divergence is the gap between them in percentage points. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
The Ladder — Jonathan Taylor
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Kalshi prices 3+ rec at 51¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 2–3
- 3+rec52¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 50¢, the books imply 48¢ — 1.5 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 20+ rush att at 51¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 23+rush att——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 19–20
- 20+rush att——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 110+ rush+rec yds at 54¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 160+rush+rec yds——
- 135+rush+rec yds——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 113–114
- 110+rush+rec yds——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 47.5¢ | 49.9%4bk | -2.4¢ | over · Novig 49¢under · ESPN Bet 52.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 20+ rec ydsIND v TEN | 45.5¢ | 47.2%3bk | -1.7¢ | over · Kalshi 47.7¢under · ProphetX 54.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 3+ recIND v TEN | 50.5¢ | 52.0%6bk | -1.5¢ | over · Novig 51.9¢under · ProphetX 49.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rec ydsIND v TEN | 56.5¢ | 57.0%exch | -0.5¢ | over · Kalshi 58.7¢under · Novig 45¢ | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rec ydsIND v TEN | 36.5¢ | 36.1%exch | +0.4¢ | over · ProphetX 37.9¢under · Kalshi 65.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDIND v TEN | 67.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Novig 67.9¢under · Kalshi 34.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ TDsIND v TEN | 31.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 3+ TDsIND v TEN | 8.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 20+ rush attIND v TEN | 51.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 23+ rush attIND v TEN | 30.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 110+ rush+rec ydsIND v TEN | 53.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 135+ rush+rec ydsIND v TEN | 32.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 160+ rush+rec ydsIND v TEN | 17.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 60+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 78.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 81.1¢under · Kalshi 24.2¢ | Kalshi → |
| 70+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 70.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 72.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 80+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 59.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 61.7¢under · Kalshi 42.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 100+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 40.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 42.7¢under · Kalshi 61.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 110+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 32.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 34¢under · Kalshi 70.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 120+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 25.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 27.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 130+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 19.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 22.2¢ | Kalshi → |
| 150+ rush ydsIND v TEN | 10.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 11.9¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, books as of Oct 17, 7:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
271
15.9 per game
Consensus ADP
6
round 1
RB rank
RB3
model has him RB2
2026 range
10th pct 136·median 268·90th pct 463
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Colts 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Jonathan Taylor
What are Jonathan Taylor's Kalshi props for Week 6?
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi lists 21 strikes on Jonathan Taylor against TEN: 90+ rush yds at 47.5¢, anytime TD at 67.5¢, 2+ TDs at 31.5¢, 3+ TDs at 8.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Jonathan Taylor 90+ rush yds?
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, the cheapest over is Novig at 49¢ (next best 49.8¢), and the cheapest under is ESPN Bet at 52.4¢ (next best 52.6¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Jonathan Taylor's 2026 projection?
Jonathan Taylor projects 271 half-PPR points (15.9 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 6 (round 1). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
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- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.