Jonathan Taylor
RB · Indianapolis Colts · bye week 13
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Jonathan Taylor, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
285
16.8 per game
Consensus ADP
6
round 1
RB rank
RB3
model has him RB2
2026 range
10th pct 143·median 282·90th pct 487
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 0·median 15·90th 51
Receptions
10th 0·median 2·90th 5
Rush Yds
10th 22·median 68·90th 195
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100+ rush ydsIND v BAL | 29.0¢ | — | no books | over · Kalshi 33.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 110+ rush ydsIND v BAL | 21.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 130+ rush ydsIND v BAL | 11.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 160+ rush ydsIND v BAL | 5.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 7, 1:00 AM ET, books as of Sep 5, 1:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Colts 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
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Projections as of 2026-09-06; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.