AFC South: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the AFC South. Our DAEPA model favors the Jacksonville Jaguars at 9.4 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier

Jacksonville Jaguars9.4+2.6Playoff 2

Houston Texans9.3+2.0Playoff 3

Indianapolis Colts8.6+0.0Average 4

Tennessee Titans6.9-3.7Below Avg

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

AFC South winner market

A dedicated AFC South division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every AFC South team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge

Wk 3Texans at ColtsColts 52%

Wk 5Texans at TitansTexans 60%

Wk 6Texans at JaguarsJaguars 53%

Wk 6Titans at ColtsColts 66%

Wk 8Colts at JaguarsJaguars 65%

Wk 10Jaguars at TitansJaguars 62%

Wk 11Colts at TexansTexans 64%

Wk 12Titans at JaguarsJaguars 69%

Wk 15Jaguars at TexansTexans 55%

Wk 15Colts at TitansColts 52%

Wk 18Titans at TexansTexans 67%

Wk 18Jaguars at ColtsColts 50%

AFC South 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the AFC South in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, projecting 9.4 wins — 0.1 ahead of the next team, the Texans (9.3). Each figure is the mean of our 10,000-season simulation, which plays every team's 17-game schedule out with rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreakers.

What are the projected win totals for the AFC South?

Jaguars 9.4, Texans 9.3, Colts 8.6, Titans 6.9. These are the mean of our 10,000-season simulation — the same figure on every team hub and the win-totals board; compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade AFC South markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC South teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) — which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff — and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do AFC South teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC South teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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