AFC South: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions
The prediction-market read on the AFC South. Our DAEPA model favors the Jacksonville Jaguars at 10.6 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Projected 2026 standings
Jacksonville Jaguars10.6+2.8Playoff2
Houston Texans8.0+1.1Playoff3
Indianapolis Colts7.2-1.2Average4
Tennessee Titans4.9-4.7Below AvgProjected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.
AFC South winner odds
Kalshi = mid of the KXNFLAFCSOUTH bid and ask from our daily capture (a book 10¢ or wider is not shown). Model = share of our 10,000 simulated seasons the team wins the division. “Model vs mkt” is the model's read against the price, in percentage points — context, not a position call.
Beyond the AFC South: Super Bowl LXI champion odds
The title market is the one every division race feeds. Every team's live Kalshi champion price on the KXSB winner series, ranked, updated hourly.
Head-to-head schedule (12 games)
Every AFC South team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).
AFC South 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the AFC South in 2026?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, projecting 10.6 wins — 2.6 ahead of the next team, the Texans (8.0). Each figure is the mean of our 10,000-season simulation, which plays every team's 17-game schedule out with rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreakers.
What are the projected win totals for the AFC South?
Jaguars 10.6, Texans 8.0, Colts 7.2, Titans 4.9. These are the mean of our 10,000-season simulation — the same figure on every team hub and the win-totals board; compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.
Can you trade AFC South markets on Kalshi?
Yes — Kalshi lists a division-winner contract for every NFL division (for this one, KXNFLAFCSOUTH); the table above shows each team's live price beside our model. It also lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC South teams, individual game winners (KXNFLGAME), and conference and Super Bowl champion markets, all CFTC-regulated event contracts.
How many times do AFC South teams play each other in 2026?
Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC South teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.
Get the daily NFL prediction-market read — AFC South edges + every division, free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Every NFL division
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 7 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 6 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
This division in the first-quarter report
The race so far, the market against our simulation, and the games that decide it. Read the report →