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AFC South: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the AFC South. Our DAEPA model favors the Jacksonville Jaguars at 9.9 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier
1Jacksonville Jaguars9.9+2.7Playoff2Indianapolis Colts9.1+0.7Average3Houston Texans9.1+1.3Playoff4Tennessee Titans6.5-4.1Below Avg

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

AFC South winner market

A dedicated AFC South division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every AFC South team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge
Wk 3Texans at ColtsColts 56%
Wk 5Texans at TitansTexans 58%
Wk 6Texans at JaguarsJaguars 61%
Wk 6Titans at ColtsColts 71%
Wk 8Colts at JaguarsJaguars 63%
Wk 10Jaguars at TitansJaguars 63%
Wk 11Colts at TexansTexans 59%
Wk 12Titans at JaguarsJaguars 76%
Wk 15Jaguars at TexansTexans 53%
Wk 15Colts at TitansColts 57%
Wk 18Titans at TexansTexans 72%
Wk 18Jaguars at ColtsColts 52%

AFC South 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the AFC South in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, projecting 9.9 wins — 0.7 ahead of the next team, the Colts (9.1). The model sums single-game win probabilities across all 17 games for each team.

What are the projected win totals for the AFC South?

Jaguars 9.9, Colts 9.1, Texans 9.1, Titans 6.5. These are model projections (Poisson-binomial expected wins); compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade AFC South markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC South teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) one to two weeks before kickoff, and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do AFC South teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC South teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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