MarShawn Lloyd
Week 1 vs MIN — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for MarShawn Lloyd, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has MarShawn Lloyd this week
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices MarShawn Lloyd at 63.0¢ for 30+ rush yds against MIN in Week 1.
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices MarShawn Lloyd at 70.5¢ for 25+ rush yds against MIN in Week 1.
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices MarShawn Lloyd at 49.5¢ for 40+ rush yds against MIN in Week 1, with the best over at Kalshi (58.7¢).
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices MarShawn Lloyd at 56.5¢ for 2+ rec against MIN in Week 1; the 5-book sportsbook consensus implies 57.0%, a 0.5¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (58.5¢) and the best under at Novig (44.1¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
The Ladder — MarShawn Lloyd
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Books | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25+ rush yds | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
| 30+ rush yds | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
| 40+ rush yds | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
| 50+ rush yds | 🔒 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ rush ydsGB v MIN | 35.5¢ | 50.2%2bk·int | -14.7¢ | over · Kalshi 41.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 3+ recGB v MIN | 28.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 35.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rush ydsGB v MIN | 70.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 30+ rush ydsGB v MIN | 63.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 40+ rush ydsGB v MIN | 49.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 58.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ recGB v MIN | 56.5¢ | 57.0%5bk | -0.5¢ | over · Novig 58.5¢under · Novig 44.1¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, books as of Sep 9, 6:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Packers 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 330 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about MarShawn Lloyd
What are MarShawn Lloyd's Kalshi props for Week 1?
As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 6 strikes on MarShawn Lloyd against MIN: 30+ rush yds at 63.0¢, 25+ rush yds at 70.5¢, 40+ rush yds at 49.5¢, 2+ rec at 56.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
What is MarShawn Lloyd's 2026 projection?
MarShawn Lloyd projects a pending total for 2026. The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
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Projections as of 2026-09-09; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.