NFC North: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the NFC North. Our DAEPA model favors the Detroit Lions at 9.8 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier

Detroit Lions9.8+2.5Playoff 2

Green Bay Packers9.6+3.0Playoff 3

Chicago Bears8.8+1.4Playoff 4

Minnesota Vikings7.2-2.6Below Avg

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

NFC North winner market

A dedicated NFC North division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every NFC North team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge

Wk 1Packers at VikingsPackers 60%

Wk 2Vikings at BearsBears 68%

Wk 5Bears at PackersPackers 63%

Wk 7Packers at LionsLions 56%

Wk 8Vikings at LionsLions 66%

Wk 10Vikings at PackersPackers 67%

Wk 12Bears at LionsLions 62%

Wk 15Lions at VikingsLions 57%

Wk 16Packers at BearsBears 53%

Wk 17Lions at BearsBears 54%

Wk 18Lions at PackersPackers 60%

Wk 18Bears at VikingsBears 54%

NFC North 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the NFC North in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, projecting 9.8 wins — 0.1 ahead of the next team, the Packers (9.6). Each figure is the mean of our 10,000-season simulation, which plays every team's 17-game schedule out with rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreakers.

What are the projected win totals for the NFC North?

Lions 9.8, Packers 9.6, Bears 8.8, Vikings 7.2. These are the mean of our 10,000-season simulation — the same figure on every team hub and the win-totals board; compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade NFC North markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four NFC North teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) — which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff — and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do NFC North teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four NFC North teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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