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AFC East: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the AFC East. Our DAEPA model favors the New England Patriots at 10.7 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier

New England Patriots10.7+5.5Contender 2

Buffalo Bills9.9+3.8Playoff 3

New York Jets6.8-4.0Below Avg 4

Miami Dolphins6.8-3.3Below Avg

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

AFC East winner market

A dedicated AFC East division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every AFC East team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge

Wk 4Patriots at BillsBills 55%

Wk 6Jets at PatriotsPatriots 76%

Wk 7Dolphins at JetsJets 55%

Wk 8Patriots at DolphinsPatriots 67%

Wk 10Bills at JetsBills 67%

Wk 11Dolphins at BillsBills 71%

Wk 12Jets at DolphinsDolphins 61%

Wk 13Bills at PatriotsPatriots 62%

Wk 16Patriots at JetsPatriots 69%

Wk 17Bills at DolphinsBills 64%

Wk 18Jets at BillsBills 74%

Wk 18Dolphins at PatriotsPatriots 74%

AFC East 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the AFC East in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the New England Patriots in the AFC East, projecting 10.7 wins — 0.8 ahead of the next team, the Bills (9.9). Each figure is the mean of our 10,000-season simulation, which plays every team's 17-game schedule out with rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreakers.

What are the projected win totals for the AFC East?

Patriots 10.7, Bills 9.9, Jets 6.8, Dolphins 6.8. These are the mean of our 10,000-season simulation — the same figure on every team hub and the win-totals board; compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade AFC East markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC East teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) — which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff — and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do AFC East teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC East teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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