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AFC East: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the AFC East. Our DAEPA model favors the New England Patriots at 10.1 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier
1New England Patriots10.1+3.3Playoff2Buffalo Bills9.6+2.2Playoff3Miami Dolphins7.4-2.0Average4New York Jets7.1-3.0Below Avg

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

AFC East winner market

A dedicated AFC East division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every AFC East team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge
Wk 4Patriots at BillsBills 54%
Wk 6Jets at PatriotsPatriots 74%
Wk 7Dolphins at JetsJets 54%
Wk 8Patriots at DolphinsPatriots 58%
Wk 10Bills at JetsBills 58%
Wk 11Dolphins at BillsBills 69%
Wk 12Jets at DolphinsDolphins 60%
Wk 13Bills at PatriotsPatriots 61%
Wk 16Patriots at JetsPatriots 61%
Wk 17Bills at DolphinsBills 55%
Wk 18Jets at BillsBills 72%
Wk 18Dolphins at PatriotsPatriots 72%

AFC East 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the AFC East in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the New England Patriots in the AFC East, projecting 10.1 wins — 0.5 ahead of the next team, the Bills (9.6). The model sums single-game win probabilities across all 17 games for each team.

What are the projected win totals for the AFC East?

Patriots 10.1, Bills 9.6, Dolphins 7.4, Jets 7.1. These are model projections (Poisson-binomial expected wins); compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade AFC East markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC East teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) one to two weeks before kickoff, and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do AFC East teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC East teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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