James Cook
RB · Buffalo Bills · bye week 7
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for James Cook, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
221
13.0 per game
Consensus ADP
9
round 1
RB rank
RB5
model has him RB9
2026 range
10th pct 111·median 218·90th pct 378
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 0·median 12·90th 64
Receptions
10th 0·median 2·90th 4
Rush Yds
10th 16·median 50·90th 143
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90+ rush ydsBUF v HOU | 31.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 110+ rush ydsBUF v HOU | 14.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 120+ rush ydsBUF v HOU | 14.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 130+ rush ydsBUF v HOU | 10.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 140+ rush ydsBUF v HOU | 7.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 150+ rush ydsBUF v HOU | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 7, 12:30 AM ET, books as of Sep 5, 1:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Bills 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
More NFL Markets
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-06; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.