How to read an NFL game page: Kalshi vs our model, prop gaps and ladders
Every NFL game gets a free page that sets the Kalshi price beside our model’s number, the player-prop prices beside the books’ consensus, and the full spread ladder. This guide walks through each box in the order it appears, in a 4-minute video and in writing below.
Watch on its own page, with chapters →
This week’s example game
The video walks through a Week 4 game. Open the next game on the schedule and follow along with live numbers: Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 →
Quick Answer
The Quick Answer is the game in one paragraph: who our number favors, by how many points, the Kalshi price when the market is listed, and whether there is a position. It is dated and written to stand alone, so you can read it, or quote it, without scrolling.
Under it sits one link to every NFL edge on the board for the week, so the next click is a comparison, not a search.
Kickoff Board
The Kickoff Board puts the market price, our number and the gap between them on one row per contract, with a bar that shows the direction of the edge at a glance. Each row carries a call: Strong position, Position, Pass, Fade or Conflict.
Pass and Fade rows get the same weight as the positions on purpose. "We looked and there is nothing here" is a finding, and a board that only shows action would hide it.
Sized rows show a quarter-Kelly fraction of bankroll and link into the Kelly calculator, so you size the position against your own bankroll instead of a made-up unit.
The board is built game by game. A page without one simply does not show the box; it never fills it with last week’s rows.
The game read
The game read is the written analysis under the game’s heading. It changes shape with the matchup: a mismatch, a coin flip, a division game, a neutral-site game or a cold-weather game each get a different lead, built from the same numbers the boxes show.
It ends with the market paragraph: the Kalshi price, our number, the gap, and whether that gap clears our floor for a position. When it does not, the read says so and passes.
On a played game the read stays up as the record of the pre-game call, labeled as written before kickoff, and the graded result sits above it.
Prop prices
Prop prices are the market’s numbers, not ours: every Kalshi player-prop strike for the game beside the books’ consensus at the same line, with the cheaper side marked. The widest gaps come first. A gap is a price difference between venues, not a call.
A gap only earns the badge when enough books price the line to make the consensus mean something; thin lines rank below the badged rows.
The game’s full prop page lists every strike Kalshi has priced, side by side with the same consensus.
Model line card
The model line card is the game in one tile: our number, the Kalshi price and the edge between them, with a verdict to buy one side or pass. When there is a position, the line under it names the side and the most you should pay in cents.
When the starting quarterbacks are not confirmed, the card is held and no number is printed: quarterback is the one input big enough to swamp every other term in a game line.
Win probability
The win-probability split shows each team’s chance to win and, under it, whose number that is: the books-anchored fair value when the line is anchored to the market, or our own ratings line when it is not. Madden 27’s simulation of the same game sits underneath for comparison.
Madden shares none of our inputs, which is the point: when two unrelated models agree, the number is sturdier; when they split, the gap is worth a look.
Run this matchup yourself opens the win-probability tool with the same two teams, so you can change the line and watch the probability move.
The Ladder
The Ladder lays our full margin distribution against every spread strike Kalshi lists for the game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder shows whether that lean comes from the middle of the distribution or from its tail, strike by strike.
Each rung is a separate contract with its own price, so the ladder is where you find the strike that is actually mispriced, not just the side.
The ladder image under it is free to share and updates as the market moves.
Power ratings and season outlook
The power ratings table gives each team’s PWR, its rank of 32 and its tier. PWR is points per game above an average team on a neutral field, built from offense, defense and special teams. The season outlook beside it comes from 10,000 simulated seasons on the real 2026 schedule.
The season sim reports average wins and the chance to make the playoffs, win the division and win the Super Bowl. It uses real NFL tiebreakers and no market prices, so it is our view of the season, not the market’s.
Player prop calls
Player prop calls name the side we would take on each player’s contract, YES or NO, at the strike closest to our projection, with the Kalshi price and our tier. Our odds appear only where our probabilities are calibrated; elsewhere the cell shows a dash and the tier is the call.
Each player links to their own page: every strike Kalshi lists, the consensus at the same threshold and the season projection.
How the line was built
Every line starts from the two teams’ power ratings. Home field adds 2.5 points, zeroed on a neutral field. When a starting quarterback is out, a measured QB-out term moves the line, and the read says by how much. The total is the model’s own line.
When the game is anchored to the market, the published probability is the books’ fair value and our own line is shown as the lean, labeled as such. An unresolved starter forks the page into two lines, with and without him, instead of guessing.
The calibration check tells you how often the model has been right at this level of confidence: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024), it compares the band our number falls in with how often those teams actually won.
Kalshi and every venue
The Kalshi block lists the game’s event ticker, the market-implied probability and our number beside it. A Kalshi price in cents is already a probability: 62c means the market gives that team about a 62% chance, with no odds conversion needed.
The venue table under it shows each venue’s own price for the same game. Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract and say so; a venue with no price we can quote gets a link and no number, never a made-up one.
Where Polymarket US lists the game, a separate card compares its price with Kalshi’s, labeled by venue.
Prop ladders
Prop ladders show every Kalshi strike for a player’s stat beside the books’ consensus at the same threshold, with our probability marked at the strike we called. Reading down the rungs shows where the market and the books stop agreeing.
The venue check under each ladder says which side is cheaper where, so you know which venue to enter on before you size anything.
Embed, FAQ and more matchups
At the foot of every game page: the game’s tile and ladder ready to embed on your own site with one line of code, the frequently asked questions for the matchup, more games from the same week, and the link to ask your AI agent about the game through our MCP server.
The strip of other matchups shows our model’s line for each game, labeled as the model’s, so you can jump to the next gap.
Terms used on the page
Start from the NFL hub, the prop board, the spread and win-total ladders, or the Combo Edge Builder.
Prediction markets are exchanges, not sportsbooks: you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only; trade responsibly.