Woody Marks
RB · Houston Texans · bye week 8
This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines →Week 5 results →
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Week 6 vs JAX — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 6 projection for Woody Marks, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Woody Marks this week
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Woody Marks at 44.5¢ for 50+ rush yds against JAX in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 44.8%, a 0.3¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (46.1¢) and the best under at Novig (55¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Woody Marks at 49.5¢ for 15+ rec yds against JAX in Week 6; the 6-book sportsbook consensus implies 50.0%, a 0.5¢ gap, with the best over at Kalshi (51.8¢) and the best under at Novig (49.5¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Woody Marks at 61.0¢ for 40+ rush yds against JAX in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 59.2%, a 1.8¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (62¢) and the best under at Kalshi (41.7¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Woody Marks at 9.5¢ for 2+ TDs against JAX in Week 6.
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 6 — how often he gets there
Every result Woody Marks could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 11·90th 56
Receptions
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 2·90th 4
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 4·median 26·90th 96
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
The Ladder — Woody Marks
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Kalshi prices 3+ rec at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 5+rec——
- 4+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 2–3
- 3+rec53¢—
- 2+rec73¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 76¢, the books imply 73¢ — 1.7 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 15+ rush att at 48¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 18+rush att——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 14–15
- 15+rush att——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 70+ rush+rec yds at 45¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 95+rush+rec yds——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 69–70
- 70+rush+rec yds——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ recHOU v JAX | 51.5¢ | 52.6%6bk | -1.1¢ | over · Kalshi 53.8¢under · Novig 48.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rec ydsHOU v JAX | 49.5¢ | 50.0%6bk | -0.5¢ | over · Kalshi 51.8¢under · Novig 49.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 30+ rush ydsHOU v JAX | 75.5¢ | 73.4%exch | +2.1¢ | over · ProphetX 76.7¢under · Kalshi 27.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 40+ rush ydsHOU v JAX | 61.0¢ | 59.2%exch | +1.8¢ | over · Novig 62¢under · Kalshi 41.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ recHOU v JAX | 74.5¢ | 72.8%exch | +1.7¢ | over · Kalshi 77.3¢under · Kalshi 28.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rec ydsHOU v JAX | 29.0¢ | 29.3%exch | -0.3¢ | over · ProphetX 30.8¢under · Kalshi 73.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 50+ rush ydsHOU v JAX | 44.5¢ | 44.8%exch | -0.3¢ | over · Novig 46.1¢under · Novig 55¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDHOU v JAX | 42.5¢ | 42.4%exch | +0.1¢ | over · Novig 43.5¢under · Novig 59¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ TDsHOU v JAX | 9.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 40+ rec ydsHOU v JAX | 12.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 13.8¢under · Kalshi 89.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 4+ recHOU v JAX | 31.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Fanatics 33.3¢under · Kalshi 71.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 5+ recHOU v JAX | 16.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Fanatics 18.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rush attHOU v JAX | 47.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 18+ rush attHOU v JAX | 26.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 70+ rush+rec ydsHOU v JAX | 45.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 95+ rush+rec ydsHOU v JAX | 20.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rush ydsHOU v JAX | 83.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 84.9¢under · Kalshi 18¢ | Kalshi → |
| 60+ rush ydsHOU v JAX | 31.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 33.5¢under · Kalshi 70.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 70+ rush ydsHOU v JAX | 22.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 24.1¢under · Kalshi 80.2¢ | Kalshi → |
| 100+ rush ydsHOU v JAX | 6.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 7.5¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, books as of Oct 17, 7:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
165
9.7 per game
Consensus ADP
53
round 5
RB rank
RB16
model has him RB29
2026 range
10th pct 83·median 163·90th pct 282
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Texans 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Woody Marks
What are Woody Marks's Kalshi props for Week 6?
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi lists 20 strikes on Woody Marks against JAX: 50+ rush yds at 44.5¢, 15+ rec yds at 49.5¢, 40+ rush yds at 61.0¢, 2+ TDs at 9.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Woody Marks 50+ rush yds?
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, the cheapest over is Novig at 46.1¢ (next best 46.7¢), and the cheapest under is Novig at 55¢ (next best 57.7¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Woody Marks's 2026 projection?
Woody Marks projects 165 half-PPR points (9.7 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 53 (round 5). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
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- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
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- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.