Week 6 vs JAX — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 6 projection for Dalton Schultz, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Dalton Schultz this week
As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Dalton Schultz at 20.0¢ for anytime TD against JAX in Week 6, with the best over at Novig (21¢) and the best under at Novig (81.5¢).
As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Dalton Schultz at 15.5¢ for 60+ rec yds against JAX in Week 6, with the best over at ESPN Bet (16.7¢) and the best under at Kalshi (85.9¢).
As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Dalton Schultz at 9.5¢ for 70+ rec yds against JAX in Week 6, with the best over at ProphetX (11¢) and the best under at Kalshi (92.5¢).
As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Dalton Schultz at 34.5¢ for 40+ rec yds against JAX in Week 6, with the best over at ESPN Bet (36.4¢) and the best under at Kalshi (68.6¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 6 — how often he gets there
Every result Dalton Schultz could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
66%of outcomes reach 25+ rec yds
0%coin flip100%
10th11·median34·90th94
Flagged WATCH — our input on this one is provenance-limited or contradicted by news, and it is graded separately.
Receptions
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th2·median4·90th8
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.
Our position on Dalton Schultz
What a trader actually pays, not the mid — the ask to buy a YES, 100 minus the bid to buy a NO. A disagreement is not a guarantee.
Dalton Schultz under 5 receptions
Play
5+ receptions — NO
You pay
45¢
Book
55 / 57
Open interest
7,717
Our number
63.5% (+18.5pp)
The widest position on the 1 PM card and the one the market has moved toward us on — open interest went from roughly 970 to 7,700 in a day while the price barely moved. Worth stating plainly: the three books that price this strike put the over near 57%, so they are against us here. This is a model position, not a consensus one.
Where to rest it: Rest the NO at 45. It has been filling all day at that level and the book is two cents wide; there is no reason to cross for it.
Market is the Kalshi price of the side we are calling; the model figure is our probability of that same outcome; divergence is the gap between them in percentage points. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Oracle Ladders venue check
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 54¢, the books imply 53¢ — 0.4 points below the book read.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
Dalton Schultz's headline Kalshi ladder this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.
Embed this player’s prop ladder
A live card locked to Dalton Schultz — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Dalton Schultz with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, books as of Oct 17, 11:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
120
7.0 per game
Consensus ADP
176
round 15
TE rank
TE22
model has him TE22
2026 range
10th pct68·median116·90th pct190
Measured, not simulated. Our TE projections have landed inside this band 75% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at TE.
Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Dalton Schultz
What are Dalton Schultz's Kalshi props for Week 6?
As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, Kalshi lists 13 strikes on Dalton Schultz against JAX: anytime TD at 20.0¢, 60+ rec yds at 15.5¢, 70+ rec yds at 9.5¢, 40+ rec yds at 34.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Dalton Schultz anytime TD?
As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, the cheapest over is Novig at 21¢ (next best 21.7¢), and the cheapest under is Novig at 81.5¢ (next best 82.1¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Dalton Schultz's 2026 projection?
Dalton Schultz projects 120 half-PPR points (7.0 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 176 (round 15). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
