NFL Player Prop Prices — Kalshi vs Sportsbook Consensus vs Novig
Every NFL player prop Kalshi lists this week, priced against what the big books agree on at the same line and what the other exchanges are asking. A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is a probability — which makes the comparison direct. Where Kalshi is cheaper than everyone else for a side, the gap says so in cents.
New to the maker seat? Markets 101: market maker vs market taker — why resting a bid beats paying the ask.
New here? How to read a prop price gap (4-min guide) →
2026 · Week 10 · Kalshi as of Nov 12, 3:20 AM ET · books as of Nov 12, 2:15 AM ET · 2868 Kalshi prop strikes listed · 846 with a real two-sided book · 35 priced against 3+ books · widest gap: Van Jefferson 2+ rec, Kalshi 6¢ below consensus
This week on the boardNFL Week 10 predictions →Week 11 predictions →Week 9 results →
Week 10 gamesCommanders at GiantsPatriots at LionsChiefs at FalconsTexans at BrownsVikings at PackersDolphins at ColtsPanthers at SaintsBills at JetsJaguars at TitansRams at CardinalsSeahawks at Raiders49ers at CowboysSteelers at BengalsChargers at Ravens
This week at a glance
Oracle calls
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our backtest validates, we publish a call — YES or NO on the contract as Kalshi lists it (“3+ receptions”, not “over 2.5”), with the market price of that side beside it. This is the only thing on the page that says play. Priced Nov 10. Projections refresh Wednesday 10 AM ET and again Friday 4 PM ET after the final game-status report; Kalshi prices every 10 minutes.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig OkonkwoTEWatch | 30+ rec ydsover 29.5 | WAS vs NYG | NO | 28.9 | — | 40¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Devin SingletaryRBWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | NYG vs WAS | YES | 2.0 | 56% | 42¢ | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Isaiah LikelyTEWatch | 40+ rec ydsover 39.5 | NYG vs WAS | NOSkew | 43.9 | — | 39¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Isaiah LikelyTEWatch | 5+ receptionsover 4.5 | NYG vs WAS | NO | 4.1 | 58% | 47¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Austin EkelerRBWatch | 10+ rec ydsover 9.5 | WAS vs NYG | YES | 16.0 | — | 41¢ | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Van JeffersonWRWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | WAS vs NYG | YES | 2.1 | 55% | 48¢ | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Devin SingletaryRBWatch | 10+ rec ydsover 9.5 | NYG vs WAS | YES | 15.8 | — | 47¢ | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
7 of 7 props
Skew — our projection is an average, and on a right-skewed stat a few big games can pull it past a threshold most games never reach. The call comes from the full distribution, not the average; the badge says the two disagree. Never the top call.
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Prop market board
Every Kalshi strike this week. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents — positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books. Exchange quotes are shown raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call — and it is read across two clocks: Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes, the sportsbook consensus hourly, so late in an hour a gap can be a fresh Kalshi mid against a book median up to an hour old. Both times are stated on the board.
14 games · 846 two-sided strikes · + 2,022 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced · book consensus as of Nov 12, 2:15 AM ET · open a game to load its strikes.
BUF @ NYJ35 two-sided strikes · 10 players · show strikes ▾
CAR @ NO51 two-sided strikes · 12 players · show strikes ▾
HOU @ CLE60 two-sided strikes · 12 players · show strikes ▾
JAX @ TEN38 two-sided strikes · 14 players · show strikes ▾
KC @ ATL46 two-sided strikes · 12 players · show strikes ▾
LAC @ BAL4 two-sided strikes · 4 players · show strikes ▾
LAR @ ARI32 two-sided strikes · 13 players · show strikes ▾
MIA @ IND25 two-sided strikes · 11 players · show strikes ▾
MIN @ GB65 two-sided strikes · 15 players · show strikes ▾
NE @ DET44 two-sided strikes · 14 players · show strikes ▾
PIT @ CIN64 two-sided strikes · 14 players · show strikes ▾
SEA @ LV73 two-sided strikes · 14 players · show strikes ▾
SF @ DAL45 two-sided strikes · 11 players · show strikes ▾
WAS @ NYG264 two-sided strikes · 21 players · show strikes ▾
Build a combo →WAS @ NYG full ladder →
- NYG: Cam Skattebo, Darnell Mooney, Devin Singletary, Isaiah Likely, J.J. McCarthy, Malachi Fields, Malik Nabers, NY Giants D/ST, Theo Johnson
- WAS: Antonio Williams, Austin Ekeler, Chig Okonkwo, Jaden Bradley, Jayden Daniels, John Bates, Luke McCaffrey, Rachaad White, Stefon Diggs, Treylon Burks, Van Jefferson, WAS Commanders D/ST
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Week 10 props
1892 player props listed at the same threshold on both venues across 14 games · cost to buy after fees · as of 3:20 AM ET · Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
Where Kalshi and Polymarket US differ most this week
- Chiefs at Falcons · Josh Downs 50+ rec yds: Kalshi 25.3¢ · Polymarket US 10.9¢ after fees — Polymarket US 14.4¢ less
- Rams at Cardinals · Xavier Smith anytime TD: Kalshi 15.9¢ · Polymarket US 2.2¢ after fees — Polymarket US 13.7¢ less
- Vikings at Packers · MarShawn Lloyd 20+ rush yds: Kalshi 34.5¢ · Polymarket US 22.6¢ after fees — Polymarket US 12¢ less
- Chargers at Ravens · Josh Cuevas anytime TD: Kalshi 12.7¢ · Polymarket US 2.2¢ after fees — Polymarket US 10.6¢ less
- Steelers at Bengals · Darnell Washington 60+ rec yds: Kalshi 19¢ · Polymarket US 9.8¢ after fees — Polymarket US 9.3¢ less
- Seahawks at Raiders · Zach Charbonnet 80+ rush yds: Kalshi 29.4¢ · Polymarket US 38.2¢ after fees — Kalshi 8.8¢ less
- 49ers at Cowboys · Brandin Cooks anytime TD: Kalshi 10.6¢ · Polymarket US 2.2¢ after fees — Polymarket US 8.4¢ less
- Dolphins at Colts · Ashton Dulin anytime TD: Kalshi 20.1¢ · Polymarket US 11.9¢ after fees — Polymarket US 8.1¢ less
- Seahawks at Raiders · Jadarian Price 40+ rush yds: Kalshi 54.7¢ · Polymarket US 62.3¢ after fees — Kalshi 7.5¢ less
- Texans at Browns · C.J. Stroud 4+ pass TDs: Kalshi 9.6¢ · Polymarket US 2.2¢ after fees — Polymarket US 7.4¢ less
Not every market is listed on both venues. Each row is the same player, stat and threshold on both venues; each game’s page lists every matched prop and the ones only one venue lists. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee. Prices older than 30 minutes show as no current price.
The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike
The prop board shows strikes; the Ladder shows the whole margin distribution beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.
MCP · nfl_prop_board
Season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket.com, widest gaps
Updated Nov 12, 2:20 AM ETThe same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket.com mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.
| Player · market | Kalshi | Polymarket.com | Gap | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenRushing touchdowns leader | 10.5¢ | 16.0¢ | -5.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| Jordan LovePassing yards leader | 28.0¢ | 23.1¢ | +4.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| Jahmyr GibbsRushing touchdowns leader | 19.5¢ | 23.5¢ | -4.0¢ | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftRushing touchdowns leader | 8.5¢ | 12.4¢ | -3.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrencePassing touchdowns leader | 2.5¢ | 6.2¢ | -3.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| Jared GoffPassing yards leader | 8.5¢ | 11.5¢ | -3.0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Brock PurdyPassing touchdowns leader | 11.5¢ | 8.9¢ | +2.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordPassing yards leader | 6.0¢ | 8.5¢ | -2.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| Bijan RobinsonRushing yards leader | 21.5¢ | 19.3¢ | +2.2¢ | Kalshi → |
| Derrick HenryRushing touchdowns leader | 2.5¢ | 0.5¢ | +2.1¢ | Kalshi → |
Full season-leader board — 241 players priced on both venues across 11 markets →
Polymarket.com prices are the international book. US Users: Featured Price Not Available; Informational Use Only.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike: exact when a book quotes that line, linearly interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, and refused — shown as off-ladder — when they do not. We never extrapolate past the ladder and never count a line quoted by a single book. Exchange quotes (Novig, ProphetX) are shown exactly as quoted and labelled raw: their ladders are mostly one-sided, and de-vigging one side would invent a number.
Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only — spread within our prop gate and open interest or volume above zero. A strike quoted 1¢/99¢ is listed, not priced, and shows as such. A gap wider than 30 cents on a booked strike is flagged check rather than published: on a liquid market that size of disagreement is far likelier to be a stale quote than a price.
We are not claiming to beat the market. The Oracle calls come from a prop backtest graded against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it tells us whether a stated 10-point edge behaves like ten points — calibration — and nothing about beat rate. The measure that would settle it is closing line value, captured live from Week 1 and published once there is a season of it. The game model underneath, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games (2013–2024): 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, 0.664 log loss — figures that grade game outcomes, not props.
NFL player props on Kalshi — FAQ
What is on the NFL prop market board?
Every player-prop contract Kalshi lists for the current NFL week — passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown, one row per strike. Beside each Kalshi price sits the sportsbook consensus probability read at that exact strike, the prices Novig and ProphetX quote for the same line, and the gap between Kalshi and consensus in cents. Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes; the sportsbook consensus is re-read hourly, and the board says when each was last read.
What does the gap column mean?
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is an implied probability. The gap is that price minus the sportsbook consensus probability at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over higher than the books; negative means Kalshi is cheaper. We tag a gap at 5¢ or more when at least three books underpin the consensus, and a wide gap at 8¢. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation — it is where two markets disagree, which is where a trader should look first.
Why do some rows say "listed · no book" or "off-ladder"?
Kalshi lists a week’s prop strikes early and most are not priced until a day or two before kickoff — a 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a book, and we never manufacture a mid from it. Off-ladder means the sportsbooks quote lines that do not bracket that Kalshi strike; we read the book curve at a strike only when it sits between two real quoted lines, and we never extrapolate past the ladder.
Does Polymarket have NFL player props?
Not weekly ones. Polymarket lists season-long leader markets — passing, rushing and receiving yards leaders, receptions and touchdown leaders, MVP and the AP awards — but no per-game player props, so there is no Polymarket column on the weekly board. Kalshi is the only prediction market with a weekly prop ladder, which is why this board is built around it.
Why does the board say YES or NO on "3+ receptions" instead of over/under 2.5?
Because that is the contract. Every Kalshi NFL player prop is an "X or more" market — 3+ receptions, 50+ rushing yards, 4+ passing touchdowns — and a YES contract pays $1 if the player gets there. The sportsbook phrasing "over 2.5" describes the same event, and we keep it as a muted note on each row, but a reader comparing a 2.6-reception projection to "2.5" gets the wrong answer: the contract needs 3. So the call is YES or NO on the contract, the market price shown is the price of the side we are calling, and the edge is stated on that side. Where our average projection sits on the other side of the threshold from our call — a right-skewed stat where a few big games lift the average — the row carries a SKEW badge.
What is an Oracle call, and does the model beat the market?
An Oracle call is a strike where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our own backtest validates, that we publish it as a PLAY or a WATCH. We do not claim the model beats the market. Our prop backtest grades against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it is a calibration check — does a stated 10-point edge behave like 10 points — and nothing more. The honest measure is closing line value, captured live from Week 1, and we will publish it once we have a season of it.
How accurate is the model behind the Oracle calls?
The game model these projections descend from, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games from 2013–2024 in a walk-forward backtest: 59.6% straight up, a Brier score of 0.236 and log loss of 0.664. Those figures grade game outcomes, not player props; the prop layer is newer, which is why we publish CLV rather than borrowing the game model’s record.
Which prop types get Oracle calls, and why not all of them?
Rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and passing touchdowns. Passing yards and anytime touchdown are deliberately never published as calls, even when Kalshi lists them and our model shows a gap: across 10,161 graded player-weeks from 2024 and 2025 the top edge decile hits between 54% and 66% on the four we publish, 46% on passing yards, and anytime touchdown fails the same test. Their Kalshi prices still appear on the market board — the price is real even where our opinion is not worth stating.
Every player on this board has a page — projection, range, every booked Kalshi strike. Browse all player pages →
Before you trade a prop: Kalshi's DNP rule for player props (what happens if a player doesn't play) and Kalshi NFL tie rules.
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
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- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or game-winner price into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale