PMP · MMAPFL Dubai
Main Event · PFL Heavyweight World Championship · Heavyweight
Vadim Nemkov20-2
VSSergei Bilostenniy15-4
Market opens soon
MMA · Prediction MarketsPart of The 7 Oracles
Part of The 7 OraclesMMA Prediction Markets
PFL odds and predictions read straight off the prediction markets — the World Tournament “Road to $1M” hub plus every event card as a tale of the tape. Market-derived, never a fabricated price.
The 7 OraclesPMP · MMAPFL DubaiSat, Nov 14Quick Answer
This week's PFL card is PFL Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy, Saturday, November 14 on TBA. No Kalshi or Polymarket contract or book line has posted yet; each bout flips to a price the moment one does. Next: PFL Lyon (Dec 19).
Featured hub
PFL World Tournament — Road to $1M →
Eight single-elimination divisional brackets, $1 million to each champion. Live price-to-win futures as they list across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Upcoming PFL cards
This week on the market — UFC
UFC cards trade on both Kalshi and Polymarket. We read them here alongside our PFL coverage — same tale of the tape, same live market read.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every edge on the site, the moment it opens — $150/yr
Pro is the Desk against the live price: the Fed divergence read, the 15-minute strike grids, every race where Kalshi and Polymarket.com disagree, the full price-gap board, Gridiron Edge on every NFL game and prop, Thee Oracle, and edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens.
Go Pro →
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
PFL predictions — the graded record so far
Every PFL bout we've covered, settled against the official result and the de-vigged reference line that was on the board beforehand.
Cards graded
20
Bouts graded
218
Favourites
78-19
80% won
Priced at
70%
+10pp vs actual
Favourite = the side favoured by the de-vigged reference line, not a PredictionMarketsPicks position — we don't publish a graded MMA pick ledger, so this measures the market, not us. Bouts without a two-way line are excluded from the rates (97 of 218 graded bouts qualify).
PFL results — every graded card
PFLFinalPFL Chicago — Fri, Oct 16
PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2
Wintrust Arena · Chicago, Illinois · ESPN2 & ESPN Deportes (main card) · ESPN App (prelims)
✓ Jena Bishop def. Liz Carmouche · Unanimous decision
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL Africa Morocco — Sat, Oct 10
PFL Africa 3: Morocco — Kane vs. Medkouri
Mohammed V Sports Complex · Casablanca, Morocco · DAZN & the PFL App · STARZPLAY (Middle East & North Africa) · SuperSport, Canal+ & SportyTV (Sub-Saharan Africa)
✓ Abdoulaye Kane def. Badr Medkouri · TKO (elbows)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL MENA 11 — Fri, Oct 2
PFL MENA 11: Nada vs. Elsaidy 3
Global Theatre, Boulevard City · Riyadh, Saudi Arabia · YouTube (free) & the PFL App
✓ Mostafa Rashed Nada def. Osama Elsaidy · Submission (guillotine choke)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL x RIZIN Osaka — Thu, Sep 10
Super RIZIN.5: Shaidulloev vs. McKee
Kyocera Dome Osaka · Osaka · RIZIN.TV
✓ Razhabali Shaidulloev def. AJ McKee · Decision (unanimous)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL Tampa — Sat, Aug 22
PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira
Benchmark International Arena · Tampa, FL · ESPN / ESPN+
✓ Cris Cyborg def. Ketlen Vieira · Decision (unanimous)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL Charlotte — Fri, Aug 7
PFL Charlotte: Battle vs. Rosta
Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC · ESPN / ESPN App
✓ Bryan Battle def. Dalton Rosta · Split decision
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL New York — Fri, Jul 31
PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs. Colgan
UBS Arena · Long Island, New York · ESPN / ESPN App
✓ Usman Nurmagomedov def. Archie Colgan · KO (punches)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL Washington DC — Sat, Jul 25
PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Rodriguez
CareFirst Arena · Washington, D.C. · ESPN / ESPN App
✓ Thad Jean def. Ernesto Rodriguez · TKO (punches)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL Austin — Sat, Jul 18
PFL Austin: Eblen vs. Kasanganay 2
Moody Center · Austin, Texas · ESPN2 / ESPN+
✓ Johnny Eblen def. Impa Kasanganay · KO
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL MENA 10 — Fri, Jul 10
PFL MENA 10: No Fear, No Mercy
Boulevard City · Riyadh, Saudi Arabia · YouTube (free) & the PFL App
✓ Hattan Alsaif def. Dania Ouhachi · TKO (ground and pound)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL San Diego — Sat, Jun 27
PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev
Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, California · ESPN2 / ESPN+
✓ AJ McKee def. Salamat Isbulaev · Unanimous decision
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL Africa Nigeria — Sat, Jun 13
PFL Africa 2: Nigeria — Campos vs. Adeshina
Eko Convention Center · Lagos, Nigeria
✓ Ignacio Campos def. Wasi Adeshina · Submission (rear-naked choke)
See the graded card →PFLFinalPFL Africa Pretoria — Fri, Apr 10
PFL Africa 1: Pretoria — Ndebele vs. Clemente
SunBet Arena · Pretoria, South Africa
✓ Nkosi Ndebele def. Michele Clemente · Unanimous decision
See the graded card →PFL prediction markets, explained
UFC terms dominate the prediction markets today, but PFL is wide open — and that's the opportunity. We read PFL cards straight off the markets: each fighter's price is the market-implied probability they win, quoted in cents and shown as comma-free American odds. Pick a card above for the full tale of the tape, or open the World Tournament hub for the Road-to-$1M futures.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
MMA prediction markets — frequently asked
Where can you trade PFL and MMA prediction markets?
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, lists combat-fight contracts, and PFL bouts have traded on Kalshi inside its KXMMAFIGHT series. These are prediction markets, not a sportsbook — you take a yes/no position on a fighter in a contract that settles at $1 or $0.
What does PredictionMarketsPicks cover for MMA?
The PFL World Tournament "Road to $1M" odds hub and every PFL event card as a tale of the tape — records, divisional ranks, the market favorite, a live market-implied win probability and comma-free American odds, plus a card scanner that summarizes what the market says across the whole slate.
How do prediction-market MMA odds work?
Each fighter's price is the market-implied probability they win, quoted in cents (a 69¢ contract implies a 69% chance) and shown as comma-free American odds. Unlike a sportsbook line, the contract settles at $1 if the fighter wins and $0 if they lose, so the price is the probability.
One email 48h before every PFL card, with the full market read. Nothing else.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.