Caleb WilliamsQuestionable · Week 6
QB · Chicago Bears · bye week 10
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Week 6 vs ATL — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 6 projection for Caleb Williams, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Caleb Williams this week
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Caleb Williams at 52.5¢ for 20+ completions against ATL in Week 6.
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Caleb Williams at 20.5¢ for anytime TD against ATL in Week 6, with the best over at Novig (21¢) and the best under at Novig (80¢).
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Caleb Williams at 36.5¢ for 25+ rush yds against ATL in Week 6, with the best over at Kalshi (38.6¢) and the best under at Kalshi (65.6¢).
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Caleb Williams at 48.5¢ for 20+ rush yds against ATL in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 48.7%, a 0.2¢ gap, with the best over at ProphetX (48.1¢) and the best under at DK (53.5¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 6 — how often he gets there
Every result Caleb Williams could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 3·median 19·90th 72
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
The Ladder — Caleb Williams
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Kalshi prices 28+ pass att at 73¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 27–28
- 28+pass att——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 20+ completions at 53¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 19–20
- 20+completions——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 1+ INTs at 43¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 0–1
- 1+INTs——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 5+ rush att at 55¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 4–5
- 5+rush att——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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A live card locked to Caleb Williams — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.
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Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20+ rush ydsCHI v ATL | 48.5¢ | 48.7%2bk | -0.2¢ | over · ProphetX 48.1¢under · DK 53.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 200+ pass ydsCHI v ATL | 68.0¢ | 63.5%exch | +4.5¢ | over · Novig 68.5¢under · Kalshi 35.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 225+ pass ydsCHI v ATL | 52.5¢ | 51.3%exch | +1.2¢ | over · Kalshi 54.7¢under · Kalshi 49.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDCHI v ATL | 20.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Novig 21¢under · Novig 80¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ TDsCHI v ATL | 2.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 28+ pass attCHI v ATL | 72.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 20+ completionsCHI v ATL | 52.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 1+ INTsCHI v ATL | 43.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 2+ pass TDsCHI v ATL | 57.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 250+ pass ydsCHI v ATL | 37.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 40.7¢under · Kalshi 65.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 275+ pass ydsCHI v ATL | 25.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 28.4¢under · Kalshi 77.3¢ | Kalshi → |
| 300+ pass ydsCHI v ATL | 15.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 18¢under · Novig 86¢ | Kalshi → |
| 325+ pass ydsCHI v ATL | 10.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 11.7¢under · Kalshi 91.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 350+ pass ydsCHI v ATL | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 6.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 5+ rush attCHI v ATL | 54.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rush ydsCHI v ATL | 36.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 38.6¢under · Kalshi 65.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 50+ rush ydsCHI v ATL | 7.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 16, 9:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
296
17.4 per game
Consensus ADP
86
round 8
QB rank
QB10
model has him QB17
2026 range
10th pct 221·median 273·90th pct 393
Measured, not simulated. Our QB projections have landed inside this band 80% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at QB.
Bears 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Caleb Williams
What are Caleb Williams's Kalshi props for Week 6?
As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 17 strikes on Caleb Williams against ATL: 20+ completions at 52.5¢, anytime TD at 20.5¢, 25+ rush yds at 36.5¢, 20+ rush yds at 48.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
What is Caleb Williams's 2026 projection?
Caleb Williams projects 296 half-PPR points (17.4 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 86 (round 8). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
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- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
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- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
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- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.