Christian McCaffrey
RB · San Francisco 49ers · bye week 8
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Christian McCaffrey, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
250
14.7 per game
Consensus ADP
7
round 1
RB rank
RB4
model has him RB7
2026 range
10th pct 125·median 247·90th pct 428
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 12·median 38·90th 105
Receptions
10th 2·median 5·90th 10
Rush Yds
10th 17·median 52·90th 149
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60+ rush ydsSF v LAR | 47.5¢ | 49.4%6bk | -1.9¢ | over · Kalshi 49.8¢under · ESPN Bet 52.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 5+ recSF v LAR | 48.0¢ | 49.6%4bk | -1.6¢ | over · BetRivers 48.3¢under · Novig 51.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rec ydsSF v LAR | 84.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 40+ rec ydsSF v LAR | 48.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 51.8¢under · ESPN Bet 53.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 70+ rush ydsSF v LAR | 32.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 80+ rush ydsSF v LAR | 22.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 27.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 90+ rush ydsSF v LAR | 15.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 120+ rush ydsSF v LAR | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 130+ rush ydsSF v LAR | 3.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 7, 1:30 AM ET, books as of Sep 5, 1:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
49ers 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
More NFL Markets
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-06; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.