Puka Nacua
WR · Los Angeles Rams · bye week 11
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Puka Nacua, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
279
16.4 per game
Consensus ADP
3
round 1
WR rank
WR1
model has him WR3
2026 range
10th pct 130·median 253·90th pct 411
Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 22·median 67·90th 187
Receptions
10th 3·median 6·90th 12
Clears 6.5: 40% of outcomes
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at WR.
Oracle prop calls
Full prop board →Market is the Kalshi price of the side we are calling; the model figure is our probability of that same outcome; divergence is the gap between them in percentage points. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90+ rec ydsLAR v SF | 52.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · BetRivers 53.9¢under · Kalshi 51.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 120+ rec ydsLAR v SF | 23.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 6+ recLAR v SF | 67.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 74.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 7+ recLAR v SF | 57.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 60.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 8+ recLAR v SF | 43.0¢ | 43.7%5bk | -0.7¢ | over · Kalshi 45.7¢under · DK 58¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 7, 2:00 AM ET, books as of Sep 5, 1:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Rams 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
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- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
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- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-06; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.