Week 6 vs HOU — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 6 projection for Bhayshul Tuten, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Bhayshul Tuten this week
As of Oct 17, 1:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bhayshul Tuten at 59.5¢ for 2+ rec against HOU in Week 6; the 6-book sportsbook consensus implies 58.2%, a 1.3¢ gap, with the best over at Fanatics (57.4¢) and the best under at Novig (42¢).
As of Oct 17, 1:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bhayshul Tuten at 7.5¢ for 2+ TDs against HOU in Week 6.
As of Oct 17, 1:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bhayshul Tuten at 39.5¢ for anytime TD against HOU in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 40.0%, a 0.5¢ gap, with the best over at FD (40.8¢) and the best under at Novig (60¢).
As of Oct 17, 1:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bhayshul Tuten at 37.5¢ for 15+ rec yds against HOU in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 37.2%, a 0.3¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (39.1¢) and the best under at Kalshi (64.6¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 6 — how often he gets there
Every result Bhayshul Tuten could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th0·median11·90th57
Receptions
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th0·median2·90th5
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th13·median40·90th115
Flagged WATCH — our input on this one is provenance-limited or contradicted by news, and it is graded separately.
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.
Our position on Bhayshul Tuten
What a trader actually pays, not the mid — the ask to buy a YES, 100 minus the bid to buy a NO. A disagreement is not a guarantee.
Bhayshul Tuten under 50 rushing yards
Small
50+ rushing yards — NO
You pay
53¢
Book
47 / 50
Open interest
452
Our number
69.1% (+16.1pp)
Four books have this at a coin flip — 49.9% — and our sim has the under near 69%. That is a real gap on a three-cent book, and it is SMALL for a reason a reader should hear: four hundred and fifty contracts is the thinnest book on this page, and the only outside read is the books calling it even. Our sim thinks this game stays on the ground less than the market does; this row is that one opinion, sized like one.
Where to rest it: Small size, resting at 53 (100 minus the 47 bid). Four hundred contracts is the thinnest book on this card and it will not absorb a large order without moving.
Market is the Kalshi price of the side we are calling; the model figure is our probability of that same outcome; divergence is the gap between them in percentage points. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Oracle Ladders venue check
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 85¢, the books imply 82¢ — 2.3 points below the book read.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
Bhayshul Tuten's headline Kalshi ladder this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.
Embed this player’s prop ladder
A live card locked to Bhayshul Tuten — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Bhayshul Tuten with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 17, 1:10 AM ET, books as of Oct 17, 12:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
98
5.7 per game
Consensus ADP
83
round 7
RB rank
RB32
model has him RB54
2026 range
10th pct49·median97·90th pct167
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
The market drafts him 6 spots earlier than our board does at RB — we are lower on him than consensus.
Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Bhayshul Tuten
What are Bhayshul Tuten's Kalshi props for Week 6?
As of Oct 17, 1:10 AM ET, Kalshi lists 21 strikes on Bhayshul Tuten against HOU: 2+ rec at 59.5¢, 2+ TDs at 7.5¢, anytime TD at 39.5¢, 15+ rec yds at 37.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Bhayshul Tuten 2+ rec?
As of Oct 17, 1:10 AM ET, the cheapest over is Fanatics at 57.4¢ (next best 58.3¢), and the cheapest under is Novig at 42¢ (next best 42¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Bhayshul Tuten's 2026 projection?
Bhayshul Tuten projects 98 half-PPR points (5.7 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 83 (round 7). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
