Novig NFL Prediction Markets — How They Work
Novig is the only venue on this board built for one thing: sports. It is a CFTC-designated contract market (since August 4, 2026) where traders set the price against each other — there is no house line and no vig baked into the contract — and it runs in-play markets on every NFL game. Its prices sit beside Kalshi and Polymarket on every matchup page we publish.
What is Novig?
Novig is a peer-to-peer exchange: a contract on an NFL outcome pays $1 if it happens, and the price is where a buyer and a seller meet, not a number a house sets. That is why Novig quotes read as a plain probability with no vig to strip out — the same reason Kalshi prices do — and why we can compare its number directly with ours. It is sports-only, 21+ by choice, and available in most states; the app confirms yours at sign-up.
NFL markets on Novig
Moneylines, spreads and totals
Every NFL game, priced peer-to-peer with no house line.
In-play contracts
Live markets through the game — the feature the other venues on this board mostly lack.
Player props
Same peer-to-peer book; coverage builds through the week.
Novig vs Kalshi: this week's NFL player props, same line, two prices
Updated Oct 18, 4:10 AM ETThis week’s NFL player-prop strikes that both venues price, ranked by how far apart they are. Every number is the venue’s own: a Kalshi mid, a sportsbook’s own line read at that strike, an exchange’s raw quote. The right-hand column is where the cheaper price for each side actually sits, in cents per $1 of payout, Kalshi net of its fee.
| Player · prop | Kalshi | Novig | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Hurst III15+ rec ydsTB v PIT | 43.0% | 67.9% | -24.9pp | over · ProphetX 45.9¢ (next 46.7¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Keenan Allen15+ rec ydsIND v TEN | 81.5% | 92.0% | -10.5pp | over · Kalshi 85.9¢ (next 92¢)under · Kalshi 23.2¢ (next 68.3¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Corey Kiner40+ rush ydsNE v NYJ | 16.0% | 26.0% | -10.0pp | over · Kalshi 19¢ (next 26¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Tyler Allgeier40+ rec ydsARI v LAR | 10.0% | 20.0% | -10.0pp | over · Kalshi 12.7¢ (next 20¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Jayden Daniels275+ pass ydsWAS v SF | 12.5% | 21.0% | -8.5pp | over · Kalshi 15.9¢ (next 20¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Rachaad White15+ rush ydsWAS v SF | 88.5% | 97.0% | -8.5pp | over · Kalshi 89.7¢ (next 97¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Brock Bowers6+ recLV v BUF | 63.0% | 71.0% | -8.0pp | over · Kalshi 65.6¢ (next 71¢)under · Kalshi 39.7¢ (next 40.5¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Keenan Allen25+ rec ydsIND v TEN | 70.5% | 78.0% | -7.5pp | over · Kalshi 73.4¢ (next 77.8¢)under · ProphetX 31.7¢ (next 32.5¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Tyler Warren7+ recIND v TEN | 25.0% | 32.5% | -7.5pp | over · ProphetX 29¢ (next 29.4¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
| Juwan Johnson15+ rec ydsNO v NYG | 82.5% | 90.0% | -7.5pp | over · Kalshi 85.9¢ (next 90¢)under · Kalshi 21.1¢ (next 30¢) | Kalshi → · Novig → |
Full board: 2,756 priced prop strikes this week →Prices are informational; verify the contract before trading.
Where our model disagrees with the market this week
The top NFL game mispricings from Gridiron Edge against live Kalshi prices — the same contracts a Novig reader is comparing. Rotates every 5 minutes; free to embed.
Is it legal? How it works
Novig operates as a CFTC-designated contract market, the same federal status Kalshi holds, so its NFL contracts are regulated event contracts rather than state-licensed sports betting. Until August 2026 it ran a sweepstakes model with a DCM application pending; that is over. Where it is not yet available, the app says so at sign-up.
How it compares to Kalshi
Kalshi is where we price every edge and it lists far more than football — economics, politics, weather, all 50 states. Novig is narrower and, for a reader who only cares about games, arguably sharper: no house edge, in-play pricing and a peer-to-peer book that tends to sit close to the consensus. The matchup pages show both prices side by side so you can see where they disagree; the sign-up credit is $25 on a $10 deposit through our link.
Novig NFL — frequently asked
Is Novig a prediction market or a sportsbook?
A prediction market. Novig is a CFTC-designated contract market where traders buy and sell contracts on NFL outcomes from each other. There is no house setting a line and no vig built into the price — a contract at 60 cents is a 60% implied probability, settling at $1 or $0.
Is Novig legal, and which states can use it?
Novig has been a CFTC-designated contract market since August 4, 2026, so its contracts are federally regulated event contracts, not state-licensed sports betting. It is available in most states and is 21+ by choice; the app confirms your state at sign-up rather than us guessing a count.
Is there a Novig promo or referral code?
Novig’s referral program is link-based: sign up through our link, verify, and deposit at least $10 to receive $25 in trade credits. Our referral code is C92909 if you are asked for one in the app, but the link is what applies it.
Novig vs Kalshi for NFL — which should I use?
Kalshi lists more markets, works in all 50 states and is where our model prices every edge. Novig is sports-only, peer-to-peer with no house edge, and has in-play pricing. Our matchup pages show the Kalshi and Novig prices for the same game side by side; if you only trade games and want to avoid vig, Novig is worth a look.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Market availability varies by platform and state and changes frequently — verify on the platform. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.