Skip to content
THE 7 ORACLESPowered by PredictionMarketsPicks
Pro
FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

15-MINUTE

Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

Bitcoin · gold · silver · oil

MIDTERMS

Every 2026 race priced on Kalshi and Polymarket

Senate · House · governors

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles · bye week 10

This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines →Week 5 results →

Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers

Week 6 vs CAR — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.

Our Week 6 projection for DeVonta Smith, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Where the market has DeVonta Smith this week

A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.

Week 6 — how often he gets there

Every result DeVonta Smith could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.

Rec Yds

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 14·median 44·90th 121

Receptions

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 2·median 4·90th 8

The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.

The week's sharpest prop, across every player

One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.

The Ladder — DeVonta Smith

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

DeVonta SmithReceptionsMARKET READView 5+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 5+ rec at 54¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 5+ rec
YES 55¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 5+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 48¢, the books imply 45¢ — 1.2 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Share this Oracle Ladder

DeVonta Smith Kalshi prop ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every strike vs the sportsbook consensus
DeVonta Smith's headline Kalshi ladder this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Embed this player’s prop ladder

A live card locked to DeVonta Smith — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

Every NFL prediction-market widget.

Article width · 560×300

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-player-ladder/devonta-smith/hero"
  width="560"
  height="300"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="DeVonta Smith — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">DeVonta Smith Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/devonta-smith?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Sidebar · 320×280

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-player-ladder/devonta-smith/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="280"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="DeVonta Smith — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">DeVonta Smith Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/devonta-smith?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Prop market — every Kalshi strike

Full market board →
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for DeVonta Smith with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
ContractKalshiConsensusGapBest priceTrade
5+ recPHI v CAR53.5¢54.7%4bk-1.2¢over · Kalshi 56.7¢under · FD 47.6¢Kalshi →
anytime TDPHI v CAR27.5¢—one-sidedover · Novig 28.5¢under · Kalshi 74.4¢Kalshi →
50+ rec ydsPHI v CAR54.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 59.7¢Kalshi →
60+ rec ydsPHI v CAR44.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 48.7¢Kalshi →
70+ rec ydsPHI v CAR35.0¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 39.7¢Kalshi →
80+ rec ydsPHI v CAR26.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 31.5¢Kalshi →
6+ recPHI v CAR38.0¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 41.7¢Kalshi →

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, books as of Oct 17, 11:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value

Projected points

233

13.7 per game

Consensus ADP

18

round 2

WR rank

WR5

model has him WR10

2026 range

10th pct 109·median 212·90th pct 344

Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.

Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at WR.

Eagles 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

vs WAS

Week 2

at TEN

Week 3

at CHI

Week 4

vs LAR

Week 5

at JAX

Week 6

vs CAR

Week 7

vs DAL

Week 8

at WAS

Week 9

vs NYG

Week 11

vs PIT

Week 12

at DAL

Week 13

at ARI

Week 14

vs IND

Week 15

vs SEA

Week 16

vs HOU

Week 17

at SF

Week 18

at NYG

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about DeVonta Smith

What are DeVonta Smith's Kalshi props for Week 6?

As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, Kalshi lists 7 strikes on DeVonta Smith against CAR: anytime TD at 27.5¢, 60+ rec yds at 44.5¢, 5+ rec at 53.5¢, 80+ rec yds at 26.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.

Where is the best price on DeVonta Smith anytime TD?

As of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET, the cheapest over is Novig at 28.5¢ (next best 29.4¢), and the cheapest under is Kalshi at 74.4¢ (next best 75¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.

What is DeVonta Smith's 2026 projection?

DeVonta Smith projects 233 half-PPR points (13.7 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 18 (round 2). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

More NFL Markets

Projections as of 2026-10-17; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.