Ja'Marr Chase
WR · Cincinnati Bengals · bye week 6
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Ja'Marr Chase, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
271
16.0 per game
Consensus ADP
4
round 1
WR rank
WR4
model has him WR4
2026 range
10th pct 126·median 246·90th pct 401
Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 17·median 53·90th 148
Receptions
10th 2·median 5·90th 11
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
The market drafts him 2 spots earlier than our board does at WR — we are lower on him than consensus.
Bengals 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
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- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-06; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.