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NFC South: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the NFC South. Our DAEPA model favors the Atlanta Falcons at 8.6 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier
1Atlanta Falcons8.6-0.6Average2Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.5-0.3Average3New Orleans Saints8.4-1.0Average4Carolina Panthers8.0-1.1Average

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

NFC South winner market

A dedicated NFC South division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every NFC South team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge
Wk 2Panthers at FalconsFalcons 59%
Wk 4Falcons at SaintsSaints 56%
Wk 7Buccaneers at PanthersPanthers 55%
Wk 8Falcons at BuccaneersBuccaneers 58%
Wk 10Panthers at SaintsSaints 58%
Wk 12Panthers at BuccaneersBuccaneers 60%
Wk 14Saints at PanthersPanthers 57%
Wk 15Saints at BuccaneersBuccaneers 60%
Wk 16Buccaneers at FalconsFalcons 56%
Wk 17Saints at FalconsFalcons 58%
Wk 18Falcons at PanthersPanthers 56%
Wk 18Buccaneers at SaintsSaints 55%

NFC South 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the NFC South in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South, projecting 8.6 wins — 0.0 ahead of the next team, the Buccaneers (8.5). The model sums single-game win probabilities across all 17 games for each team.

What are the projected win totals for the NFC South?

Falcons 8.6, Buccaneers 8.5, Saints 8.4, Panthers 8.0. These are model projections (Poisson-binomial expected wins); compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade NFC South markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four NFC South teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) one to two weeks before kickoff, and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do NFC South teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four NFC South teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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