Chris OlaveQuestionable · Week 6

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Week 6 vs NYG — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.

Our Week 6 projection for Chris Olave, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Where the market has Chris Olave this week

As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Chris Olave at 6.5¢ for 2+ TDs against NYG in Week 6.
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Chris Olave at 38.5¢ for anytime TD against NYG in Week 6, with the best over at Novig (40¢) and the best under at Novig (63¢).
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Chris Olave at 49.5¢ for 80+ rec yds against NYG in Week 6; the 6-book sportsbook consensus implies 49.9%, a 0.4¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (50.5¢) and the best under at Novig (51¢).
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Chris Olave at 15.0¢ for 130+ rec yds against NYG in Week 6, with the best over at Kalshi (18¢).

A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.

Week 6 — how often he gets there

Every result Chris Olave could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.

Rec Yds

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 15·median 48·90th 132

Receptions

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 2·median 4·90th 8

The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.

The week's sharpest prop, across every player

One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.

Prop market — every Kalshi strike

Full market board →

Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Chris Olave with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Contract	Kalshi	Consensus	Gap	Best price	Trade
80+ rec ydsNO v NYG	49.5¢	49.9%6bk	-0.4¢	over · Novig 50.5¢under · Novig 51¢	Kalshi →
anytime TDNO v NYG	38.5¢	—	one-sided	over · Novig 40¢under · Novig 63¢	Kalshi →
2+ TDsNO v NYG	6.5¢	—	no books	Kalshi only	Kalshi →
40+ rec ydsNO v NYG	83.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 87.8¢under · Kalshi 21.1¢	Kalshi →
50+ rec ydsNO v NYG	74.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 79.2¢under · Kalshi 30.4¢	Kalshi →
60+ rec ydsNO v NYG	67.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 71.5¢under · Novig 34¢	Kalshi →
70+ rec ydsNO v NYG	60.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 62.7¢under · Kalshi 42.7¢	Kalshi →
90+ rec ydsNO v NYG	41.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Novig 42.9¢under · Novig 62¢	Kalshi →
100+ rec ydsNO v NYG	33.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Novig 35¢under · Kalshi 69.5¢	Kalshi →
120+ rec ydsNO v NYG	17.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 22.2¢	Kalshi →
130+ rec ydsNO v NYG	15.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 18¢	Kalshi →

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, books as of Oct 17, 7:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value

Projected points

215

12.6 per game

Consensus ADP

round 6

WR rank

WR16

model has him WR14

2026 range

10th pct 100·median 195·90th pct 317

Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.

The market drafts him 6 spots later than our board does at WR. That gap is why he carries a value tag.

Saints 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

at DET

Week 2

at BAL

Week 3

vs LV

Week 4

vs ATL

Week 5

vs MIN

Week 6

at NYG

Week 7

vs PIT

Week 9

vs CLE

Week 10

vs CAR

Week 11

at CHI

Week 12

at CIN

Week 13

vs GB

Week 14

at CAR

Week 15

at TB

Week 16

vs ARI

Week 17

at ATL

Week 18

vs TB

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about Chris Olave

What are Chris Olave's Kalshi props for Week 6?

As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi lists 11 strikes on Chris Olave against NYG: 2+ TDs at 6.5¢, anytime TD at 38.5¢, 80+ rec yds at 49.5¢, 130+ rec yds at 15.0¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.

What is Chris Olave's 2026 projection?

Chris Olave projects 215 half-PPR points (12.6 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 62 (round 6). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

More NFL Markets

NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
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Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale

Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.