Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Chris Bell, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
91
5.3 per game
Consensus ADP
204
round 17
WR rank
WR80
model has him WR99
2026 range
10th pct 42·median 82·90th pct 134
Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 0·median 16·90th 56
Receptions
10th 0·median 2·90th 4
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
The market drafts him 4 spots earlier than our board does at WR — we are lower on him than consensus.
Dolphins 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
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- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
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- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-04; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.