December 2026 FOMC Meeting — Prediction Market Odds
Live Kalshi prediction market probabilities for cut, hold, or hike at the Dec 8–9, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print.
Quick Answer
prediction markets put a rate hike at the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting at 78% — the base case on Kalshi's KXFED ladder. The full split is 78% hike, 15% hold, 7% cut. The Bayesian model reprices this after every CPI, NFP, and PCE release, so the number moves with the data.
See the full KXFED ladder →Dec 8–9, 2026
67 days out · Market-implied probabilities from Kalshi
Last updated Oct 3, 8:00 AM UTC
Hike Watch
Dec 8–9, 2026 · 68 days outHike odds for Dec first closed above 50% on Aug 15, and sit at 79% today.
Cross-Market Divergence
Dec 8–9, 2026 · 67 days outThe same meeting, priced on 3 venues at once. On the outcome the market considers most likely, they disagree by 10.7pp.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Futures | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 2.0% | 0.4% | — | 1.7pp |
| 25bp cut | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 1.9pp |
| Hold | 25.0% | 22.5% | 18.3% | 6.7pp |
| 25bp hike | 71.0% | 73.5% | 81.7% | 10.7pp |
| 50bp+ hike | 20.0% | 1.7% | — | 18.3pp |
Widest gap: 18.3pp on 50bp+ hike, between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Which venue has been right
- Sep 15–16, 2026 — actual: 25bp hike · Kalshi 86.5% · Polymarket 88.5% · Futures 94.3% · closest: Futures
Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.
CME fed funds futures implied is derived from the CME fed funds futures curve using the published FedWatch methodology, anchored on the daily effective fed funds rate. It yields a single expected rate, so it is mapped onto a cut / hold / hike triple — it cannot express a 50bp outcome at all, and those cells read “—” rather than 0%.
Updated Oct 3, 4:00 AM ET · refreshes every 30 minutes.
Why the venues disagree, and which has been right across meetings: cross-market divergence.
SEP Dot Plot Watch
Dec 8–9, 2026 · 68 days outKalshi’s KXDOTPLOT ladder prices the Fed’s own forecast — the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Summary of Economic Projections. It is a different question from the rate decision itself: this is where the committee says rates are going, not what it does at this meeting.
Read this ladder carefully. Only 7 of 12 strikes have ever traded and the widest quote is 9¢ wide, so treat each strike as a band rather than a price. And the ladder is not exhaustive: per the contract’s own clarification, if the Fed publishes no SEP at this meeting — or an SEP with no median year-end-2026 projection — every strike resolves No, not void. That risk sits inside all twelve prices at once, which is why they do not add to 100%. How KXDOTPLOT settles →
Kalshi · as of Oct 3, 3:30 AM ET
The case for each side
Dec 8–9, 2026- •Core CPI prints 0.3% MoM or hotter again — inflation not cooling
- •Energy prices keep feeding headline inflation
- •Payrolls solid (NFP 150K+) with unemployment flat
- •Chair and dots keep signalling more tightening is needed
- •Core CPI at or below 0.2% MoM — the last move is working
- •Payrolls weak or unemployment rising
- •Energy prices roll over and headline inflation cools
- •Chair signals patience at the press conference
The leading outcome is listed first. Odds update as economic data prints.
Key Dates
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What Will the Fed Do at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting?
The Dec 8–9, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is one of 8 scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 where the Fed sets the federal funds rate target range. Prediction markets on Kalshi allow traders to take a position on the outcome — cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp, or hike 50bp — with each contract price reflecting the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Unlike opinion polls or analyst forecasts, prediction market prices are backed by real money. When a contract trades at 65¢, market participants are collectively saying there is a 65% probability of that rate decision. As new economic data arrives — CPI, NFP, PCE, GDP — the price moves, and every day's close is kept in the archive so you can see what each print did.
How to Trade the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
The best edge comes from correctly anticipating how upcoming indicator releases will shift the odds. Before a CPI print, ask: if inflation comes in hotter than consensus, how much should cut probability fall? Each indicator's sensitivity page gives the typical move per surprise. If Kalshi doesn't move as much as that history says it should — or Polymarket and futures disagree — that gap is the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are prediction markets pricing for the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi prediction markets price the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting at 78% hike, 15% hold, and 7% cut as of the latest snapshot. Probabilities update every 5 minutes and are shown per strike on this page.
Will the Fed hike rates in December 2026?
As of the latest snapshot, Kalshi prediction markets price a rate hike at the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting at 78% — currently the base case. The full ladder reads 78% hike, 15% hold, 7% cut. That is a live, money-backed read, not a forecast, and the Bayesian model on this page updates it automatically after every major economic data release (CPI, NFP, PCE).
How do you trade the December 2026 FOMC decision on Kalshi?
Kalshi's KXFED market lists a threshold contract for each rate outcome at the Dec 8–9, 2026 meeting. Buy the YES contract on the outcome you expect (cut, hold, or hike); each contract pays $1 if that outcome settles. The edge comes from anticipating how upcoming CPI, NFP, and PCE releases will move the odds before the market fully reprices.