NFL Injury Report, Week 9: Which Defenses Are Breaking
The official injury report, read by unit instead of by name. One missing starter rarely moves a game; several out of the same front seven or secondary does, because the replacements were not in the rotation. This board weights every absence by the player’s share of snaps and flags the defenses that are close to breaking.
Week 9 defensive injury board
Every defense on the Week 9 slate, ranked by how much of its front seven (DL + LB) and secondary (CB + S) is out or questionable. Snap share is summed across the unit — 1.00 is one every-down player. 4 defenses are flagged.
| Defense | Game | Line | Front out (+Q) | Secondary out (+Q) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | vs DAL | +4.5 | 0.87 | 2.00 | CLUSTER · secondary Out: A.J. Haulcy S 91%, Akeem Davis-Gaither LB 87%, Justin Walley CB 76%, Cam Taylor-Britt CB 33% |
| CAR | vs DEN | +2.5 | 1.42 | 1.82 | NEAR Out: Akayleb Evans CB 99%, Bobby Okereke LB 91%, Will Lee CB 82%, Jaelan Phillips LB 52% |
| DEN | @ CAR | −2.5 | 1.02 (+0.41) | 1.62 | NEAR Out: Brandon Jones S 84%, Kris Abrams-Draine CB 78%, Eyioma Uwazurike DL 52%, Jonah Elliss LB 50% Questionable: Dondrea Tillman LB 41% |
| LAR | @ WAS | −4.5 | 0.90 | 0.91 (+0.90) | NEAR Out: Jaylen Watson CB 91%, Kobie Turner DL 50%, Poona Ford DL 40% Questionable: Trent McDuffie CB 90% |
| DET | @ MIA | −6.5 | 1.44 | 0.92 | — Out: Jack Campbell LB 94%, D.J. Reed CB 92%, D.J. Wonnum DL 50% |
| GB | @ NE | +3 | 0.97 | — (+0.96) | — Out: Zaire Franklin LB 97% Questionable: Keisean Nixon CB 96% |
| KC | vs NYJ | −9.5 | 0.33 | 1.44 | — Out: Mansoor Delane CB 96%, L'Jarius Sneed CB 48%, Peter Woods DL 33% |
| DAL | @ IND | −4.5 | 0.46 (+0.69) | — (+0.56) | — Out: Malachi Lawrence LB 46% Questionable: DeMarvion Overshown LB 69%, Joey Porter Jr. CB 56% |
| CHI | vs TB | −6 | 0.36 | 0.66 (+0.68) | — Out: Malik Muhammad CB 66%, Kentavius Street DL 36% Questionable: Tyrique Stevenson CB 68% |
| WAS | vs LAR | +4.5 | 1.43 | — | — Out: Daron Payne DL 81%, Javon Kinlaw DL 62% |
| LV | @ SF | +9.5 | 0.79 | — (+0.52) | — Out: Thomas Booker DL 44%, Jonah Laulu DL 34% Questionable: Darien Porter CB 52% |
| SEA | vs ARI | −8.5 | 1.27 | — | — Out: Leonard Williams DL 74%, Uchenna Nwosu LB 53% |
| ARI | @ SEA | +8.5 | — (+0.62) | — (+0.62) | — Questionable: Walter Nolen DL 62%, Max Melton CB 62% |
| NYJ | @ KC | +9.5 | 0.49 (+0.57) | — | — Out: T'Vondre Sweat DL 49% Questionable: Harrison Phillips DL 57% |
| NYG | @ PHI | −3 | 1.00 | — | — Out: Tremaine Edmunds LB 100% |
| HOU | @ LAC | −5.5 | — | 0.80 | — Out: Reed Blankenship S 80% |
| ATL | vs CIN | +3 | 0.45 | 0.26 | — Out: Samson Ebukam DL 44%, Billy Bowman CB 26% |
| PHI | vs NYG | +3 | 0.67 | — | — Out: Jihaad Campbell LB 67% |
| NO | vs CLE | −3.5 | — | — (+0.65) | — Questionable: Martin Emerson CB 65% |
| CLE | @ NO | +3.5 | 0.62 | — | — Out: Maliek Collins DL 62% |
| MIN | vs BUF | +3 | — | — (+0.52) | — Questionable: Theo Jackson S 52% |
| SF | vs LV | −9.5 | — | — (+0.48) | — Questionable: Upton Stout CB 48% |
| TB | @ CHI | +6 | 0.42 | — | — Out: YaYa Diaby LB 42% |
| BUF | @ MIN | −3 | — (+0.37) | — | — Questionable: Greg Gaines DL 37% |
| CIN | @ ATL | −3 | 0.34 | — | — Out: Cashius Howell DL 34% |
| LAC | vs HOU | +5.5 | — | 0.32 | — Out: Deane Leonard CB 32% |
| MIA | vs DET | +6.5 | — (+0.27) | — | — Questionable: Malik Herring DL 27% |
| NE | vs GB | −3 | — | — | — |
Percentages are each player’s share of defensive snaps over his team’s last four games. Out = listed Out or Doubtful, on injured reserve, or no longer on the roster. Updated nightly Thursday to Sunday from the official report.
This week’s trigger calls
The one spot the history backs: a clustered defense that the market still favours. From 2018–2025, scoring each season only with rules set on the seasons before it, the opponent covered 45-27 (62.5%).
2026 ledger, graded in public
Every defense that actually played a game in a cluster this season, measured from snap counts after the game, and whether its opponent covered the closing line. Trigger spots so far: opponent 0-4.
| Wk | Defense | Opponent | Line | Cluster | Score | Opp ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | DET ★ | ARI | −5.5 | secondary + cb-wipeout | 21–45 | LOSS |
| 5 | NO | MIN | +2.5 | front | 23–13 | COVER |
| 6 | CHI ★ | ATL | −1.5 | front | 23–31 | LOSS |
| 6 | NO ★ | NYG | −1.5 | front | 27–34 | LOSS |
| 6 | TEN | IND | +6.5 | secondary | 20–26 | LOSS |
| 7 | CHI ★ | NE | −3 | front | 24–30 | LOSS |
| 7 | GB | DET | +3.5 | front | 20–17 | LOSS |
| 7 | NO | PIT | +3 | front | 16–10 | COVER |
★ = trigger spot (the clustered defense was favored).
Injury clusters, explained
What is an NFL injury cluster?
A cluster is when one unit of a defense loses several regulars at once: three or more starters out of the front seven (defensive line and linebackers) or the secondary (cornerbacks and safeties), or two full players’ worth of that unit’s snaps. A team can usually absorb one missing starter because the replacement is still an NFL player. Several at once means players who were not in the rotation are playing together, and offenses keep attacking that patched unit.
Does the market price defensive injuries correctly?
Mostly, yes. The exception in our 2013–2025 study is a clustered defense that the market still favours. Scoring each season only with rules set on the seasons before it, the opponent covered 45-27 (62.5%) from 2018–2025, about 1.6 points better than an ordinary game. When the clustered team is the underdog, the line already reflects it. It is a small sample, which is why every 2026 case is graded on this page.
How is “out” decided before the game?
From the official injury report: a player listed Out or Doubtful, on injured reserve, or no longer on the roster counts as out. Questionable players are shown separately, and a defense that becomes a cluster only if its questionable players sit is marked WATCH. Each player’s weight is his share of defensive snaps over his team’s last four games, so a rotational backup counts for less than an every-down starter.
Which matters more, the front seven or the secondary?
In the history, the front seven. Front-seven clusters ran about 1.5 points worse than expected for the defense; secondary clusters barely moved the result, because offenses throw more but the extra passes are not more efficient. The one secondary case that did break was three starting cornerbacks out at once.
Earlier weeks
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 9 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 10 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 8 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Kalshi NFL spread & total ladders, scanned live → — Every NFL strike checked for prices out of order, with Novig and Polymarket US beside it
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket US → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Game-winner, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or game-winner price into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale