Bijan Robinson
RB · Atlanta Falcons · bye week 11
This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines →Week 5 results →
Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers
Week 6 vs CHI — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 6 projection for Bijan Robinson, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Bijan Robinson this week
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bijan Robinson at 53.5¢ for 90+ rush yds against CHI in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 53.8%, a 0.3¢ gap, with the best over at Kalshi (55.7¢) and the best under at Kalshi (48.7¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bijan Robinson at 43.5¢ for 100+ rush yds against CHI in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 42.3%, a 1.2¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (42.9¢) and the best under at Kalshi (58.7¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bijan Robinson at 6.0¢ for 180+ rush yds against CHI in Week 6, with the best over at Kalshi (7.5¢).
- As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi prices Bijan Robinson at 69.5¢ for anytime TD against CHI in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 68.8%, a 0.7¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (69.5¢) and the best under at Novig (31.9¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 6 — how often he gets there
Every result Bijan Robinson could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 23·90th 80
Receptions
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 2·median 3·90th 7
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 21·median 64·90th 186
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
The Ladder — Bijan Robinson
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 53¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 7+rec——
- 6+rec——
- 5+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 4+rec51¢—
- 3+rec——
- 2+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 53¢, the books imply 51¢ — 1.3 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 19+ rush att at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 19+rush att——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 18–19
- 16+rush att——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 130+ rush+rec yds at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 155+rush+rec yds——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 129–130
- 130+rush+rec yds——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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A live card locked to Bijan Robinson — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.
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Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4+ recATL v CHI | 52.5¢ | 51.2%6bk | +1.3¢ | over · BetRivers 52.2¢under · Novig 47.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 100+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 43.5¢ | 42.3%exch | +1.2¢ | over · Novig 42.9¢under · Kalshi 58.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 110+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 34.5¢ | 33.7%exch | +0.8¢ | over · Novig 35¢under · Kalshi 67.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDATL v CHI | 69.5¢ | 68.8%exch | +0.7¢ | over · Novig 69.5¢under · Novig 31.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| 90+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 53.5¢ | 53.8%exch | -0.3¢ | over · Kalshi 55.7¢under · Kalshi 48.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ TDsATL v CHI | 30.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 3+ TDsATL v CHI | 8.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rec ydsATL v CHI | 58.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 60.7¢under · Kalshi 44.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 40+ rec ydsATL v CHI | 32.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 36¢under · Novig 67.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| 60+ rec ydsATL v CHI | 12.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 14.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ recATL v CHI | 86.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 87.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 3+ recATL v CHI | 69.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 72¢under · Kalshi 33.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 5+ recATL v CHI | 32.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 35.6¢under · Novig 71¢ | Kalshi → |
| 6+ recATL v CHI | 19.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Fanatics 21.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 7+ recATL v CHI | 11.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Fanatics 12.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 16+ rush attATL v CHI | 71.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 19+ rush attATL v CHI | 48.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 130+ rush+rec ydsATL v CHI | 49.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 155+ rush+rec ydsATL v CHI | 29.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 50+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 87.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 89.7¢under · Kalshi 14.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 60+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 80.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 83¢under · Kalshi 22.2¢ | Kalshi → |
| 70+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 72.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 74.4¢under · Kalshi 30.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 80+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 63.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 62¢under · Kalshi 39.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 120+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 30.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 32.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 130+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 21.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 25.3¢ | Kalshi → |
| 150+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 10.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 12.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 180+ rush ydsATL v CHI | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 7.5¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, books as of Oct 17, 7:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
261
15.3 per game
Consensus ADP
2
round 1
RB rank
RB2
model has him RB4
2026 range
10th pct 131·median 258·90th pct 446
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Falcons 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Bijan Robinson
What are Bijan Robinson's Kalshi props for Week 6?
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, Kalshi lists 27 strikes on Bijan Robinson against CHI: 90+ rush yds at 53.5¢, 100+ rush yds at 43.5¢, 180+ rush yds at 6.0¢, anytime TD at 69.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Bijan Robinson 90+ rush yds?
As of Oct 17, 7:10 AM ET, the cheapest over is Kalshi at 55.7¢ (next best 56.5¢), and the cheapest under is Kalshi at 48.7¢ (next best 49¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Bijan Robinson's 2026 projection?
Bijan Robinson projects 261 half-PPR points (15.3 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 2 (round 1). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
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- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.