Bijan Robinson
RB · Atlanta Falcons · bye week 11
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Bijan Robinson, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
281
16.5 per game
Consensus ADP
2
round 1
RB rank
RB2
model has him RB3
2026 range
10th pct 141·median 278·90th pct 481
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 10·median 31·90th 87
Receptions
10th 2·median 4·90th 8
Rush Yds
10th 16·median 47·90th 135
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ recATL v PIT | 45.0¢ | 48.1%4bk | -3.1¢ | over · FD 48.5¢under · DK 54.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 90+ rec ydsATL v PIT | 8.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 90+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 31.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 100+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 23.5¢ | — | no books | over · Kalshi 29.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 110+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 19.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 120+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 12.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 140+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 7.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 150+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 5.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 7, 1:00 AM ET, books as of Sep 5, 1:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Falcons 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
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Projections as of 2026-09-06; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.