Benny Ricciardi
Prediction Markets Analyst · FSWA Award Winner · Former Bond Trader
Before prediction markets were a thing, I traded fixed income at a bond desk. You learn fast there that prices are wrong all the time — the edge is in knowing when, by how much, and how long the gap lasts before it closes. That's the exact same game on Kalshi and Polymarket.
I built PredictionMarketsPicks to give serious traders the analytical tools they actually need: EV calculators, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updaters, cross-platform arb detection. The kind of infrastructure a bond desk takes for granted but prediction market traders have had to build themselves — until now. Everything here is free or Pro tier, no fluff.
What I Cover
- →Kalshi — event contracts, daily movers, edge detection
- →Polymarket — market analysis, mispricing identification
- →DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts — platform comparisons
- →Expected value, Kelly Criterion, Bayesian reasoning — applied to real markets
- →Cross-platform arbitrage — when the same event prices differently on two exchanges
- →Weather edge — NWS forecast vs. Kalshi temperature contract pricing
Tools I Built
EV Calculator
Edge percentage and BUY/SELL/SKIP signal
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Optimal position sizing from your edge
Probability Converter
Kalshi prices to implied probability and odds
Bayes Updater
Update your probability as evidence arrives
Base Rate Scanner
Historical frequency vs. current market price
Combo Builder
Multi-leg Kalshi combo probability and payout
KL-Divergence Arb Detector
Cross-platform arbitrage via KL divergence
State Availability Map
Where each platform is legal in the US
Cross-Platform Arb Scanner
Live Kalshi vs. Polymarket price gaps
Thee Oracle
AI pattern analysis on historical edge data
Weather Edge Tool
NWS forecast vs. Kalshi temperature markets
Polymarket Mispricing Scanner
Bayesian swarm flags daily mispricings 5pp+