Kalshi 15-Minute Markets: Every Series, Live
Bitcoin only: same window on Polymarket US →
Kalshi lists no 5-minute crypto window. Polymarket US’s 5-minute bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP windows, with every result: the 5-Minute Board →
Crypto
| Market | Now | YES mid | Settled up (last 96) | Contracts (last 96) | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin KXBTC15M Same window on Polymarket US → | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 6¢ | 51% | 345.1M | CF Benchmarks |
| Ethereum KXETH15M Same window on Polymarket US → | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 5¢ | 50% | 20.6M | CF Benchmarks |
| XRP KXXRP15M Same window on Polymarket US → | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 15¢ | 51% | 16.2M | CF Benchmarks |
| Solana KXSOL15M Same window on Polymarket US → | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 6¢ | 44% | 11.9M | CF Benchmarks |
| Dogecoin KXDOGE15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 8¢ | 48% | 8.1M | CF Benchmarks |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) KXHYPE15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 10¢ | 48% | 4.3M | CF Benchmarks |
| Zcash KXZEC15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 21¢ | 45% | 3.9M | CF Benchmarks |
| NEAR KXNEAR15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 15¢ | 55% | 3.8M | CF Benchmarks |
| BNB KXBNB15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 4¢ | 51% | 3.0M | CF Benchmarks |
| Coin Race KXCRYPTOLEAD15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | n/a | n/a | 102K | CF Benchmarks |
Commodities
| Market | Now | YES mid | Settled up (last 96) | Contracts (last 96) | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold KXGOLD15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 4¢ | 51% | 48.7M | Pyth - Gold |
| Silver KXSILVER15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 3¢ | 53% | 7.2M | Pyth - Silver |
| WTI crude oil KXWTI15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 90¢ | 42% | 12.2M | Pyth - WTI |
| Natural gas KXNATGAS15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 50¢ | 56% | 3.2M | Pyth - NATGAS |
| Copper KXCOPPER15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 2¢ | 49% | 1.3M | Pyth - Copper |
| Platinum KXPLATINUM15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 3¢ | 52% | 1.0M | Pyth - Platinum |
| Palladium KXPALLADIUM15M | Open · closes 4:15 AM ET | 4¢ | 52% | 1.3M | Pyth - Palladium |
Currencies
Listed, not trading yet
Kalshi has certified these series but no window has traded. Each page carries the contract details Kalshi has published and switches to a live board on its own the day the first window lists.
- S&P 500 KXINX15MSettles on: not named yet (placeholder text)
- Nasdaq 100 KXNDQ15MSettles on: not named yet (placeholder text)
- 2-year Treasury yield KX2YRRATE15MSettles on: US Department of the Treasury
- 5-year Treasury yield KX5YRRATE15MSettles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury
- 10-year Treasury yield KX10YRRATE15MSettles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury
- 30-year Treasury yield KX30YRRATE15MSettles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Also listed with no trading history: Cardano (KXADA15M), Bitcoin Cash (KXBCH15M), TON (KXTON15M), Crypto comparison (KXCRYPTOCOMP15M).
How a 15-minute market works
Each window asks one question: will the price at the end of these fifteen minutes be at least the price at the start? The starting reference locks the moment the window opens and Kalshi shows it as the target price, so from then on the contract is a question about a number you already know, on a clock you can read. At the open it is a coin flip; a few minutes in, the odds follow from how far the price sits from the target, how much time is left and how fast the asset has been moving.
The settlement source differs by asset, and it matters when you check a result. Crypto windows compare two 60-second averages of a CF Benchmarks index; commodity windows compare two 1-minute Pyth candle closes, and a candle is labelled by the minute it opens. The full source table, series by series, is in how Kalshi’s 15-minute markets settle. How the 15-minute contract compares with the hourly and daily ladders and the perp on the same coin: which Kalshi clock fits your view. And the question every Bitcoin room asks: is Kalshi’s Bitcoin market rigged? We checked 3,320 windows. For the rule we trade, read our Kalshi 15-minute bitcoin strategy.
Can you beat a 15-minute market?
Not by reading the price alone. We graded 2,764 Bitcoin 15-minute windows from Aug. 29 to Sept. 27, 2026, and in every 10-cent price band the side won within one point of its price: contracts near 46¢ won 45.8% of the time, contracts near 92¢ won 91.4%. Of 3,320 settled windows, exactly half settled up. A fair price is a fair price, and then you pay the fee: in and out near 50¢ costs about 3.5¢ a contract before the spread.
So any edge has to come from somewhere the price hasn't caught up to yet. What that means in practice:
- Trade a view, not a feeling. At the open a window is a coin flip; a few minutes in, its fair odds follow from the distance to the target, the time left and how fast the asset is moving. The Bitcoin 15-minute cockpit shows that fair value next to Kalshi's price, and how often a price like yours has won with this much time left.
- Count the fee before the edge. A gap smaller than the round-trip fee is not a gap. The fee table below shows where it bites hardest.
- Stay out of the final minute unless you mean it. That is when the settlement average is mostly locked in and automated traders reprice faster than any person can tap.
- Size for the photo finish. About one window in eleven was decided by less than $10 of Bitcoin. Size so that a close loss doesn't matter, with the Kelly calculator.
We don't publish a graded record for the 15-minute tools: they show a fair value beside the market, not a pick. The full study, with every price band, is is Kalshi's Bitcoin market rigged?
What a trade costs
Kalshi’s taker fee is 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, charged when your order fills, win or lose.
| Price | Fee per contract | In and out |
|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 0.63¢ | 1.26¢ |
| 30¢ | 1.47¢ | 2.94¢ |
| 50¢ | 1.75¢ | 3.50¢ |
| 70¢ | 1.47¢ | 2.94¢ |
| 90¢ | 0.63¢ | 1.26¢ |
Before the spread. Run any size through the Kalshi fee calculator, and see the fee math every 15-minute bot has to beat.
See it in your AI app
Our 15-minute tools, and the other clocks
Kalshi 15-minute markets — frequently asked
What are Kalshi 15-minute markets?
A Kalshi 15-minute market is one up-or-down contract per quarter hour on a single asset. When a window opens, Kalshi locks a reference price; the contract resolves YES if the price at the end of the window is at least that reference, and NO otherwise. A series that trades around the clock opens 96 windows a day, and every window prices, trades and settles on its own.
Which assets does Kalshi list 15-minute markets on?
As of September 26, 2026, Kalshi lists 30 fifteen-minute series and 20 of them trade: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, WTI crude oil, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash, NEAR, BNB, Coin Race, Natural gas, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY. 6 more are certified but not trading yet, including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and four Treasury yields.
What do Kalshi 15-minute markets settle on?
It depends on the asset. Crypto series settle on 60-second averages of CF Benchmarks real-time indexes. Gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, platinum and palladium settle on Pyth 1-minute candle closes, and the currency series on Pyth's published rate. The Treasury-yield series name the US Department of the Treasury, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 series list a placeholder instead of a named source.
What happens if the price ends exactly where it started?
The contract resolves YES. Kalshi’s terms say a window resolves YES if the closing value “is at least” the reference, so an exact tie goes to the YES side on every up-or-down series.
What does a 15-minute trade cost on Kalshi?
Kalshi charges a taker fee of 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, so the fee is largest near 50¢, about 1.75¢ a contract. Getting in and out near a coin flip costs roughly 3.5¢ before the spread, so the market has to be meaningfully wrong before a round trip pays.
Can you beat a Kalshi 15-minute market?
Not by reading the price alone. In 2,764 Bitcoin 15-minute windows we graded from Aug. 29 to Sept. 27, 2026, every 10-cent price band won within one point of its price, and of 3,320 settled windows exactly half settled up. A fair price minus a fee loses on average: in and out near 50¢ costs about 3.5¢ a contract before the spread. An edge has to come from a view the price hasn't caught up to yet, and in the final minute automated traders reprice faster than any person can.
When do Kalshi 15-minute markets trade?
Crypto series run 24/7. Metals and currencies trade on weekdays and stop for the weekend at the Friday 5 PM ET close, while oil and natural gas keep settling into Friday night. The board on this page reads which windows are actually open rather than assuming a schedule.
Does PredictionMarketsPicks make picks on 15-minute markets?
No. The bitcoin, gold and silver tools show a live fair value next to Kalshi’s price, and the series pages show the live book and the last day of settled results. None of it is a pick, nothing is alerted, and nothing here is scored in a track record.
Every price and result on this page is read from Kalshi’s public API. PredictionMarketsPicks is independent of Kalshi and this page makes no picks. Trade responsibly.
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