Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · Detroit Lions · bye week 6
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Jahmyr Gibbs, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Projected points
293
17.2 per game
Consensus ADP
1
round 1
RB rank
RB1
model has him RB1
2026 range
10th pct 147·median 290·90th pct 502
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 0·median 22·90th 76
Clears 29.5: 38% of outcomes
Receptions
10th 2·median 3·90th 7
Rush Yds
10th 18·median 54·90th 155
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at RB.
Oracle prop calls
Full prop board →Market is the Kalshi price of the side we are calling; the model figure is our probability of that same outcome; divergence is the gap between them in percentage points. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15+ rec ydsDET v NO | 76.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 50+ rec ydsDET v NO | 21.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 80+ rec ydsDET v NO | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 7.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 4+ recDET v NO | 59.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 5+ recDET v NO | 42.0¢ | 43.0%4bk | -1.0¢ | over · FD 44.6¢under · DK 58.2¢ | Kalshi → |
| 50+ rush ydsDET v NO | 78.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 60+ rush ydsDET v NO | 68.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 76.3¢ | Kalshi → |
| 80+ rush ydsDET v NO | 53.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 56.7¢under · Novig 50.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 110+ rush ydsDET v NO | 23.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 140+ rush ydsDET v NO | 10.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 150+ rush ydsDET v NO | 7.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 160+ rush ydsDET v NO | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 7, 1:00 AM ET, books as of Sep 5, 1:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Lions 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
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Projections as of 2026-09-06; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.