Biggest NFL Upsets of 2026, by Closing Line
Updated · lines: DraftKings via ESPN
Quick Answer
As of October 25, 2026, the biggest upset of Week 7 (games recapped so far): Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT). The Giants closed +390 at DraftKings (via ESPN), +10 on the spread, and our board had them at 17.6% before kickoff.
39 of 102 recapped 2026 games were won by the closing underdog. Biggest of the season: Cardinals +600 over the Rams in Week 6.
Also in Week 7: Dolphins +180, Buccaneers +142, Falcons +120.
This week's biggest upset · Week 7 (games recapped so far)
Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT)
Every 2026 upset, biggest closing number first
39 closing underdogs have won across the 102 games we have recapped. The price is the winner's closing DraftKings moneyline as ESPN archived it, the spread is from the winner's side, and “our pre-game” is the win probability the matchup page carried before kickoff. Tap a game for its recap.
| # | Wk | Result | Close ML | Spread | Implied | Our pre-game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Cardinals 18, Rams 16 · road | +600 | +13.5 | 14.3% | 13.4% |
| 2 | 7 | Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT) · road | +390 | +10 | 20.4% | 17.6% |
| 3 | 5 | Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 · road | +380 | +8.5 | 20.8% | 21.3% |
| 4 | 1 | Cardinals 26, Chargers 14 · road | +370 | +8.5 | 21.3% | 34.5% |
| 5 | 2 | Browns 23, Buccaneers 19 · road | +330 | +8.5 | 23.3% | 24.0% |
| 6 | 3 | Commanders 33, Seahawks 31 · home | +320 | +8.5 | 23.8% | 24.0% |
| 7 | 2 | Saints 24, Ravens 17 · road | +285 | +8.5 | 26.0% | 22.6% |
| 8 | 4 | Patriots 29, Bills 26 · road | +275 | +7 | 26.7% | 26.8% |
| 9 | 2 | Raiders 26, Chargers 14 · road | +260 | +6.5 | 27.8% | 28.3% |
| 10 | 6 | Titans 26, Colts 20 · road | +240 | +6.5 | 29.4% | 28.3% |
| 11 | 3 | Falcons 35, Packers 14 · road | +195 | +4.5 | 33.9% | 34.5% |
| 12 | 7 | Dolphins 28, Jets 25 · road | +180 | +3.5 | 35.7% | 34.5% |
| 13 | 2 | Vikings 9, Bears 3 · road | +180 | +4.5 | 35.7% | 34.5% |
| 14 | 3 | Raiders 35, Saints 27 · road | +164 | +3.5 | 37.9% | 37.8% |
| 15 | 4 | Panthers 32, Lions 26 · home | +160 | +3.5 | 38.5% | 37.8% |
| 16 | 5 | Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT) · road | +154 | +3.5 | 39.4% | 37.8% |
| 17 | 3 | Steelers 30, Bengals 27 · home | +154 | +3.5 | 39.4% | 37.8% |
| 18 | 3 | Bears 27, Eagles 7 · home | +154 | +3 | 39.4% | 37.8% |
| 19 | 7 | Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13 · road | +142 | +3 | 41.3% | 39.5% |
| 20 | 5 | Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT) · road | +142 | +3 | 41.3% | 37.8% |
| 21 | 6 | Browns 13, Ravens 10 · home | +140 | +3 | 41.7% | 39.5% |
| 22 | 5 | 49ers 32, Seahawks 29 · road | +140 | +3 | 41.7% | 39.5% |
| 23 | 1 | Giants 28, Cowboys 20 · home | +140 | +3 | 41.7% | 50.4% |
| 24 | 6 | Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 (OT) · home | +130 | +3 | 43.5% | 41.3% |
| 25 | 4 | Cowboys 34, Texans 30 · road | +130 | +3 | 43.5% | 39.5% |
| 26 | 4 | Jaguars 22, Bengals 17 · road | +124 | +2.5 | 44.6% | 41.3% |
| 27 | 4 | Browns 27, Steelers 24 · home | +124 | +2.5 | 44.6% | 41.3% |
| 28 | 2 | Bengals 20, Texans 6 · road | +124 | +3 | 44.6% | 41.3% |
| 29 | 7 | Falcons 29, 49ers 20 · home | +120 | +2.5 | 45.5% | 41.3% |
| 30 | 6 | Texans 34, Jaguars 31 · road | +120 | +2.5 | 45.5% | 41.3% |
| 31 | 5 | Packers 31, Bears 7 · home | +110 | +1.5 | 47.6% | 44.7% |
| 32 | 4 | Giants 36, Cardinals 24 · home | +110 | +2.5 | 47.6% | 41.3% |
| 33 | 3 | Browns 21, Panthers 18 · home | +110 | +2.5 | 47.6% | 43.0% |
| 34 | 6 | Packers 23, Cowboys 13 · home | +102 | +1.5 | 49.5% | 53.5% |
| 35 | 3 | Colts 19, Texans 17 · home | +100 | +1.5 | 50.0% | 44.7% |
| 36 | 1 | Jets 23, Titans 10 · road | -102 | +1.5 | 50.5% | 42.0% |
| 37 | 4 | Falcons 45, Saints 24 · road | -105 | +1.5 | 51.2% | 44.7% |
| 38 | 3 | Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16 · road | -105 | +1.5 | 51.2% | 55.3% |
| 39 | 6 | Saints 34, Giants 27 · road | -108 | −1.5 | 51.9% | 51.8% |
Lines: DraftKings via ESPN, one source, not a consensus of every platform. Implied = the closing moneyline as a probability, with the margin still in it. Our pre-game = the stored win probability on each matchup page (anchored to the market line since Week 2). Recapped games only; primetime games join as their recaps are written.
Where the line moved before these games, and how often it moved toward the winner, is on the NFL edges board. Every week's scores and graded calls live on its week hub, and this week's model calls are on NFL predictions.
NFL upsets: questions
What was the biggest upset of NFL Week 7?
Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT). The Giants closed +390 at DraftKings (via ESPN), +10 on the spread, and our board had them at 17.6% before kickoff. 4 closing underdogs won in Week 7 among the games recapped so far: Giants +390, Dolphins +180, Buccaneers +142, Falcons +120.
What is the biggest NFL upset of 2026 so far?
By closing line, Cardinals over the Rams in Week 6: Cardinals 18, Rams 16, with the Cardinals closing +600 at DraftKings (via ESPN), an implied 14.3% with the price's built-in margin still in it.
How many NFL underdogs have won in 2026?
39 of the 102 games we have recapped were won by the team with the longer closing moneyline, about 38%. The count covers recapped games only; a game without a recap is not on this page.
How is an upset defined on this page?
An upset is a game the closing underdog won: the winner had the longer DraftKings moneyline at kickoff, as archived by ESPN. Rows are ranked by that closing price, biggest number first. A tie is not an upset, and a game where both sides closed at the same price has no underdog. One line source, DraftKings via ESPN, not a consensus of every platform.
Did the model see these upsets coming?
Rarely, and by design. Since Week 2 our published win probability is anchored to the market's own line, so it mostly agrees with the market favorite. Of the 39 upsets with a stored pre-game number, our board had the eventual winner above 50% in 4. The pre-game probability column shows the number each matchup page carried before kickoff.
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