Fifteen games are left on the Week 3 slate. Here's one call for each, taken straight off its own game page, and for every position, how to get in: where to rest the order, how to scale in, the price where you walk away, and whether to go tonight or wait for inactives. Nine of the calls are positions. Six are passes, and on each pass we name what we're watching and why it isn't a play. Every game links to its full breakdown, so you can check the work.
The card
Prices are what Kalshi showed at about 7:20 PM ET Saturday. Now is what it costs to take the position this second: the ask for a YES, 100 minus the YES bid for a NO. Rest at is where we'd post our first order. Walk away is the most we'd pay on a resting order. Above it, the edge is too thin to be worth the risk.
| Kick (ET) | Game | The play | Now | Rest at | Walk away | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:00 | LAC @ BUF | Herbert 2+ pass TDs NO | 60¢ | 59¢ | 65¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | CAR @ CLE | Panthers to win | 56¢ | 55¢ | 56¢ · maker only | LEAN |
| 1:00 | NYJ @ DET | LaPorta 5+ rec NO | 53¢ | 52¢ | 55¢ | PLAY · MOD |
| 1:00 | HOU @ IND | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 1:00 | NE @ JAX | Lawrence 2+ pass TDs NO | 51¢ | 50¢ | 56¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | KC @ MIA | E. Johnson 2+ rec YES | 47¢ | 46¢ | 51¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | TEN @ NYG | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 1:00 | CIN @ PIT | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 1:00 | SEA @ WAS | — | — | — | — | PASS · fork |
| 4:05 | ARI @ SF | Cardinals to win | 23¢ | 21¢ | 21¢ · maker only | LEAN · small |
| 4:05 | MIN @ TB | Vikings to win | 53¢ | 52¢ | 52¢ · maker only | LEAN |
| 4:25 | BAL @ DAL | Andrews 5+ rec NO | 60¢ | 59¢ | 62¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 4:25 | LV @ NO | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 8:20 | LAR @ DEN | Nix 2+ pass TDs NO | 59¢ | 58¢ | 61¢ | PLAY · MOD |
| Mon 8:15 | PHI @ CHI | — | — | — | — | PASS · fork |
How the system picks. A prop at PLAY status on our board comes first. PLAY means it cleared every publish gate: direction agreement, the confidence band, no unmodelled absence in the position room, and a real two-sided book. If a game has no PLAY, the next choice is a moneyline the game page's Kickoff Board marks as a Lean. If it has neither, the game is a pass. We don't fill a slot to make the card look full. A pass is a call too.
Five of the six props are NOs. We didn't go looking for that. It's what cleared the gates. It's still worth knowing, because when a card leans that hard one way, the misses tend to come together. Size with that in mind.
How to get in: make the market, don't take it
Every level on this card follows the same four rules.
- Be the bid. Post a resting order on your side and let the market come to you. To buy a NO at 58¢, you post a NO bid at 58, which is the same order as offering the YES at 42. On the thin prop books below, your order will often be the best bid. That's what making the market means here. A resting (maker) fill pays no fee on most standard Kalshi markets. Crossing the spread (taking) costs the taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price), which is about 1.7¢ a contract near a coin flip.
- Scale in, don't lump in. Split your planned size into tranches. The first goes at the Rest at level. The rest go 2¢ to 4¢ better, and only fill if the market drifts your way. If only the first tranche fills, you hold a smaller position at a better price. That's fine.
- The walk-away is a hard stop. It's the most we'd pay on a resting order, meaning our number minus our minimum edge (5 points on a prop, 2.5 on a moneyline Lean). If you have to cross the spread to get filled, knock another 2¢ off it for the fee. Above the walk-away, you're paying for our opinion instead of being paid for it.
- News before size. Inactives post about 90 minutes before each kick. Any play that depends on a teammate's status (Andrews, Johnson, LaPorta) gets a starter tonight and the rest after inactives. The quarterback touchdown unders don't carry that risk, so they can be built tonight.
The three moneyline Leans are maker-only. Each is a 3-to-4-point gap between Kalshi and the rest of the market. Take the ask, pay the fee, and you're left with about a point, which is inside our own noise. Rest the bid or skip it. And don't wait on them: the edge is Kalshi lagging the other venues. When Kalshi catches up, the Lean is gone.
The 1 PM window
Chargers at Bills: Justin Herbert under 2 touchdown passes
NO on 2+ pass TDs · 60¢ now (book 40/42 on the YES, about 2,400 contracts open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 59 (one cent inside the spread), a quarter at 57, a quarter at 55.
- Walk away: above 65 resting, 63 if you're taking.
- Timing: build it tonight. Herbert's status carries no risk. More Chargers linemen on Sunday's inactive list only helps the under, so if the ladder hasn't filled by then, lift your remaining bids toward 62.
Herbert has two touchdowns against three interceptions through two games. His offensive line had eight players miss Wednesday's practice, and he's walking into Buffalo. The risk is the other side of that: the Bills have the best offense in football, and a Chargers team chasing the game throws more. The board clears the under anyway, and it's the HIGH-tier row on the page. The Kickoff Board also shows a small Lean on the Chargers moneyline at 24.5¢ (0.8% quarter-Kelly). That's a price read on a big underdog. The prop is the play. Full breakdown: Chargers vs. Bills Week 3 prediction · Justin Herbert's prop ladder.
Panthers at Browns: Panthers to win
YES on Carolina · 56¢ now (book 55/56, 193,000 contracts open) · LEAN, 1.8% quarter-Kelly.
- Ladder: everything rests at 55. On a book this deep, there's no point laddering below it. It fills or it doesn't.
- Walk away: 56, and only on a resting order. Never cross at 56: the fee takes the whole edge.
- Timing: post it now. The Lean is Kalshi trailing the other venues, and that kind of gap closes before kickoff, not after.
To be clear up front, this is a price play. Our ratings model has the Browns by 1.5. The Lean exists because Kalshi had Carolina at 55.5¢ against a 59% fair value built from the rest of the market's line. You're buying the same team cheaper on Kalshi than it trades anywhere else. You're not buying our opinion of the game. If that distinction bothers you, skip it. It's the reason this is a Lean and not a PLAY. Full breakdown: Panthers vs. Browns Week 3 prediction.
Jets at Lions: Sam LaPorta under 5 receptions
NO on 5+ receptions · 53¢ now (book 47/48 on the YES, about 860 open) · PLAY, MODERATE.
- Ladder: half at 52 (the current NO bid), half at 50.
- Walk away: above 55 resting. At 53 as a taker you're right at the line, so rest instead.
- Timing: starter tonight, second half after Lions inactives (about 11:30 AM ET). If a Detroit wide receiver is ruled out, LaPorta's target share goes up. In that case, stop adding and keep what you have.
Kalshi has five LaPorta catches as a coin flip, and our projection sits just under five. That makes this a small gap on a fair-looking price, which is why it's MODERATE and not HIGH. The page also shows LaPorta 40+ receiving yards on the same side. We're taking the catches, because receiving yards is a stat family we don't promote to a headline play right now. Full breakdown: Jets vs. Lions Week 3 prediction · Sam LaPorta.
Texans at Colts: Pass
The interesting number in this game is a trap. Dalton Schultz at 6+ catches is the only Kalshi-vs-books gap of 5¢ or more on the entire Week 3 prop board: Kalshi YES at 42¢ against a five-book consensus near 47%. But our own read on Schultz points the other way, he hadn't practised midweek, and the Kickoff Board flags his row as a conflict. When the price and our number disagree and the player's status is open, we don't have a play. Houston is also without Nico Collins. Full breakdown: Texans vs. Colts Week 3 prediction.
Patriots at Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence under 2 touchdown passes
NO on 2+ pass TDs · 51¢ now (book 49/50 on the YES, about 230 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 50, half at 48.
- Walk away: above 56 resting, 54 taking.
- Timing: rest it tonight and leave it. This is the thinnest book on the card, and it deepens Sunday morning. Don't size up past what the book will absorb. If you're the only bid, you are the market, so don't bid against yourself.
The Jaguars' run game hasn't broken 4.7 yards a carry, and New England just held Pittsburgh to three points. This one is decided in the middle of the Jacksonville line, and Lawrence's touchdown count is the most direct way to trade that. Ignore the Parker Washington under you'll see on the page's board. It's flagged as a conflict, not a play. Full breakdown: Patriots vs. Jaguars Week 3 prediction · Trevor Lawrence.
Chiefs at Dolphins: Emmett Johnson 2+ receptions
YES on 2+ receptions · 47¢ now (book 46/47, about 1,150 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 46 (the current bid), half at 44.
- Walk away: above 51 resting, 49 taking.
- Timing: starter tonight, the rest after Kansas City inactives. Another Chiefs back on the inactive list means more work for Johnson, and that's the moment to lift your bid toward 49.
The game page withholds its moneyline call on this one while the model is under review, and nothing here overrides that. This is a prop, priced on its own. Our projection clears two catches, and Kalshi has it under a coin flip. It's the only YES among the six props, and it's the only one where you need something to happen rather than not happen. Full breakdown: Chiefs vs. Dolphins Week 3 prediction · Emmett Johnson.
Titans at Giants: Pass
This is a QB-adjusted game. Jameis Winston has the Giants job with Jaxson Dart out for the rest of the regular season, the market moved for it days ago, and the board publishes no position off a corrected rating. The closest look is Cam Skattebo at 2+ catches, which sits on WATCH because the gap is bigger than we trust. Full breakdown: Titans vs. Giants Week 3 prediction.
Bengals at Steelers: Pass
This is a great game at a bad price. The Bengals moneyline is priced dead on, 62 against 62. The board's only prop row, Pat Freiermuth under 3.5 catches, is flagged as a conflict. The league's best defense by EPA against a Steelers offense that hasn't reached 300 yards in either game is worth watching. It isn't worth a position. Full breakdown: Bengals vs. Steelers Week 3 prediction.
Seahawks at Commanders: Pass (Oracle Fork)
Seattle hasn't named its quarterback. Sam Darnold was a full participant Thursday, and Drew Lock is the other branch. The page publishes both lines, and a fork doesn't carry a position until it collapses to one. Washington's half is settled: Jayden Daniels is out and Marcus Mariota starts. The Stefon Diggs 4+ catches row is on WATCH. Full breakdown: Seahawks vs. Commanders Week 3 prediction.
The 4 PM window
Cardinals at 49ers: Cardinals to win (small)
YES on Arizona · 23¢ now (book 22/23, 97,000 open) · LEAN, 0.8% quarter-Kelly.
- Ladder: one order at 21.
- Walk away: 21. At 22/23 this is already past our line, so the only version worth having fills on a dip. If the market never gives you 21, you never owned it. That's the plan working.
- Timing: post it tonight and forget it.
This is the one Lean where our ratings model and the price agree on direction. Our line has San Francisco by 7.4 against a market line of 8, and Kalshi had the Cardinals at 21.5¢ against a fair value near 25%. It's small for a reason: Arizona's secondary is coming apart, with one corner on IR, another who didn't practise, and a third still working back from an Achilles. It's a small position on a big underdog at the slowest-paced team in football. Size it like one. Full breakdown: Cardinals vs. 49ers Week 3 prediction.
Vikings at Buccaneers: Vikings to win
YES on Minnesota · 53¢ now (book 52/53, 266,000 open) · LEAN, 1.5% quarter-Kelly.
- Ladder: everything at 52.
- Walk away: 52, resting only. At 53 it's a pass, and crossing is a hard no.
- Timing: post it now, for the same reason as Carolina.
Same caveat as Carolina: our ratings model has Tampa Bay by 2.6. The Lean is Kalshi at 52.5¢ against a 55% fair value from the rest of the market. It's Kyler Murray's first real start as a Viking, behind a defense allowing 12.5 points a game, against an 0-2 team. That's the market's story, and Kalshi is selling it a little cheaper than everyone else. Full breakdown: Vikings vs. Buccaneers Week 3 prediction.
Ravens vs. Cowboys (Rio): Mark Andrews under 5 receptions
NO on 5+ receptions · 60¢ now (book 40/41 on the YES, about 4,700 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: a quarter at 59 tonight, and nothing more until inactives.
- Walk away: above 62 resting, 61 taking.
- Timing: this is the one to wait on. Baltimore's inactives post around 2:55 PM ET. If Zay Flowers is active, build the rest between 59 and 62 resting, or take it up to 61. The book is deep enough to absorb it. If Flowers is out, stop, cancel anything still resting and hold the quarter you have. Andrews becomes the first read, and the under loses its footing.
This is the deepest prop book on the card, so you can get size down without moving it. The risk is Zay Flowers. Baltimore's leading receiver is questionable with a hamstring after only individual drills Friday, and the timing plan above is built around his status. One more note: the game page leads with the 4+ rung because it's closest to our projection. The rung that clears the publish gate is 5+. Full breakdown: Ravens vs. Cowboys Week 3 prediction · Mark Andrews.
Raiders at Saints: Pass
New Orleans lost its rookie left tackle, and Las Vegas is 2-0 against two teams with a combined 0-4 record. Neither fact is a price. The one prop that interests us, Travis Etienne at 2+ catches, sits in a backfield with an absence our model doesn't account for, so it stays on WATCH. Full breakdown: Raiders vs. Saints Week 3 prediction.
Sunday night
Rams at Broncos: Bo Nix under 2 touchdown passes
NO on 2+ pass TDs · 59¢ now (book 41/42 on the YES, about 500 open) · PLAY, MODERATE.
- Ladder: half at 58, half at 56.
- Walk away: above 61 resting, 59 taking. The ask is sitting right on it, so don't take it.
- Timing: there's no rush. You have all day, and SNF props tend to trade most after the early games end. Rest the ladder in the morning and check it after the 4 PM window. If you also want the Rams Lean, rest it at 54 (walk-away 54, maker only). Together, count them as one position.
Neither quarterback is on the injury report, and the board has the under at MODERATE. The Kickoff Board also shows a Lean on the Rams moneyline (Kalshi 54.5¢ against a 57% fair value, 1.4% quarter-Kelly). Both point the same way, toward a quieter night for Denver's passing game. Treat them as one idea, not two positions, and remember Puka Nacua is doubtful for Los Angeles. Full breakdown: Rams vs. Broncos Week 3 prediction · Bo Nix.
Monday night
Eagles at Bears: Pass (Oracle Fork)
Chicago has three quarterbacks, and two of them are hurt. Caleb Williams strained a hamstring, his backup is in the concussion protocol, and Ben Johnson hasn't named a starter. The page publishes a line with Williams and a line without him, and no position comes off either until the starter is confirmed. Saquon Barkley at 70+ rushing yards is on WATCH, and that book is too thin to trade anyway: a 48/53 spread with about 70 contracts open. Full breakdown: Eagles vs. Bears Week 3 prediction.
Before you take any of these
- Correlation. Nix under and the Rams Lean are one idea. Nothing else on the card is meaningfully tied to anything else.
- Sunday morning moves props. Inactives post 90 minutes before kick. A strike that exists Saturday night may not exist at 11 AM. Re-check every resting order after inactives. A walk-away is only as good as the news it was set on.
- The fee is real. It's the whole reason the Leans are maker-only. Run your own strike through the Kalshi fee calculator.
- Size. The Lean sizes are the quarter-Kelly figures from each game page. For the props, HIGH is our top confidence tier. No tier is a guarantee, and the Kelly calculator will turn either into a number against your own bankroll.
Our probability and the edge on every prop above are on each game page's prop table for Pro members. The contract, the side and the price are free, here and on the full prop board.
Every model line for the week, every forked quarterback and every Kalshi price is on the NFL Week 3 predictions hub. If you want the Kalshi-vs-books version of this card, the Oracle Ladders board has it.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ as market-implied probabilities and settle on the real outcome. Availability varies by state. Everything here is analysis with a stated position attached, recorded at a stated price on a stated date. Nothing here is advice. Trade responsibly.