Best NFL Week 3 Favorites, Underdogs, Overs, Unders, and Props: Fade the Field Ep 18

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another edition of Fade the Field. I am Coach Jean Clemens joined always by my guy looking very stealthy in the in the black looking very spelt. That is one Chris James at CJ Florida 9. CJ, how are you doing? Making it happen. You know, I'm trying to slim down a little bit. You know, it's it's fall. We usually fall behind in our workout regimen. So, I'm trying to keep ahead of that whole situation. You're trying to fall forward instead of, you know, bingo. I hear you. I hear you. I'm I'm doing it. It's just a slow, super slow um burn, but I have I've noticed a little bit of of speltiness. I just need to I need to be able to take some more LBs off like like almost a lot of I mean I would I would imagine a lot of Americans and people out there um especially probably need to you know work on that a little bit. Um I digress. How how was your week as far as you know this this this landscape football is crazy. Week two had a lot of what was that like? It didn't it didn't follow script a lot. How was it from that standpoint when you were trying to look at um you know your your portfolio and how you invested? Um just give us a give us a little bit about what it looked like for you last week. Just to put a tight bow on the first commentary, the World Cup let people understand what we as Americans go through with regards to the food and the consumptions and the deliciousness that we have. Deliciousness. So that's number one. Number two, my portfolio actually was weak this week. Week one was excellent. Week two, I call week one a liar and week two ended up being a liar's cousin because I think the average score per game went down by a full nine and a half points almost 10 points an average score per game and especially the Sunday slate it was an underfest. So out of my five best bets was two out of five which is egregious but my best bet did cash. So portfolio is a little light this week, but we're going to get it back here in week three. Yeah. No, I I agree. There were some there were some things that happened that I was not expecting to happen. Um definitely um took a it didn't take a major toll on the portfolio because um I was able to hit a a parlay that I let the people in on um not even a parlay, like a combo that I let the people in on on Thursday night. So, I was I was, you know, able to invest like some profit that I had from a from a previous investment. So, I didn't get hit that hard, but I definitely didn't do what I thought I was going to be able to do, which is like really, you know, hit the market hard um on the NFL and and that was unfortunate. But, you know, we early in the year, we're we're we're trying to give you these things and we get sharper and sharper as we go along the season as we get more information. So, I'm looking forward to this week and what we have a little bit of a slightly different format. We wanted to kind of give you give you all some, you know, some more poignant more pointed um, you know, investments instead of just kind of random. So, check out what we have for you on quarter 1 as we get this thing started. And and in quarter one, we're talking best favorites of the week. Who's the team that you would say is your best favorite of the week? the one that you feel the most confident in investing in this week as a favorite. So they say inspiration is the thing that makes the world work and also time allows you to prepare. There was a team that ended up playing last Thursday that gets three extra days to prepare for their old defensive coordinator. And after losing in the fashion that they did, I think that Dan Campbell and company are looking to put up all the points. Detroit is a safe bet. They're playing the Jets. The Jets have played really good football this year, and kudos to them. But in this matchup, in this particular situation, while I think Garrett Wilson cooks, I think the rest of the team is in for a rude awakening. The Lions are going to try to put up 50 this week. They're going to try to do all the work, and you can actually tease that up. I know I've told you to do this in the past, but this is one where I think it's personal without any negative situation. I think it's Dan Campbell proving, "Hey, you left me. I'mma get after you. We going to hug you after the game, but during the game, I'm going get after you." No, I like that. I like that. I'm I'm I'm a little wary because I feel like the the thing that I never that I don't understand why more defensive coordinators don't do is why they get head coaching jobs and then decide they don't long they no longer want to do the thing that got them the head coaching job in the first place. Right. And so I think I I like the fact that this Jets defense has has kind of come back to life under Aaron Glenn as the as the defensive coordinator, but he doesn't know this offense and he doesn't know this offensive coordinator. So that could be a situation where he just walks into a buzzsaw against a team that really wants to stick it to him and they're they're angry. I like that a lot. For me, I was looking at a team that I think has figured it out on the defensive side of the ball and and mostly because they were able to just pay a a first round pick for an allp pro defensive tackle. And that's Cincinnati. We haven't even seen the offense click yet. We haven't even seen the offense really get their mojo going. But what we have seen is Dexter Lawrence in the middle of this defense is a P R O B L E M. He is a problem. And now you're going to bring in the most mor and like inep looking offense I have seen in the in Okay, second. Second Falcons. Right. The Falcons. You as soon as you put up two, I knew who you were talking about. But they get Michael Penn back. So I don't know if they're going to still be the same. Right. That's fair. They're not going to bench Aaron Rodgers even though they probably should, right? And and he just seems to not want like if he takes one hit, if he takes one big hit in the game, it shuts down everything else for him. He's going out so sad so far in this season. I really thought, okay, he's going to come back for another year. He's going to throw caution to the wind and just say, you know what, if I'm going to go out, I'm going to go out on my shield. He really just seems like he came back for another check. I hope I'm wrong. I don't think it's going to be this week. Give me the Bengals minus three and a half. I think they I I would I would tease this probably I would probably push this up to six because I think the I think the Bengals are going to win by seven or more points. So with the Aaron Rogers thing, it's really sad because for all the people who've seen my content, I do pick on Aaron Rogers because he's not my type of guy. But if you don't think he's a top 10, if not even a top five quarterback of all time, you're doing it wrong. You're doing it wrong. So, we have a we have an exceptional appreciation for him, but he's not coming back like Tom Brady did or Drew Brees later in their careers where it was all on the line. He doesn't look right. I'm hoping that if it looks wrong for the first couple of games, they shut it down. that say it's a core injury or something you can't prove and let Drew Aller get in there so they can start their future over and figure some things out because this is disgusting to watch. Yeah, it's it's really bad. But take advantage of it, right? Like it's really bad. Their defense is good, but it's not that good. They're missing um multiple defensive backs. We don't know if Joey Porter Jr. is going to play. He's undisclosed, right? I I think that that defense is right for the picking and we have not seen this this Bengals offense really click yet. Why not a why not a rival, right? Why not a rival? So, um that's where I'm going. Let's get to quarter two. Best underdog to cover or win. This is the best underdog, the best person that is, I mean, the best team that is on the slate that is is not a favorite. Doesn't matter how big it is, as long as they're not a favorite. Who's your best to cover and or to win outright? So, I'm going to have one that goes against something I've been saying and I'm going to do weeks Wednesdays. Uh, you're going to hear that and hear this guy's name because I've been picking on him, but I think they actually can win this week. It's the Chargers over the Bills. The Bills have been cooking to a certain point where they just feel like a team that should breeze through the Chargers. The Chargers just lost to the Cardinals and the Raiders. NFL, the NFL is a weird place. The Chargers have enough talent. Justin Herbert is good enough at football. Let's let's not get it twisted. He's actually a good quarterback. He's just not as good as some of the guys that I have ahead of him. And I think this is a perfect scenario for you to get an easy cover with a possible straightup win. They're for the straight up win trading at 3 3.8x your money. So, this is a thing you should look into. you. Yeah, I'm gonna, you know, I I I as much as I like a a good Yeah, this seems like it's so left field, it it's going to be right, man. That that that that Buffalo that Buffalo offense is humming. And more for me, it's the it's the Buffalo pass rush that I think might be the problem for, you know, for Herbert. So, I'm going to let you have that one and you can tell me if I'm tripping on this one because the Hudat Nation, they welcome in the Raiders and the Raiders have been surprisingly good even though it's been against some mid competition. I wouldn't necessarily call the New Orleans Saints top tier competition right now. I think that their issues are still their issues and they're going to be their issues for the season. Which is why when when I see a number like um when I see a number like three, I go h it could be three on the number the other way. Like this could be a game they could easily lose or that they could win in a shootout. I think that's one of the things that I'm looking at here. Um I I think that this could be one of those games where the Raiders get their rushing attack going. Um and they're able to possess the ball away. Kurt Cousins is checked down Charlie. So you know like get your Jack Best up and they get back they get back that alien at t at tight end. This is the we should see Brock Bowers for the first time this this year. I think that helps this offense. Give me the Las Vegas Raiders. I'm not going to say they're going to win, even though I want to say they're going to win. I'm going to say I'll take the three points and give me the Raiders to cover right here. So, this was actually one of my calls from the perspective of fantasy football with regards to a must-sit. I said must sit is Tyler Shup. The Raiders have only given up 206 yards passing through the first two games per game. And one of those quarterbacks is Justin Herbert. They've done an excellent job. They're playing a disguised defense behind with an improved level of talent on the back end. The linebackers are really good. They've gotten improvement there. And then you get a pass rush with Max Crosby who whether he wants to be there or not, the number one thing you don't get from Crosby is he's going to give effort the entire time he plays. This is a terrible spot for the Saints. And the only thing that should bring them forward to possibly win this game, if we're keeping it a buck, they got to run the ball and run the ball aggressively. They got to let ETN actually do what he does. If they don't do that, they're going to lose this game and they could lose by double digits. Yeah. And and just so you know, like he's going by Han now, CJ. Like I don't know. I know enough people from [clears throat] uh the Haitian lineage. I'mma straighten this out right quick. You know why he says that is because people in Louisiana, especially some creole folks, can't say certain things. So they say it right. They say it. Yeah. So it's So that's what he heard growing up. Y that's how it went. But it's ETN with me and your sister, your daughter. I'm with you. Yeah. No, no. I I'm with you because in Florida, we have a bajillion Haitian people all over the place. I've never heard one of them say achan. But if that man wants to be You know what? Mama mama call him Clay. I'mma call him Clay. You know what I'm saying? I'mma keep it above 50. His brother still says still says ETN, which is hilarious to me, but I digress. Um, let's take a look at um let's take a look at at at quarter three. As the as the resident Lions rep here, you know how much I love the overunders in games. I think that this is a I think overunders are a a um an underutilized way to build your portfolio because you're not rooting for good or bad. You're just rooting for like you're not rooting for this team or that team. You're just rooting for a number, right? And so, right? Like I think that's the way it goes. I look at this, I look at this Ravens and I look at this Cowboys game, right? And I know people say 52 or 5 and a half, man. I don't know. The Ravens Bo have not really been able to stop people from scoring, as weird as that sounds, because their defense is good. But if you give up 24 to New Orleans and you give up 23 to Indie and you're saying to yourselves, well, okay, well, I don't expect the Ravens to turn the ball over as much as they turned the ball over. I don't expect Hazard. I think they'll be a lot better this week. You know, Z Flowers, even if he's out, they're used to it now. They know how the offense should run. We know the Dallas defense is bad. The Ravens defense is kind of like me. I see 50 plus points all over the place here. And so when I look at this line being at 52 and a half, I can easily see a 28 24, right? Like I could easily see um not a 28 24, but like a 28 um 27. Like I can see a 31 to to 28. I could see one of those games where we get into overtime and both teams score in overtime until, you know, when somebody wins. I see this as a game there's going to be a lot of scoring in. The the Raiders need to get back right after a game that they would rather forget. The Cowboys have to score. They don't have any other way of winning. They have to score points. We just watched Washington put up points on the Cowboys. I I'm going to take this over again. Over 52 52 and a half. That's it. Yep. Over 52 and a half. Um Bengals. Sorry, not Bengals. Ravens and Cowboys. That's my best my best over total for for the week. So, there's a lot of things that go into this one. So, we're going to start here. I looked at three games. This was actually one of the three games I looked at. betting houses move like the Titanic or move like a cruise ship. They pivot very slowly away from something. So the overunder on any Detroit Lions game should be the over. Except I don't like this week for them. So I took them off the slate. I took this one off the slate mainly because I look at the two teams that are going to each other. The Ravens have a defensive-minded coach and they're going to try to prove point. They're going to run the ball and reduce the amount of possessions the other team has. The Cowboys just won a game because of an injury that was disgusting and hopefully no no one out there got to see it, but it was disgusting for Jaden Daniels. I think they try to run the ball. It reduces a little bit of the scoring that could possibly happen. So, you hope for touchdowns at the end of these drives. I like it only from the perspective that the two quarterbacks, I think they're top five quarterbacks, both of them. whatever metric you want to use. If you go less than top seven, argue with your mama about it. But I like that one only because you know that both teams can score and both defenses have deficiencies, especially in the secondary right now with alignment and assignment. So I I like that call. This could be a over game, especially if it goes to overtime. What about What about you? Your your best over total. So, I like YOLO. And I like Yolo as far as a personality when it comes to a quarterback. And you got two YOLO quarterbacks. Bingo. No, no, no. Not even that one. Where you going? Oh, I'mma go out west. Oh, okay. See, now I know people hate on Jacobe Brassette. They say, "Oh, he's just this. He's a professional quarterback. Get that right and keep it right." And Brock Perie has been doubted his whole life. Give me Arizona and San Francisco. Arizona's going to toss that pill around. They're going to score points. I think San Francisco is the better team. They also are going to toss that pill around. Give me the easy over. It's currently a 47 and a half. Now, if the weather doesn't affect this, which I don't think it's scheduled to, I can see this easily going over 60. I see a lot of points in this game. A lot of passes. Give me the over on the passing total as well in this game for attempts. Yeah, I I I I agree. I think that like what I've what I've coined as bretett it and forget it, right? Like he is he has played well so far this year. Like it it wasn't an aberration that he did so well um last year. Like a lot of people just thought, oh, they were out of games and that's why he did well. But he's proving no like I'm I'm pretty darn good at this. And but like when you look at what happened in 2025, 4122, you know, like it it it was it was some lopsided wins, but it was a lot of points scored. And so I agree with you. I think there's the opportunity that this could be a double score victory for the 49ers. But I also think this could be easily a 50 something plus point, maybe even a 60 point game. one of those games that you might want to look at a ladder play on depending upon um what you see early in the game. Let's get to let's get to quarter four. Quarter four. This one always gets gets tricky for me because the best under total and I admittedly don't necessarily like doing under totals because I'm rooting for people to be bad, right? I I don't necessarily like under totals unless I just don't see a way for a team to score. And that's where I find myself with this Seattle versus Washington. I don't see Washington scoring. I don't see them scoring. And if they do score, it's a now. Do I see the Seahawks putting up like 35 points? I don't know if I see them putting up 35 points either because they're going to get in the lead and like you said defensive minded head coach, backup quarterback even though he's played well. They're going to lean on a rushing attack that has um priced a little banged up, but you you've seen them, you know, be able to to multiple running backs out there. I could see this game easily being a double digit win for Seattle, but I could also see this game being a 28 to 28-2 type of of game or 28-4 um type of game. This this this total um or I don't 27 to 14 type. This game right now is at 40 and a half. I'd be surprised game over 40. I would also not be surprised at people thinking it's going to go over 40 and pushing it up before Sunday. And if they do, I think the further you see them push it up, the more you want to take it under because every time they do that, it's usually the opposite of what they think. Um, I could see Seattle getting a lead and then sitting on this lead and then just choking a life out of out of the Commanders with their defense because like um a guy like Terry McLaren, a third level guy, he ain't really doing the best with physicality. We know that he's the Hawk DBs physical. The the interesting thing about Diggs is Diggs doesn't mind physicality. But Diggs will then just try to make it a fight and now he's not as locked in and then you're not going to get the production. Um I think that um as you talked about with Jacobe Brassette and it's interesting that the NFC East now has both of these quarterbacks back going again, right? As you got Jameus Win Giants, you got Marcus Mariota for Washington. But I but I think that Mark Martin, while he's professional quarterback, I think this is the type of defense that gives him problems. Those physical aggressive defenses where he can't just sit back and kind of, you know, make little little quick checks and quick moves and throw the ball. I think he struggles here, especially if he tries to lean on his leg, get him out of trouble because those hits that he's going to take might have him take the same place. Yeah, I like the call from the perspective that you have to look at two factors. Number one, you look at that the defenses at least pose some sort of issue for the offenses they're facing. Obviously, Seattle chose poses an issue for everyone they're facing. And I think actually Washington does a good job against what they're going to be facing from a schematic standpoint. Jack Smith and Jig is probably going to kill them, but with Sam Darnold coming back from an injury, that's the likelihood. I actually think Drew Lock will be a better player in this game, but that's neither here nor there. I think it slows things down. You'll see both teams try to run the ball a little bit more. It will reduce the amount of possessions. Therefore, the under is a good play here. I do like that. I'm going to go to mine. So, I'mma pivot with something that I just said. You look at the quarterbacks and you look at the defenses. The quarterbacks, I think, in this game are both very muted people. They are very close to the vest. They're both trying to prove points for different reasons. One's coming off an injury and trying to prove a point. The other one is being discussed as to whether he should get that second big contract. One defense is amazing and the other defense is quiet as kept getting better. This feels like an easy under for the the Texans versus the Colts because we watched in a game where the Colts scored 30 points and Daniel Jones threw for less than 200 yards. He's not getting that job done. I don't think the Texans allow for Jonathan Taylor to lose his mind on them. So, I don't think the Colts are scoring a bunch of points. Number two, I don't know how the Texans score. Nico Collins might be out for another game. We watched Xavier Hutchkins be the go-to guy in an offense and that was not getting the job done. So, this feels like an easy under game and it's at 42 and a half, which is a number I do not understand. I can't explain with these two teams playing. Yeah, I I can I can agree with you there. like Houston, the more Houston plays, the better their defense is going to get. They're going to see what other teams were able to do to the Colts. Um, a coach who by the way traded away a really good linebacker and like I don't know. Weird decision. I don't know. It just would be great. Like I don't know. Um, Houston is going to run the ball. David Montgomery didn't have his requisite touches. I can see them leaning into the rushing attack. They got duped last week. They got duped by the by the Cincinnati Bengals into thinking they should be throwing the ball 40ome times. You should never throw the ball 40ome times when you have that type of defense. You need to run run and run so that you keep them fresh so that they can stop the other team's offense. if they're if they're not if they're they lost and they gave up 20 points like it it tells you what this game could really be which is a rock fight. Could be a rock fight and I don't know who wins it. I just don't know if I see it getting over the total here. So that's a that's a great call. We've got one more thing to do before we get out of here. We've got overtime. Let's check it out. And in overtime, we've got our best props. Obviously, props normally drop on Thursday, so we're here to kind of give you a little bit of the prop action. CJ, the floor is yours. What do you like today? So, this is going to be pressed for time. So, hopefully you all get to the end of the pod because I'mma keep it a buck because I think this guy can keep it a buck now that he gets a real deal quarterback. I think Drake London's easily going over 70 yards. In fact, I teased it up to 80 yards, the over 2.6 extra money on Kawhi at 80 yards, but I think he can have 100 yards receiving. The one thing Michael Pennix Jr. did last year out of anything was make sure to get this guy the ball because he understands talent will make you successful. Michael Penn is going to throw him every target that he can. And I like that call. Um you get a quarterback back who was going to be hungry, hasn't played in a while, he's going to be juiced up. He's definitely going He targeted Drake London at part of a lot of the last year. Yeah. The reason that people thought Drake London would be like such a big factor in fantasy this year was because of how much he was targeted last year by that quarterback. And so now we'll see if that if that still holds on. The Cowboys gave up 182 yards rushing last week. They gave up 182 yards rushing last week. They gave up 69 to Jaden Daniels who didn't even play the entire game. Let's take that away. First half only. Let's take that away CJ. Right. If we take that away, they gave Rashad White 6.1 yards a carry. His long 14 yards. So, it's not like he just got it in one, you know, in in one in one joint. He was out there running. They gave up 43 yards to Jaori Kroski Merritt on 12 carries. They gave up 24 yards to Kron Allen. That was against Washington. We know what they didn't do against the Giants, which is stop people from running. And in steps, one Derek Henry. Full stop. Oh, by the way, Lamar Jackson's there. Full stop. Full stop. This is where this is where in in in my opin in my opinion this is where there is a smorgusborg of props that you could check out here but mainly or chiefly among them put me down for and and I don't and and I'll tell you guys this cuz cuz I really truly believe this. If you go over to the sevenoracles.com and you should definitely do that. By the way, you should also hit the subscribe button on YouTube. And then if you go over to the sevenoracles.com, you'll see that in our in our combo calculator, there are no there are no anytime touchdown props. You want to know why? Cuz we can't quantify touchdowns. There's no way to actually give you any real statistical data. CJ, you understand this? Touchdowns, like sacks, are random. You can you can quantify to a certain extent you can quantify pressures, right? You can quantify um red zone attempts, right? But you can't necess you can't necessarily say that someone's going to get into the end zone. Except CJ and I told you guys before the year that Derrick Henry was going to lead the league in touchdown rushes through two through two weeks. Guess who's leading in touchdown rushes? Derek Henry is going to run all over this Dallas this Dallas um you know this Dallas defense and he's going to run all over this to a tune of 100 plus yards. 90 plus rushing yards is trading at 52%. It won't be trading at 52% by the time we get to the game. Lamar Jackson over 30, I'm sorry, over 40 on rushing yards is trading at 49%. His season average is 37. That's a that's a long run for Lamar Jackson. Now, I don't necessarily think you have to like stamp the Lamar Jackson one, but have fun with it, right? Have fun with it. But Derrick Henry, go ahead and tee that thing up to 100. te it up to 100, that's going to be 43%. That means you're getting well over your money when you invest in this. Like to me, that's where you're going. 2.24 extra money on Derk Henry as a single as a single prop. That's where I like it. That's my best prop of the week. Am I crazy? Am I crazy? Not only you're not crazy, we can go from the history of how this is gone. Last time the Cowboys played against the Ravens, Derrick Henry, I think had 100 yards at the half. So, we're going to go there first. Secondly, we're going to go to the situation that just happened. They just lost to the New Orleans Saints in a big call out by the four-letter network and all sorts of networks for three letters cuz Derrick Henry only got four or five carries in the second half. Can't do that with the lead. They're going to run Derrick Henry 25 to 30 times in this game. He is going to have over 100 yards. In fact, I think Derrick Henry will probably have over a buck 25. You don't have to tease it to that, but that's what I think his actual output will be based on how much they're going to run this guy against this Cowboys team. Ladder A ladder play alert. A ladder play alert. Check it out. Check it out here. Let's say that you invested you invested money in 100 plus at 43 110 at 34 120 at 29%. Ladies and gentlemen, if he gets 125, you are raking in the profit. You're raking in the return on investment. But if he only gets to 100, you still make money. Bingo. Like this is this is the time and these are the type of things you're looking for. So definitely look at that. Derek Henry over 100 and definitely go over to the sevenoracles.com and check out everything that we're doing over there. Our combo calculator, ladies and gentlemen. This came out of this brain, right? With the help of our our our guy Benny who Benny Ricardi who it is is a wizard with this thing. We put it together. We have troubleshooted it. We we put it through the ringer during the World Cup. It gave us great insight into what was a great combo and what was a bad combo to put out there. whether you're getting your real value or whether you're getting bootleg value. We're telling you to run away. We're telling you it's worth the risk. We're telling you to smash it. We're even telling you how much of your bankroll you should actually look to invest in it. You got to go over there and check that out. Make sure you hit the subscribe button. Make sure you follow my guy um my my guy CJ. CJ, tell them what you got going on and all the jazz. So, I do a weekly podcast that has four episodes per week. It's Chop It Up with CJ. You can find it on YouTube, Chop It Up, WCJ Podcast, Weekside Wednesdays, Turf Talk Thursdays, Fantasy Football Fridays, and Make Good Mondays because I like accountability. You can also find me on Pix 11 if you're in the tri-state area of New York. And I do the fantasy focus for the NY Blitz show. I give you some sleepers. I give you a couple of must starts, must sits. So, I keep you going there. And always you can follow me on X. You see my handle up there. But if you don't see it, it's CJF Florida9. It's at CJ the entire state of Florida spelled out the number nine. Absolutely. You can find me everywhere at Jean Clemens. Keep coming back to the sevenoracles.com YouTube channel. Um the sevenoracles um on X at Jean Clemens onx YouTube. Go over to the website. We need you over there because that's where you can see everything. We've been talking Dance with the Stars. Like I'm I'm locked in. Tatiana Ali trading at 1%. Just go ahead and take a little of that. Even if she doesn't win, if she goes from 1% to 2%, you've doubled your money. That's how this thing is done around here. For CJ, I'm Coach Jean Clemens. Until next time, y'all be blessed.