Fourteen games on Sunday, one call each. Every call comes off its own game page, and every game was checked against Friday's final injury report before it made the card. Eight games have a position, nine positions in all: two rushing and receiving yardage props, three catch lines, three quarterback touchdown positions and the Buffalo under. Two calls changed Sunday morning (Parker Washington and Jordan Love in for Trevor Lawrence and MarShawn Lloyd) when our 8 AM re-price moved the originals off PLAY, and Rams at Eagles went to a pass after the 11:51 AM re-price moved Saquon Barkley's under to WATCH. Six games are passes, and for each one we name what we're watching and why it isn't a play. Every game links to its full breakdown so you can check the work.
The card
Prices are what Kalshi showed at about 4:10 PM ET Saturday; the Buffalo total row and the pass notes were re-read at about 11 PM ET. Now is what the position costs this second: the ask for a YES, 100 minus the YES bid for a NO. Rest at is where we'd post the first order. Walk away is the most we'd pay on a resting order. Above it, the edge is too thin to be worth the risk.
| Kick (ET) | Game | The play | Now | Rest at | Walk away | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:30 | IND vs WAS (London) | Mariota 2+ pass TDs NO | 60¢ | 59¢ | 65¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | TEN @ BAL | Cam Ward 10+ rush yds NO | 49¢ | 48¢ | 52¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | NE @ BUF | James Cook 2+ rec YES | 50¢ | 49¢ | 54¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | NE @ BUF | Total 48.5 UNDER | 45¢ | 44¢ | 46¢ | MODERATE |
| 1:00 | NYJ @ CHI | Braelon Allen 15+ rec yds NO | 59¢ | 58¢ | 64¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | JAX @ CIN | Parker Washington 7+ rec NO | 70¢ | 69¢ | 72¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | DAL @ HOU | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 1:00 | ARI @ NYG | — | — | — | — | PASS · QB-adjusted |
| 1:00 | LAR @ PHI | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 1:00 | GB @ TB | Jordan Love 2+ pass TDs YES | 46¢ | 45¢ | 49¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 4:05 | MIA @ MIN | Chris Bell 3+ rec NO | 51¢ | 50¢ | 56¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 4:25 | KC @ LV | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 4:25 | LAC @ SEA | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 4:25 | DEN @ SF | Bo Nix 2+ pass TDs NO | 55¢ | 54¢ | 59¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 8:20 | DET @ CAR | — | — | — | — | PASS |
How the card was built. A prop at PLAY status on our board comes first. PLAY means it cleared every publish gate: direction agreement, the confidence band, a real two-sided book, enough expected value left after the fee, and no unsettled status in the player's room. That last gate is why this card looks the way it does. The final injury report settled the open statuses on ten teams Friday, and the rows those teams were holding back came through. Nothing here is a WATCH row dressed up as a play.
Seven of the nine positions are unders. That's what cleared, not something we went looking for. It's still worth knowing, because when a card leans one way, the misses tend to arrive together. Size with that in mind.
How to get in
- Be the bid. Post a resting order on your side and let the market come to you. Buying a NO at 48¢ is the same order as offering the YES at 52. A resting (maker) fill pays no fee on the player-prop markets here; game totals are one of the Kalshi series that charge a maker fee, a quarter of the taker rate, so the Buffalo under pays about 0.4¢ a contract at rest. Crossing the spread (taking) costs the taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price), which is 1.75¢ a contract at a coin flip.
- Scale in. Put half your planned size at Rest at. Put the rest 2¢ to 4¢ better, where it only fills if the market drifts your way.
- The walk-away is a hard stop. It's our number minus a 5-point minimum edge. If you have to cross the spread, take another 2¢ off for the fee.
- News before size. Inactives post about 90 minutes before kick. Each play below says whose status matters.
London, 9:30 AM
Colts vs. Commanders: Marcus Mariota under 2 touchdown passes
NO on 2+ pass TDs · 60¢ now (book 40/41 on the YES, about 2,700 contracts open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 59, half at 56.
- Walk away: above 65 resting, 63 taking.
- Timing: build it tonight. This is the earliest kick on the board, and London inactives post before most of the country is awake.
Washington goes to London without Jayden Daniels (elbow), running back Rachaad White and guard Samuel Cosmi, all ruled out. Terry McLaurin is questionable with a hamstring. Mariota makes his second start behind a patched line. He threw three touchdown passes against Seattle last week; the model projects about one here, and Kalshi has two or more at 40%. Indianapolis is without Keenan Allen, which doesn't change the Washington side of this. Full breakdown: Colts vs. Commanders Week 4 prediction · Marcus Mariota.
The 1 PM window
Titans at Ravens: Cam Ward under 10 rushing yards
NO on 10+ rush yds · 49¢ now (book 51/52 on the YES, about 720 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 48, half at 46.
- Walk away: above 52 resting. At 49 as a taker you're right at the line, so rest.
- Timing: starter tonight, the rest after Tennessee inactives (about 11:30 AM ET).
This is the cleanest rushing-yards number on the board. The model projects Ward for 8.7 rushing yards. Kalshi and a five-book consensus both price the over near 52%. Tennessee gets Tony Pollard back with no designation on the final report, and Tyjae Spears is questionable, so the Titans have a real back to give the ball to. Ward has averaged 5.7 yards per pass attempt through three starts. He walks into a Baltimore defense that leans on disguised coverages, and the Ravens just got Lamar Jackson back to full practice. The risk: a quarterback who's getting chased on a lot of dropbacks picks up scramble yards whether he wants them or not. Full breakdown: Titans vs. Ravens Week 4 prediction · Cam Ward.
Patriots at Bills: James Cook 2+ receptions
YES on 2+ receptions · 50¢ now (book 49/50, about 3,000 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 49, half at 47.
- Walk away: above 54 resting, 52 taking.
- Timing: starter tonight, the rest after Buffalo inactives. Ray Davis is questionable (hamstring). If he's inactive, Cook's passing-down work grows, so lift your bid toward 52.
Kalshi and the books agree at a coin flip. Our number is 59%, off a projection of 1.9 catches. It's the deepest book among this week's PLAY rows. One caution: Cook has 3, 1 and 0 catches this season on 4, 3 and 1 targets while Buffalo handed him 21 and 24 carries the last two weeks. The 59% is the model's number; the market's coin flip has the recent usage on its side, so rest it and don't chase. Full breakdown: Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 prediction · James Cook.
Also in this game: the under on 48.5. This is the one game position on the card above our 5-point floor. The engine priced it with about 14 mph of wind in Orchard Park, which takes our line to 48.1; the National Weather Service point forecast for the 1 PM window is lower, 6 to 7 mph, and other models have 11 to 15, so treat the wind as a bonus, not the thesis. The thesis is the number: the books had this game at 48.5 on Tuesday and sit at 50.5 now, Kalshi's ladder is centred near 50, and Kalshi prices the under on 48.5 at 44¢ to 45¢ against our 51%. Rest at 44, walk away above 46. Game totals are one of the Kalshi series that charge a maker fee, so a resting order here pays about 0.4¢ a contract. New England is without Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore and Morgan Moses, which is the case for the over. Price and tier are live on the NFL edges board.
Jets at Bears: Braelon Allen under 15 receiving yards
NO on 15+ rec yds · 59¢ now (book 41/42 on the YES, about 1,570 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 58, half at 55.
- Walk away: above 64 resting, 62 taking.
- Timing: build it tonight. The Jets' outs are already final.
The Jets ruled out Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor. Allen and Isaiah Davis split the backfield, and the model gives the passing-down work to Davis and projects Allen for 10 receiving yards. Kalshi has 15+ at 41%. This row was held at WATCH all week because the status feeds disagreed about Hall. The final report settled that. Chicago is without Caleb Williams; Tyson Bagent is expected to start, with Case Keenum the backup, though the club hasn't named him. Our game line carries a backup-quarterback adjustment and takes no position either way. Full breakdown: Jets vs. Bears Week 4 prediction · Braelon Allen.
Jaguars at Bengals: Parker Washington under 7 receptions
NO on 7+ receptions · 70¢ now (book 30/31 on the YES, about 300 open, read at 8:50 AM ET Sunday) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 69, half at 67.
- Walk away: above 72 resting. The cushion is small and the book is thin, so don't take it at the ask.
- Timing: after Jacksonville inactives (about 11:30 AM ET). Size it small; about 300 contracts are open.
This replaced Saturday's call in this game. Trevor Lawrence under 15 rushing yards moved from PLAY to WATCH overnight, when a one-cent Kalshi tick pushed its gap past the 12-point line where we hold a row for review, and the 8 AM re-price kept it there. The play now is Parker Washington's catch line. The model projects 4.7 receptions, and Kalshi has 7 or more at 30%; our number on the under is 78%. Seven catches is a big day for a receiver projected under five, and that's the case for the under. Cincinnati is without safety Kyle Dugger, which is the case for more Jacksonville passing, so this is the row to size smallest. Full breakdown: Jaguars vs. Bengals Week 4 prediction · Parker Washington.
Cowboys at Texans: Pass
C.J. Stroud's rushing line is the interesting number. Our read is the over, but an absence in Houston's position room is flagged on the row, so it stays on WATCH. Houston is without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. The game line is priced within a couple of points of our number. Full breakdown: Cowboys vs. Texans Week 4 prediction.
Cardinals at Giants: Pass (QB-adjusted)
Jameis Winston has the Giants job, the market moved for it days ago, and the board publishes no game position off a corrected rating. The Giants have no injury designations at all. Full breakdown: Cardinals vs. Giants Week 4 prediction.
Rams at Eagles: Pass
Saturday's call here was Saquon Barkley under 70 rushing yards. Our 11:51 AM ET re-price, run after Philadelphia's inactives posted, moved it from PLAY to WATCH: Kalshi's 70+ moved toward our number, and the gap that's left no longer clears the publish gate. No other prop in this game is at PLAY, so the game is a pass. Philadelphia ruled out six players, including DeVonta Smith, Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert, which is the case for more Barkley than his recent workload says. Full breakdown: Rams vs. Eagles Week 4 prediction · Saquon Barkley.
The number everyone will ask about. On the other side, Puka Nacua is good to go, with no designation on the Rams' final report. That makes the board's widest receiving gap worth explaining. Kalshi has Nacua 75+ receiving yards at 39¢, while four books sit near 50%. Our projection, 63 yards, lands on the same side as Kalshi. When the model agrees with the cheap venue, the books are the outlier and there's no edge to take. If you were going to own the over anyway, Kalshi is the cheapest place to do it. That's a price fact, not a call.
Packers at Buccaneers: Jordan Love 2+ touchdown passes
YES on 2+ pass TDs · 46¢ now (book 45/46, about 4,200 open, read at 8:50 AM ET Sunday) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 45, half at 43.
- Walk away: above 49 resting.
- Timing: starter now, the rest after Green Bay inactives (about 11:30 AM ET).
This replaced Saturday's call in this game. MarShawn Lloyd over 25 rushing yards was priced away overnight, with Kalshi at our 46¢ walk-away, and the strike was off our 8 AM board. Love's touchdowns were the second Green Bay row that cleared Saturday, and they're still PLAY at HIGH. The model projects Love for 1.8 touchdown passes; Kalshi has two or more at about 46%. Tampa Bay starts a rookie, Jalon Daniels, with Baker Mayfield out (thumb), and Green Bay is the road favorite. That's a script where Green Bay controls the game and Love gets red-zone throws. The risk is the same script turning into a ground game: Green Bay's line is without Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk, and a big lead can mean handoffs, not touchdown passes. Full breakdown: Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 4 prediction · Jordan Love.
The 4 PM window
Dolphins at Vikings: Chris Bell under 3 receptions
NO on 3+ receptions · 51¢ now (book 49/50 on the YES, about 160 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 50, half at 48.
- Walk away: above 56 resting.
- Timing: a thin book (about 160 open at 4:10 PM, closer to 600 by late Saturday). Rest it, don't size past what the book holds, and re-check after Miami inactives (about 2:35 PM ET).
Five books have Bell at exactly 50/50 for three catches. The model projects 2.4 and has the under at 61%, HIGH tier on the board. Know what leans against it: Caleb Douglas is out for Miami, which pushes targets toward Bell, not away, and he caught 4 of 8 targets against Kansas City last week. Justin Jefferson is out for Minnesota. The 2:35 PM re-check matters here: if another Miami receiver is a surprise inactive, stop adding. Full breakdown: Dolphins vs. Vikings Week 4 prediction · Chris Bell.
Chiefs at Raiders: Pass
The Kenneth Walker rushing under is the closest look, and it sits on WATCH. The model has him under his recent workload, and the volume-floor gate won't publish an under the model isn't projecting the carries for. Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell is questionable for personal reasons. Full breakdown: Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 4 prediction.
Chargers at Seahawks: Pass
Seattle's Jadarian Price is OUT (chest), but his rushing ladder is still listed on Kalshi. Emanuel Wilson is the back who gets those carries. The Wilson 50-yard gap we saw Saturday afternoon (Kalshi 56¢ against books near 50%) closed by late Saturday; Kalshi is at 49¢ to 50¢, in line with the books, and our model has no published row on it. The board shows a MODERATE lean to buy the Chargers at about 25¢, a 2.3-point edge, under this card's 5-point floor. Full breakdown: Chargers vs. Seahawks Week 4 prediction.
Broncos at 49ers: Bo Nix under 2 touchdown passes
NO on 2+ pass TDs · about 55¢ now (book 45/46 on the YES, about 320 open, the thinnest book on the card) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 54, half at 52.
- Walk away: above 59 resting.
- Timing: no rush. Rest it in the morning and check it again after the 1 PM games.
The model projects Nix for 1.25 touchdown passes; he has thrown 1, 1 and 2 this season. The risk is plain: San Francisco is without Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams, so Nix will have more time than usual. It still clears every gate at HIGH, but this is the one to size a notch smaller. Mike Evans is questionable for the 49ers. Full breakdown: Broncos vs. 49ers Week 4 prediction · Bo Nix.
Sunday night
Lions at Panthers: Pass
Carolina is without Xavier Legette and guard Damien Lewis, and Jalen Coker is questionable. No prop row cleared; they're thin or priced away. The board does show a MODERATE lean to buy Carolina at 36¢, a 2.3-point edge, which is under this card's 5-point floor, so it's a lean, not a play. Full breakdown: Lions vs. Panthers Week 4 prediction.
Before you take any of these
- Correlation. Cook's catches and the Buffalo under are two positions on one game script, so count them that way, and note they lean opposite ways on New England's missing corner: a thinner Patriots secondary helps Cook's over and hurts the under. Love's touchdowns and Parker Washington's catch under are separate games and separate ideas, and so are the two rushing unders.
- Inactives move props. Re-check every resting order after inactives post. A walk-away is only as good as the news it was set on.
- The fee is real. Run your own strike through the Kalshi fee calculator and size with the Kelly calculator.
Our probability and the edge on every prop above are on each game page's prop table for Pro members. The contract, the side and the price are free, here and on the full prop board. Every model line for the week is on the NFL Week 4 predictions hub, and Week 5 is already up. Want this board inside Claude or ChatGPT? Connect the PredictionMarketsPicks NFL tools.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ as market-implied probabilities and settle on the real outcome. Availability varies by state. Everything here is analysis with a stated position attached, recorded at a stated price on a stated date. Nothing here is advice. Trade responsibly.