Fourteen games on Sunday, one call each. Every call comes off its own game page, and every game was checked against Friday's final injury report before it made the card. Nine games have a position, ten positions in all: five rushing and receiving yardage props, two catch lines, two quarterback touchdown unders and a wind under in Buffalo. Five games are passes, and for each one we name what we're watching and why it isn't a play. Every game links to its full breakdown so you can check the work.
The card
Prices are what Kalshi showed at about 4:10 PM ET Saturday. Now is what the position costs this second: the ask for a YES, 100 minus the YES bid for a NO. Rest at is where we'd post the first order. Walk away is the most we'd pay on a resting order. Above it, the edge is too thin to be worth the risk.
| Kick (ET) | Game | The play | Now | Rest at | Walk away | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:30 | IND vs WAS (London) | Mariota 2+ pass TDs NO | 60¢ | 59¢ | 65¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | TEN @ BAL | Cam Ward 10+ rush yds NO | 49¢ | 48¢ | 52¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | NE @ BUF | James Cook 2+ rec YES | 50¢ | 49¢ | 54¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | NE @ BUF | Total 48.5 UNDER | see page | — | — | MODERATE · wind |
| 1:00 | NYJ @ CHI | Braelon Allen 15+ rec yds NO | 59¢ | 58¢ | 64¢ | PLAY |
| 1:00 | JAX @ CIN | Lawrence 15+ rush yds NO | 51¢ | 50¢ | 56¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | DAL @ HOU | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 1:00 | ARI @ NYG | — | — | — | — | PASS · QB-adjusted |
| 1:00 | LAR @ PHI | Barkley 70+ rush yds NO | 51¢ | 50¢ | 53¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 1:00 | GB @ TB | MarShawn Lloyd 25+ rush yds YES | 44¢ | 43¢ | 46¢ | PLAY |
| 4:05 | MIA @ MIN | Chris Bell 3+ rec NO | 51¢ | 50¢ | 56¢ | PLAY |
| 4:25 | KC @ LV | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 4:25 | LAC @ SEA | — | — | — | — | PASS |
| 4:25 | DEN @ SF | Bo Nix 2+ pass TDs NO | 55¢ | 54¢ | 59¢ | PLAY · HIGH |
| 8:20 | DET @ CAR | — | — | — | — | PASS |
How the card was built. A prop at PLAY status on our board comes first. PLAY means it cleared every publish gate: direction agreement, the confidence band, a real two-sided book, enough expected value left after the fee, and no unsettled status in the player's room. That last gate is why this card looks the way it does. The final injury report settled the open statuses on ten teams Friday, and the rows those teams were holding back came through. Nothing here is a WATCH row dressed up as a play.
Eight of the ten positions are unders. That's what cleared, not something we went looking for. It's still worth knowing, because when a card leans one way, the misses tend to arrive together. Size with that in mind.
How to get in
- Be the bid. Post a resting order on your side and let the market come to you. Buying a NO at 48¢ is the same order as offering the YES at 52. A resting (maker) fill pays no fee on most standard Kalshi markets. Crossing the spread (taking) costs the taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price), which is about 1.7¢ a contract near a coin flip.
- Scale in. Put half your planned size at Rest at. Put the rest 2¢ to 4¢ better, where it only fills if the market drifts your way.
- The walk-away is a hard stop. It's our number minus a 5-point minimum edge. If you have to cross the spread, take another 2¢ off for the fee.
- News before size. Inactives post about 90 minutes before kick. Each play below says whose status matters.
London, 9:30 AM
Colts vs. Commanders: Marcus Mariota under 2 touchdown passes
NO on 2+ pass TDs · 60¢ now (book 40/41 on the YES, about 2,700 contracts open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 59, half at 56.
- Walk away: above 65 resting, 63 taking.
- Timing: build it tonight. This is the earliest kick on the board, and London inactives post before most of the country is awake.
Washington goes to London without Jayden Daniels (elbow), running back Rachaad White and guard Samuel Cosmi, all ruled out. Terry McLaurin is questionable with a hamstring. Mariota starts on short notice behind a patched line, and the model projects him for about one touchdown pass. Kalshi has two or more at 40%. Indianapolis is without Keenan Allen, which doesn't change the Washington side of this. Full breakdown: Colts vs. Commanders Week 4 prediction · Marcus Mariota.
The 1 PM window
Titans at Ravens: Cam Ward under 10 rushing yards
NO on 10+ rush yds · 49¢ now (book 51/52 on the YES, about 720 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 48, half at 46.
- Walk away: above 52 resting. At 49 as a taker you're right at the line, so rest.
- Timing: starter tonight, the rest after Tennessee inactives (about 11:30 AM ET).
This is the cleanest rushing-yards number on the board. The model projects Ward for 8.7 rushing yards. Kalshi and a five-book consensus both price the over near 52%. Tennessee gets Tony Pollard back with no designation on the final report, and Tyjae Spears is questionable, so the Titans have a real back to give the ball to. Ward has averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt through three starts. He walks into a Baltimore defense that leans on disguised coverages, and the Ravens just got Lamar Jackson back to full practice. The risk: a quarterback who's getting chased on a lot of dropbacks picks up scramble yards whether he wants them or not. Full breakdown: Titans vs. Ravens Week 4 prediction · Cam Ward.
Patriots at Bills: James Cook 2+ receptions
YES on 2+ receptions · 50¢ now (book 49/50, about 3,000 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 49, half at 47.
- Walk away: above 54 resting, 52 taking.
- Timing: starter tonight, the rest after Buffalo inactives. Ray Davis is questionable (hamstring). If he's inactive, Cook's passing-down work grows, so lift your bid toward 52.
Kalshi and the books agree at a coin flip. Our number is 59%, off a projection of 1.9 catches. It's the deepest book among this week's PLAY rows. Full breakdown: Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 prediction · James Cook.
Also in this game: the under on 48.5. The model's one published game position this week is a wind-driven total. The forecast had about 14 mph of wind in Orchard Park, and that takes our line to 48.1. It's MODERATE because the wind is the signal. Keep an eye on the Orchard Park weather reports Sunday morning. A gusty 15-to-25 mph day is when wind really starts to shape a game. Price and tier are live on the game page.
Jets at Bears: Braelon Allen under 15 receiving yards
NO on 15+ rec yds · 59¢ now (book 41/42 on the YES, about 1,570 open) · PLAY.
- Ladder: half at 58, half at 55.
- Walk away: above 64 resting, 62 taking.
- Timing: build it tonight. The Jets' outs are already final.
The Jets ruled out Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor. Allen and Isaiah Davis split the backfield, and the model gives the passing-down work to Davis and projects Allen for 10 receiving yards. Kalshi has 15+ at 41%. This row was held at WATCH all week because the status feeds disagreed about Hall. The final report settled that. Chicago is without Caleb Williams, and Case Keenum is the line. Full breakdown: Jets vs. Bears Week 4 prediction · Braelon Allen.
Jaguars at Bengals: Trevor Lawrence under 15 rushing yards
NO on 15+ rush yds · 51¢ now (book 49/50 on the YES, about 1,540 open) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 50, half at 48.
- Walk away: above 56 resting, 54 taking.
- Timing: build it tonight. Neither quarterback is on the injury report, and nothing on Jacksonville's report touches the run game.
Seven books and Kalshi have Lawrence's 15-yard line as a coin flip. The model projects 11.2. Take the 15 rung, not the 10. The 10-yard row is flagged on our board because its side runs against the projection. Cincinnati is without safety Kyle Dugger. That's a coverage problem for the Bengals, and it's a reason Lawrence throws rather than runs. Full breakdown: Jaguars vs. Bengals Week 4 prediction · Trevor Lawrence.
Cowboys at Texans: Pass
C.J. Stroud's rushing line is the interesting number. Our read is the over, but an absence in Houston's position room is flagged on the row, so it stays on WATCH. Houston is without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. The game line is priced within a couple of points of our number. Full breakdown: Cowboys vs. Texans Week 4 prediction.
Cardinals at Giants: Pass (QB-adjusted)
Jameis Winston has the Giants job, the market moved for it days ago, and the board publishes no game position off a corrected rating. The Giants have no injury designations at all. Full breakdown: Cardinals vs. Giants Week 4 prediction.
Rams at Eagles: Saquon Barkley under 70 rushing yards
NO on 70+ rush yds · 51¢ now (book 49/51 on the YES, about 590 open, read at 5:10 PM ET) · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: everything at 50.
- Walk away: above 53 resting. The cushion is small, so don't take it at the ask.
- Timing: rest it tonight and re-check after Philadelphia inactives (about 11:30 AM ET).
This row joined the card Saturday evening. The final injury report settled the status conflict that had been holding Philadelphia's props at WATCH. The model projects Barkley for 67.8 rushing yards. Kalshi has 70+ at about 50%. It's a small projection gap and a HIGH-tier row, not a blowout, so size it like one. The risk: Philadelphia ruled out six players, including DeVonta Smith, Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert, plus linebacker Zack Baun, a lineman and a safety. With three pass-catchers out, the Eagles may hand Barkley more of the offense than his recent workload says. That's the case for the over, and it's why the walk-away is tight. Full breakdown: Rams vs. Eagles Week 4 prediction · Saquon Barkley.
The number everyone will ask about. On the other side, Puka Nacua is good to go, with no designation on the Rams' final report. That makes the board's widest receiving gap worth explaining. Kalshi has Nacua 75+ receiving yards at 39¢, while four books sit near 50%. Our projection, 63 yards, lands on the same side as Kalshi. When the model agrees with the cheap venue, the books are the outlier and there's no edge to take. If you were going to own the over anyway, Kalshi is the cheapest place to do it. That's a price fact, not a call.
Packers at Buccaneers: MarShawn Lloyd 25+ rushing yards
YES on 25+ rush yds · 44¢ now (book 43/44, about 1,170 open) · PLAY.
- Ladder: everything at 43.
- Walk away: 46. The gap is thin, so don't chase it.
- Timing: starter tonight, the rest after Green Bay inactives.
Tampa Bay starts a rookie, Jalon Daniels, with Baker Mayfield out (thumb), and Green Bay is the road favorite. That's the script where a team's backs see a lot of late carries. The model projects Lloyd for 30 rushing yards. Kalshi has 25+ at 43.5%, and the only exact book line is about 49%. If you like the over at all, Kalshi is the cheapest place to own it. Jayden Reed going on injured reserve is what held this row at WATCH. That's settled now. The second Green Bay row that cleared on the same fix is Jordan Love over 1.5 touchdown passes. Treat the two as one idea. Full breakdown: Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 4 prediction · MarShawn Lloyd.
The 4 PM window
Dolphins at Vikings: Chris Bell under 3 receptions
NO on 3+ receptions · 51¢ now (book 49/50 on the YES, about 160 open) · PLAY.
- Ladder: half at 50, half at 48.
- Walk away: above 56 resting.
- Timing: this is the thinnest book on the card. Rest it, don't size past what the book holds, and re-check after Miami inactives (about 2:35 PM ET).
Justin Jefferson is out for Minnesota and Caleb Douglas is out for Miami. Five books have Bell at exactly 50/50 for three catches. The model projects 2.4. The 2:35 PM re-check matters here: if another Miami receiver is a surprise inactive, stop adding. Full breakdown: Dolphins vs. Vikings Week 4 prediction · Chris Bell.
Chiefs at Raiders: Pass
The Kenneth Walker rushing under is the closest look, and it sits on WATCH. The model has him under his recent workload, and the volume-floor gate won't publish an under the model isn't projecting the carries for. Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell is questionable for personal reasons. Full breakdown: Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 4 prediction.
Chargers at Seahawks: Pass
Seattle's Jadarian Price is OUT (chest), but his rushing ladder is still listed on Kalshi. Emanuel Wilson is the back who gets those carries. Kalshi has Wilson 50+ at 56¢ against books near 50%, so the cheapest under is on Kalshi. Our model has no published row on it, so it's a price note, not a call. Full breakdown: Chargers vs. Seahawks Week 4 prediction.
Broncos at 49ers: Bo Nix under 2 touchdown passes
NO on 2+ pass TDs · about 55¢ now · PLAY, HIGH tier.
- Ladder: half at 54, half at 52.
- Walk away: above 59 resting.
- Timing: no rush. Rest it in the morning and check it again after the 1 PM games.
The model projects Nix for 1.25 touchdown passes. The risk is plain: San Francisco is without Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams, so Nix will have more time than usual. It still clears every gate at HIGH, but this is the one to size a notch smaller. Mike Evans is questionable for the 49ers. Full breakdown: Broncos vs. 49ers Week 4 prediction · Bo Nix.
Sunday night
Lions at Panthers: Pass
Carolina is without Xavier Legette and guard Damien Lewis, and Jalen Coker is questionable. Nothing on this game cleared the board. The prop rows are thin or priced away. Full breakdown: Lions vs. Panthers Week 4 prediction.
Before you take any of these
- Correlation. Cook's catches and the Buffalo under are two positions on one game script, so count them that way. The Lloyd over and Love's touchdowns are one idea. The three rushing unders are separate games and separate ideas.
- Inactives move props. Re-check every resting order after inactives post. A walk-away is only as good as the news it was set on.
- The fee is real. Run your own strike through the Kalshi fee calculator and size with the Kelly calculator.
Our probability and the edge on every prop above are on each game page's prop table for Pro members. The contract, the side and the price are free, here and on the full prop board. Every model line for the week is on the NFL Week 4 predictions hub, and Week 5 is already up. Want this board inside Claude or ChatGPT? Connect the PredictionMarketsPicks NFL tools.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ as market-implied probabilities and settle on the real outcome. Availability varies by state. Everything here is analysis with a stated position attached, recorded at a stated price on a stated date. Nothing here is advice. Trade responsibly.