Skip to content
NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

NFL Week 5 Best Investments: Favorites, Underdogs, Overs, Unders, and Props!

October 8, 2026 · 19:28 · Fade the Field

What’s in this video

Coach Jean Clemens hosts Fade the Field solo this week, breaking down NFL Week 5 positions priced on Kalshi. He covers a Thursday night touchdown-scorer combo for Buccaneers vs Giants, then picks his favorite favorite, underdog, over, under, and prime-time touchdown props for Sunday and Monday night.

Key points

Full transcript

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back for another edition of Fade the Field. I am Coach Jean Clemens rolling solo today. CJ um our my good friend Chris James has prior engagements that he has to take care of. Um you know, people to see um things to do, but I'm going to hold you down today. I'm going to hold you down as we always do. I'm going to do something different today. Um, I want to start with the Thursday night game because it's just too juicy to pass up. And I know it won't be a lot of time before you see this for you to be able to get this in. So, I want to tell you about it right now. Um, I have a five I have a five investment combo that you should try out over on Koshi if that is your prediction markets place of choice. But before you do that, make sure you go over to the sevenoracles.com and see everything we're doing over there, especially especially our combo edge tool because the combo edge tool will tell you if this is a good combination to play or not. Um I I swear by it. It is something that myself and and Benny over at the Seven Oracles have been working on at at Nauseium. Um we continue to tinker with it. continue to play with it to try to make it the best tool that you could possibly have for any time that you want to play a combo or a parlay, right? That you have a tool that tells you whether that is a worthwhile combo to play or whether you're just wasting your money. So, first off, CD Lamb for anytime touchdown is trading at 48 cents. Um Javon Williams um currently trading at 65 cents for an anytime touchdown. Yes, I think both of those guys have a great opportunity to score today cuz I think that Tampa Bay will struggle to score and not that they are a civ and they just give up everything, but I think of all of the Giants offensive weapons that could score today, CD's obvious choice. Javant Javvante an obvious choice. So, I've got both of them for anytime touchdown. CD at 48 cents, Javante Williams at 65 cents. Um, I also have um Ferguson for more than or three or more receptions that is trading at 66%. I also have Gavvonte Williams rushing for 60 or more rushing yards. That's only trading at 58%. And finally, I have um Jalon Daniels, the quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 40 or more rushing yards. That's trading at 57%. Again, it is something I think about. It's a five a little five pop combo that you can put on and and and try to get your investment going for the weekend. That is from me to you. Um, if you're wondering what something like that would return, um, you're going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 13 or 13.1x or 13.2x on your on your investment. So, not a bad investment. Throw $10 on it, throw $20 on it, throw a $100 on it, and have a really good weekend. Um, let's get into the proceedings for the week. Quarter one is our best favorite of the week. And I and again, it's just me, so I'm just going to roll through these. I don't want to keep you for a long time. I want to keep you for a good time, but I also want to have you make some good investments. The Chicago Bears right now are two and a half point favorites on the road. right on the road I believe against the Packers. The Packers can't stop the run. The Bears really know how to run. Yes, Kyle Manangi is dealing with injury, but they just paid the they just paid DeAndre Swift all that money. They're going to get right with him. He's going to rush all over. I think regardless of who starts at quarterback, doesn't really matter to me. The Packers have a lot to figure out. The Bears don't have a lot to figure out. They know who they are. If you tease this up to um minus 3 and a half, you can get 2.43x your money. That's where I like it. Lock that in. That's my best favorite of the week. I know you might be saying, "Man, that's your best favorite of the week." Yeah, I mean, it's some It's an interesting week, right? So, um definitely check that out. Best favorite of the week. Let's check out quarter two. And in quarter two is our best underdog of the week. I I think this one is interesting, right? The the people who, you know, invest. They're not ready to invest in the New York Giants. They're they're saying that what the New York Giants is doing is fool's gold. that they're three in one by miracles, right? And how do I know that? It's because they are a three and a half point dog to the Washington Commanders who may be welcoming back Jayen Daniels, right? He could be back, but he's going to be back with a brace on because his elbow popped out of place and all that other stuff. non-throwing elbow. But if you're telling me that that doesn't affect you and how are you going to fall and how are you going to get hit and how are you going to try to accept getting hit? You're not going to be able to use that left side. To me, that is a that is a really really bad thing to have to worry about, right? That's a really really bad thing to have to worry about. I think that that could be a big difference in this game. We know that Terry McLaren hasn't practiced. Um, he's probably going to end up being a game time decision. Um, he won't be a 100% whether he plays or not. Um, the the knock on the Giants is that they don't have the requisite pass rush that you're looking for. But as someone who covers the Giants, I can tell you that it's it's kind of better than you think. They just don't have sacks to show for it, right? They don't have sacks to show for it. And this defense is playing well. They may not they may not have sacked the quarterback a lot, but they've taken the ball away a lot. And they've taken the ball away versus every single team they've played. So even in the loss to the Rams, they had multiple turnovers in that game. I expect that to continue this game. I expect them to be able to hang tough with the Washington Nash Washington Commanders, excuse me. If not win it all together if you like it with with with taking the three and a half points. That is trading at 49 cents. That's taking the three and a half points. But if you like them to win outright, and I do, right? I like both of them. I'm I'm going to invest in both. I'm going invest in them to win outright. That is 38%. For them to win outright, ladies and gentlemen. You know what that means? That's multiple extra money. Um and and that's what we're trying to go for. That's why this is my favorite underdog to cover of the week. Let's go to the next one. And in quarter three, excuse me, in quarter three, our that says quarter four, excuse me, quarter three, our best over total. Um, this one to me is a no-brainer. Who's the Lions playing? They're playing the Cardinals. The Cardinals can throw the ball all over the place. It should be a bounceback game for Jacobe Brassette um after throwing three interceptions in the Giants game. See what I mean? Um I expect him to play much better. I expect those receiving weapons to play it much better. I expect those rushing people to play much better. Um yeah, but I don't know if they're going to be able to stop Detroit from scoring. And therein lies the problem, right? That's where things get crazy. over 54 and a half points. So, it's a big it's a big it's a big total, right? Um that is that is that is trading at 50 cents. If you like it to get to 60, then you're talking about um in a 30%, but I'm just going to take it over to 54 and a half at 50%. But if you see the the scoring coming early and often, maybe go back in and try to see if you can get it at a higher number before that number really starts to fluctuate and you can't get any value out of that. I just don't see the Detroit offense being just completely shut down by anybody. That's where I start at because it's not going to be shut down by anybody. That means the team they play is going to have to keep scoring. Well, guess what? I don't see anyone not being able to score on the Detroit offense. Tada. Points on points on points. 14 28, right? 14 28 42 36. There is your total. Like I mean 56, excuse me. 4256. That's how it works. I think there'll be two touchdowns um a quarter at minimum when you average it out. I think you could have a 21 point maybe even a 28 point quarter in this game. That would not be surprising to me. That really takes it out of here. Um, but at 50 cents a share, I like to be able to get, you know, to be able to double up on my money and and that's what I can do with this investment on the best over total for the week. Let's go to the next one. And in quarter four, it is our best under total. And this one, I'm gonna go I'mma zig. When most people think I might zag, I could have easily taken the Minnesota game in this. And a lot of you might be saying, "Yeah, but you said New Orleans is one of those teams that, you know, um they score on everyone um or everyone scores on them." Yeah, but I don't know if they're going to be able to score like that versus Minnesota. I or they might be able to score like that. I don't like that variance, so I stay away. What I do like the Cincinnati Bengals and the Miami Dolphins here. Here's what it comes down for me, right? The Bengals are b are banged up. They're not going to be at full strength. They're going to lean into the rushing attack. That means the clock's going to run, right? They're going to lean in the dump of the ball off to the running back and to probably Mike just Mike Mike Gaseki who always gets teed up anytime a receiver gets injured. That's going to run the clock. Miami is a better defense than people give it credit for. They have not, and I repeat, they have not given up 28 points but one time this year. There's only one team this year that has um beat them for more than 28 points, right? And so like just just going off of that, just going from what they've been able to do as a defense this year versus opponents, right? Um, San Francisco in in week two is the only team to be able to put up more than 28 points. They gave up 27 to Vegas, they scored 13. That's under 42 and a half, which is what the what the number is. Um, the 35-13 just um in the San Francisco game, right? That's 48. But again, San Francisco is the only team to put up 20 put up over 28 points. Kansas City, it was 24-10. Minnesota, it was 15-10. The Dolphins can't score enough, but their defense is good enough to keep you from just running the numbers up. And because of that, I like this game to go under 42 and a half. The the Bengals defense is better than it's been, right? Their defense is better than it's been. Gave up only six points to Houston. Gave up only 17 points, I'm sorry, excuse me, 22 points to Jacksonville. Um, Pittsburgh was a 30-point anomaly. Um, Tampa Bay, they gave up 27 points to. Those are in weirdly shaped games. I just don't see how the Dolphins are able to put up those types of points. I'll take my chances. I'll go with the under on this one. To me, this is the best total, the best under total of the week at 42 and a half. That is trading at 49. So, you know, a little bit more than doubling your money. I like that as an investment. Let's check out overtime. And in overtime, we go with the best prop plays. I'm going to tell you what I did. Um, again, because I was I was thinking about this a little bit different. Um, I I was thinking about this a little bit different than what I would normally think about here with um our props. I think that the two prime time games on Sunday night and on Monday night have what I consider to be almost counted every week staples for touchdowns. The Baltimore Ravens versus the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. King Henry to score anytime touchdown is trading at 57 cents. Bean Robinson to score anytime touchdown is trading at 66 cents. I love those two. And then on Monday night, Josh Allen to score anytime touchdown is trading at 51 cents. And then um Kyron Williams to score an anytime touchdown is trading at 60 cents. I like Kyron Williams as a running back because he could score as a receiver or as a runner. The same thing with Bejon. King Henry, we know it's going to happen. They're going to just bludgeoning you with King Henry anytime they get an opportunity to. If you're feeling froggy, you take all four. You jumble them. You combo them up together and you rock them. If you're feeling less froggy, but you're feeling adventurous, just take Bean and Henry and put those two together. Then take Allan and Williams and combo those two together the next day. Take the Bejon and Henry combo when it hits. Roll your money over and invest it on the Allen and Kairen Williams to hit. And now you've essentially done the same thing. If you're apprehensive, then take them all as individual um investments. Again, Bejian at 66%, Henry at 57%, Allen at 51% on Monday night, and Ky Williams at 60% on Monday night. To me, those are my favorite touchdown plays because those guys just seem like they're in the end zone every single week. Um, for Bejan and Henry and Josh Allen, they've been in the end zone every single week. Um, for Kron Williams, same thing. he's been out there. So, like I like those as plays. I think you should like those as investments as well. That's all the time we have. Make sure that you're going over to the going over to the sevenoracles.com to check out everything we have over there, including including our combo edge builder. You're going to go over there, you're going to put in all of your stuff, even like props, right? If you go to the if you go to the website on the computer, you can type the player's name in. It's going to bring up every prop that the player has once they've all populated for the week. It is only Thursday, right? Um, if you go and type a team in, it's going to bring up every prop, I mean, every play that we have for that team. You can build your combo that way. Put it in. It's going to tell you whether or not it is a thumbs up or a thumbs down on that combo. Meaning, does this have a a good chance of of of cashing? Is it worth it if it does cash? Sometimes the combo builder will agree that, hey, this this happens more often than not, but this is what the value should be and this is the value you're getting in at. So, for this value, it's not worth it. That's why it's important to try to get your plays in as soon as possible so that you get the maximum value that you can get with these with these combos. And so, I'm looking forward to you all having fun with that. Go over there, use the promo code NFL26 to get 26% off your first month subscription over at the Seven Oracles. As my guy Dne says, join the prediction Illuminati. Until next time, I'm Coach Jean Clemens aka Arumula. You can find me everywhere on Xanclemens. Make sure you subscribe on YouTube. Make sure you go to the sevenoracles.com and make sure you keep on fading the field.

More from Fade the Field

All Fade the Field videos →

More on NFL

All NFL videos →

Get The 7 Oracles daily predictions newsletter — free

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.