October 2026 FOMC Meeting — Prediction Market Odds
Live Kalshi prediction market probabilities for cut, hold, or hike at the Oct 27–28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print.
Quick Answer
prediction markets put a hold at the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting at 78% — the base case on Kalshi's KXFED ladder. The full split is 21% hike, 78% hold, 1% cut. The Bayesian model reprices this after every CPI, NFP, and PCE release, so the number moves with the data.
See the full KXFED ladder →Oct 27–28, 2026
25 days out · Market-implied probabilities from Kalshi
Last updated Oct 3, 1:00 PM UTC
Hike Watch
Oct 27–28, 2026 · 26 days outHike odds for Oct first closed above 50% on Aug 18, and sit at 21% today.
Cross-Market Divergence
Oct 27–28, 2026 · 25 days outThe same meeting, priced on 3 venues at once. On the outcome the market considers most likely, they disagree by 2.5pp.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Futures | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 0.5% | 0.3% | — | 0.3pp |
| 25bp cut | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5pp |
| Hold | 81.5% | 82.5% | 80.0% | 2.5pp |
| 25bp hike | 18.5% | 17.5% | 20.0% | 2.5pp |
| 50bp+ hike | 1.0% | 0.4% | — | 0.6pp |
Widest gap: 2.5pp on hold, between Futures and Polymarket.
Which venue has been right
- Sep 15–16, 2026 — actual: 25bp hike · Kalshi 86.5% · Polymarket 88.5% · Futures 94.3% · closest: Futures
Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.
CME fed funds futures implied is derived from the CME fed funds futures curve using the published FedWatch methodology, anchored on the daily effective fed funds rate. It yields a single expected rate, so it is mapped onto a cut / hold / hike triple — it cannot express a 50bp outcome at all, and those cells read “—” rather than 0%.
Updated Oct 3, 9:00 AM ET · refreshes every 30 minutes.
Why the venues disagree, and which has been right across meetings: cross-market divergence.
Three Venues, Day by Day
Oct 27–28, 2026 · HoldDaily close of the hold outcome on each venue, Aug 30 to Oct 3. The line is the price; the gap between lines is the divergence.
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- CME fed funds futures implied
| Day | Kalshi | Polymarket | Futures | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | 81.5% | 82.5% | 80.0% | 2.5pp |
| Oct 2 | 81.5% | 82.5% | 80.0% | 2.5pp |
| Oct 1 | 73.0% | 74.5% | 74.0% | 1.5pp |
| Sep 30 | 65.0% | — | 64.0% | 1.0pp |
| Sep 29 | 53.0% | — | 54.0% | 1.0pp |
| Sep 28 | 29.0% | — | 32.0% | 3.0pp |
| Sep 27 | 35.0% | — | 34.0% | 1.0pp |
| Sep 26 | 35.5% | — | 38.0% | 2.5pp |
| Sep 25 | 36.0% | — | 38.0% | 2.0pp |
| Sep 24 | 32.5% | — | 28.0% | 4.5pp |
| Sep 23 | 35.0% | — | 32.0% | 3.0pp |
| Sep 22 | 48.0% | 45.5% | 44.0% | 4.0pp |
| Sep 21 | 46.5% | 46.5% | 42.0% | 4.5pp |
| Sep 20 | 40.0% | 43.5% | 44.0% | 4.0pp |
| Sep 19 | — | 43.5% | — | — |
| Sep 18 | — | 43.5% | — | — |
| Sep 17 | — | 49.5% | — | — |
| Sep 16 | — | 53.5% | 48.3% | 5.2pp |
| Sep 15 | — | 60.5% | 54.3% | 6.2pp |
| Sep 14 | — | 61.5% | 54.3% | 7.2pp |
Series: daily close of the hold outcome for the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting on Kalshi, Polymarket, CME fed funds futures implied. Kalshi is the KXFED ladder; Polymarket is the per-meeting ladder on the international book; the futures figure is derived from the CME fed funds futures curve by the published FedWatch method and is a probability, not a contract price. Three-venue capture began Aug 30; the Kalshi series runs from Aug 30. Nothing before either date is backfilled — a pre-decision price cannot be reconstructed after the fact. Drawn for the next meeting only: it is the one meeting where Kalshi’s cumulative rate-level contract and the per-meeting venues answer the same question, so the gap is a real disagreement rather than a difference in what is being asked.
The case for each side
Oct 27–28, 2026- •Core CPI at or below 0.2% MoM — the last move is working
- •Payrolls weak or unemployment rising
- •Energy prices roll over and headline inflation cools
- •Chair signals patience at the press conference
- •Core CPI prints 0.3% MoM or hotter again — inflation not cooling
- •Energy prices keep feeding headline inflation
- •Payrolls solid (NFP 150K+) with unemployment flat
- •Chair and dots keep signalling more tightening is needed
The leading outcome is listed first. Odds update as economic data prints.
Key Dates
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What Will the Fed Do at the October 2026 FOMC Meeting?
The Oct 27–28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is one of 8 scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 where the Fed sets the federal funds rate target range. Prediction markets on Kalshi allow traders to take a position on the outcome — cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp, or hike 50bp — with each contract price reflecting the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Unlike opinion polls or analyst forecasts, prediction market prices are backed by real money. When a contract trades at 65¢, market participants are collectively saying there is a 65% probability of that rate decision. As new economic data arrives — CPI, NFP, PCE, GDP — the price moves, and every day's close is kept in the archive so you can see what each print did.
How to Trade the October 2026 FOMC Meeting
The best edge comes from correctly anticipating how upcoming indicator releases will shift the odds. Before a CPI print, ask: if inflation comes in hotter than consensus, how much should cut probability fall? Each indicator's sensitivity page gives the typical move per surprise. If Kalshi doesn't move as much as that history says it should — or Polymarket and futures disagree — that gap is the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are prediction markets pricing for the October 2026 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi prediction markets price the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting at 21% hike, 78% hold, and 1% cut as of the latest snapshot. Probabilities update every 5 minutes and are shown per strike on this page.
Will the Fed cut rates in October 2026?
As of the latest snapshot, Kalshi prediction markets price a hold at the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting at 78% — currently the base case. The full ladder reads 21% hike, 78% hold, 1% cut. That is a live, money-backed read, not a forecast, and the Bayesian model on this page updates it automatically after every major economic data release (CPI, NFP, PCE).
How do you trade the October 2026 FOMC decision on Kalshi?
Kalshi's KXFED market lists a threshold contract for each rate outcome at the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting. Buy the YES contract on the outcome you expect (cut, hold, or hike); each contract pays $1 if that outcome settles. The edge comes from anticipating how upcoming CPI, NFP, and PCE releases will move the odds before the market fully reprices.