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Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

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15-MINUTE

Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

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Every 2026 race priced on Kalshi and Polymarket

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Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

Same contract. Different price. Here’s where it’s cheapest after fees.

Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig often list the same contract at slightly different prices, and each charges its own fee. Below is what one contract costs to buy on each, fee included, with the cheapest marked. Free, no sign-in.

Savings found: 167 cheaper prices since 2026-10-02 — $269 saved on 100-contract orders, about 1.6¢ a contract.

Sports game lines

as of Oct 22, 10:00 AM ET · ask + taker fee, per contract
Game · contractKalshiPolymarket USNovigCheapest
Atlanta Hawks · NBA · Atlanta vs Charlotte59.7¢59.7¢57.0¢Novig · $2.69/100 →
Boston Bruins · NHL · Nashville vs Boston61.7¢—59.0¢Novig · $2.68/100 →
Chicago Bulls · NBA · Chicago vs Milwaukee51.8¢51.7¢49.5¢Novig · $2.24/100 →
New York Knicks · NBA · New York vs Boston47.7¢—45.5¢Novig · $2.24/100 →
New York Islanders · NHL · Los Angeles vs New York I54.7¢54.7¢52.5¢Novig · $2.23/100 →
Cleveland Cavaliers · NBA · Cleveland vs Philadelphia43.7¢43.7¢41.5¢Novig · $2.19/100 →
Utah Jazz · NBA · Los Angeles L vs Utah40.7¢42.7¢—Kalshi · $2.01/100 →
Miami Heat · NBA · Miami vs Charlotte65.6¢63.6¢—Polymarket US · $1.97/100 →
Colorado Avalanche · NHL · Tampa Bay vs Colorado55.7¢57.7¢—Kalshi · $1.97/100 →
Cleveland Cavaliers · NBA · Brooklyn vs Cleveland83.0¢81.1¢—Polymarket US · $1.92/100 →
Chicago Bears · NFL · New England vs Chicago61.7¢61.4¢59.5¢Novig · $1.92/100 →
Toronto Maple Leafs · NHL · New York R vs Toronto50.7¢50.7¢49.0¢Novig · $1.74/100 →
Pittsburgh Penguins · NHL · Florida vs Pittsburgh53.7¢53.7¢52.0¢Novig · $1.73/100 →
Buffalo Bills · NFL · Baltimore vs Buffalo63.6¢65.4¢—Kalshi · $1.71/100 →
New Orleans Saints · NFL · Pittsburgh vs New Orleans39.6¢39.1¢37.5¢Novig · $1.63/100 →

Every game, every venue: the cross-venue scanner · Kalshi vs Novig.

2026 midterms: Kalshi vs Polymarket US

as of Oct 22, 9:52 AM ET · ask + taker fee, per contract
Race · contractKalshiPolymarket USCheaper
Texas Senate · James Talarico69.5¢69.5¢Same price
Maine Senate · Troy Jackson67.6¢68.5¢Kalshi · $0.97/100
Michigan Senate · Abdul El-Sayed71.5¢71.5¢Same price
Ohio Senate · Sherrod Brown72.4¢73.4¢Kalshi · $0.96/100
Iowa Senate · Ashley Hinson60.7¢60.7¢Same price
New York Governor · Kathy Hochul95.3¢95.3¢Same price
Kansas Senate · Roger Marshall63.6¢63.6¢Same price
South Carolina Senate · Darline Graham84.9¢84.0¢Polymarket US · $0.96/100
Florida Governor · Byron Donalds80.2¢81.1¢Kalshi · $0.95/100
Ohio Governor · Amy Acton81.1¢81.1¢Same price

Polymarket US is the venue US traders use. Ranked by Kalshi volume; badged by price only. Where it’s cheapest today →

Fed decision: Oct 27–28, 2026

as of Oct 22, 10:00 AM ET · implied probability
OutcomeKalshiPolymarket (international, reference)
50bp+ cut1%0%
25bp cut1%0%
Hold91%92%
25bp hike9%8%
50bp+ hike1%0%

Next meeting only, both venues asking the same per-meeting question. No Polymarket US Fed price is captured yet, so no venue is marked cheapest here. Fed rate tracker →

The fees behind the numbers

KalshiTaker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢ · read 2026-09-23
Polymarket (international book)No trading fee on most markets; order-book spread (~2%)
Polymarket USTaker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100 · read 2026-10-22
NovigNo fee pregame; live fills and NFL/NCAAF/MLB/NBA/WNBA/NHL futures pay a taker fee of c × price × (1 − price) · read 2026-10-22

Run your own numbers: Kalshi fee calculator · Novig fee calculator · Kalshi vs Polymarket.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where is a prediction market contract cheapest right now?

It changes game by game. This page prices the same contract on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig and marks the cheapest after fees. Prices on two venues are often within a cent of each other; where they differ, the gap is usually one to three cents per contract.

What does "after fees" mean here?

It is what you pay to buy one contract: the venue's ask plus its taker fee at that price. Kalshi and Polymarket US both charge a per-contract taker fee that is largest at 50 cents; Novig charges no fee on pregame game lines. The fee table on this page reads from the same source as our fee calculators.

Do you rank venues by which one pays you?

No. The table is ordered by price only. Some venues pay us a referral fee and some do not, and none of that reaches the ranking. Kalshi is always listed first for consistency; the cheapest venue is the one with the badge.

Why is Polymarket US listed instead of Polymarket?

Polymarket runs two exchanges with separate order books. Polymarket US is the venue US traders use, so that is the price we compare. The international book can show a different price and is never marked cheapest here.

Is this the same as arbitrage?

No. Arbitrage means locking in a profit by buying both sides on different venues, which almost never clears fees. This page answers a simpler question: if you want this position, where does it cost the least today?

How often do the prices update?

Sports prices refresh about every 15 minutes, midterm race prices hourly, and each table shows its own as-of time. A venue with no two-sided book, or a book wider than 15 cents, shows no price rather than a stale one.