Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets · bye week 13

This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines →Week 5 results →

Week 6 gamesSeahawks at Broncos Texans at Jaguars Bears at Falcons Ravens at Browns Titans at Colts Jets at Patriots Saints at Giants Panthers at Eagles Steelers at Buccaneers Cardinals at Rams Chargers at Chiefs Bills at Raiders Cowboys at Packers Commanders at 49ers

FLAG

Week 6 vs NE — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.

Our Week 6 projection for Garrett Wilson, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Where the market has Garrett Wilson this week

As of Oct 16, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Garrett Wilson at 47.5¢ for 7+ rec against NE in Week 6; the 6-book sportsbook consensus implies 46.5%, a 1.0¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (46.5¢) and the best under at DK (54.3¢).
As of Oct 16, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Garrett Wilson at 34.0¢ for 8+ rec against NE in Week 6, with the best over at Novig (36¢) and the best under at Kalshi (68.6¢).
As of Oct 16, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Garrett Wilson at 53.5¢ for 70+ rec yds against NE in Week 6; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 54.1%, a 0.6¢ gap, with the best over at Kalshi (55.7¢) and the best under at Novig (46.9¢).
As of Oct 16, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Garrett Wilson at 31.5¢ for anytime TD against NE in Week 6, with the best over at Novig (31.9¢) and the best under at Kalshi (70.5¢).

A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.

Week 6 — how often he gets there

Every result Garrett Wilson could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.

Rec Yds

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 18·median 55·90th 153

Receptions

Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.

10th 2·median 5·90th 11

The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.

The week's sharpest prop, across every player

One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.

The Ladder — Garrett Wilson

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

Garrett WilsonReceptionsMARKET READView 7+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 7+ rec at 48¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

8+
rec
YES 35¢ · pays 2.9x NO 67¢
—
—
7+
rec
YES 48¢ · pays 2.1x NO 53¢
47¢
—
Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 6–7
6+
rec
YES 63¢ · pays 1.6x NO 41¢
—
—

Market · 7+ rec

YES 48¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 7+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 48¢, the books imply 47¢ — 1.0 points above the book read.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Garrett Wilson Kalshi prop ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every strike vs the sportsbook consensus — Garrett Wilson's headline Kalshi ladder this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Embed this player’s prop ladder

A live card locked to Garrett Wilson — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

Every NFL prediction-market widget.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Garrett Wilson Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/garrett-wilson?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Garrett Wilson Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/garrett-wilson?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Prop market — every Kalshi strike

Full market board →

Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Garrett Wilson with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Contract	Kalshi	Consensus	Gap	Best price	Trade
7+ recNYJ v NE	47.5¢	46.5%6bk	+1.0¢	over · Novig 46.5¢under · DK 54.3¢	Kalshi →
80+ rec ydsNYJ v NE	42.5¢	39.8%exch	+2.7¢	over · Novig 41.5¢under · Kalshi 60.7¢	Kalshi →
70+ rec ydsNYJ v NE	53.5¢	54.1%exch	-0.6¢	over · Kalshi 55.7¢under · Novig 46.9¢	Kalshi →
anytime TDNYJ v NE	31.5¢	—	one-sided	over · Novig 31.9¢under · Kalshi 70.5¢	Kalshi →
40+ rec ydsNYJ v NE	80.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 82.1¢under · Kalshi 21.1¢	Kalshi →
50+ rec ydsNYJ v NE	72.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Novig 74.5¢under · Kalshi 31.5¢	Kalshi →
60+ rec ydsNYJ v NE	62.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 65.6¢under · Kalshi 40.7¢	Kalshi →
90+ rec ydsNYJ v NE	34.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Novig 36.5¢under · Novig 64¢	Kalshi →
6+ recNYJ v NE	61.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Kalshi 64.6¢under · Kalshi 42.7¢	Kalshi →
8+ recNYJ v NE	34.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	over · Novig 36¢under · Kalshi 68.6¢	Kalshi →

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 16, 11:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 16, 11:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value

Projected points

198

11.6 per game

Consensus ADP

round 6

WR rank

WR21

model has him WR19

2026 range

10th pct 92·median 179·90th pct 292

Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.

The market drafts him 5 spots later than our board does at WR. That gap is why he carries a value tag.

Jets 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

at TEN

Week 2

vs GB

Week 3

at DET

Week 4

at CHI

Week 5

vs CLE

Week 6

at NE

Week 7

vs MIA

Week 8

vs LV

Week 9

at KC

Week 10

vs BUF

Week 11

at LAC

Week 12

at MIA

Week 14

vs DEN

Week 15

at ARI

Week 16

vs NE

Week 17

vs MIN

Week 18

at BUF

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about Garrett Wilson

What are Garrett Wilson's Kalshi props for Week 6?

As of Oct 16, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 10 strikes on Garrett Wilson against NE: 7+ rec at 47.5¢, 8+ rec at 34.0¢, 70+ rec yds at 53.5¢, anytime TD at 31.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.

Where is the best price on Garrett Wilson 7+ rec?

As of Oct 16, 11:10 PM ET, the cheapest over is Novig at 46.5¢ (next best 49.3¢), and the cheapest under is DK at 54.3¢ (next best 54.7¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.

What is Garrett Wilson's 2026 projection?

Garrett Wilson projects 198 half-PPR points (11.6 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 70 (round 6). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

More NFL Markets

NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale

Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.