NFL Trading Tips for Kalshi | Prediction Market Academy by The 7 Oracles

But hey, let's talk let's talk a little more trade school here while we're here. Right. I I agree with you. I love this Nico Collins thing, right? Okay. Now, mostly when a guy when a lot of people are sports betting, you know, they'll be like, "Oh, I'm going to take the over on Nico. I'm going to take the under. I'm going to do this or that." Right? So, if we like the over here, you don't have to make one bet. You don't have to do it at one price. So, here's an example. The Nico Collins at um 80 yards is 45. 70 is probably a little over 50, right? That's so the mid we would assume% 55% 60 is at 64 70's at 55 80 is at like 45. So here's what I would say like you know again if you think he's going to go over then you don't want to take 55 you're going to get a 45 payout on that meaning you know you for every 55 you bet it settles at a dollar. So you're you know you're getting that payout. It's like an 80% payout. You go up to that 80 yard one you can get 45. So let's say you want to put a $100 on Nico Collins over yards today right? You don't have to do it all at 70. You don't have to do it all at 80. You don't have to do it all at 90. And even on top of that, you don't have to do it all at what what is this 80 at right now? 45. Maybe you put in give me 25 shares at 45. And then you click the, you know, submit or sign in or whatever it says there when you're signed in. And then maybe you do another 25, but you drop it down to 40 cents. So now if you get filled at 45 and you get filled at 40, your average price is 42 instead of, you know, something below. Now sometimes maybe it won't drop to 40. So maybe you'll get filled at 45 and you won't get that fill at 40. Okay, but you were going to put it in at 45 anyway. You know what I mean? And then you could also do the same thing. If you like the ladder, okay, well then go up to 90. You want to have a little bit of it right away because here's the thing with these, right? If they go out on the first drive and Nico Collins doesn't get a catch, well that 45 probably drops down to 42 or 43 or 4. So maybe you catch that 40 and then on the second drive he has a 60 yard touchdown catch and you're like he's going to get his 100 easy here. So you could do that. The other thing I want to do over here, Alex, um let me see if you have it on this one. See where it says shares up there? Go up and change that to I think there's one that says limit. Go up to limit. Go down to see where it says expiration good till cancelled. Go there and click on the custom one. Oh, nice. So, I [laughter] explain this. I want Yeah. I want to again like I want people to understand how to do this because you're going to make these mistakes. And the reason I know this to talk about it is because I made this mistake. So, I'm trying to help you guys not do things that lost me money. So, again, when you're doing these football games, right, here's one that's going to screw you over. If you're betting first touchdowns, anybody out there who's betting first touchdowns, um, bet white tight end for first touchdown. Well, I mean, again, yes, obviously bet the guy who scores and you win money, you don't Yeah, you don't have to worry about that's the easy part. But if you still have bets out there, like if you do the good till canceled on a on a first bet for somebody and you try to get it a little cheaper. So maybe the market was at 32 and you put your bid in at 29 trying to get it cheaper. You have to remember once somebody else scores that first touchdown, if you still had those bids open, people are selling that stuff and this is a market. So sometimes you're going to get screwed and somebody else is going to score and you're going to wind up losing it. That doesn't happen like you won't get a fill on a first touchdown on DraftKings if somebody already scored it. It could happen over here on KI with the timing. So yeah, it's a very small window. Yoyo will still trade it. The I'm telling you well again you lost, right? Like let's say let's say I have Nico Collins, right? Let's say I bought Nico Collins to score first touchdown and anybody other than Nico Collins scores the first touchdown. If I can sell that for two, three, four cents before it gets to one, I'm selling it. So if somebody had a if somebody left an open thing out there, you're going to get screwed. Wait, does that even work even first touchdown, but anytime touchdown, right? And then all of a sudden this game has three and a half minutes left and you know the team's just running out the clock. Well, look, injuries too. Like everybody's like, "Oh, I want my injury protection from the sports books." There's no injury protection over here on Koshi, but there are people who didn't realize that they had a bid still out there on a guy who just broke his leg because he wasn't watching that game or something like that. There is money, you know, and you could say, "Oh, well that's not, you know, that's unethical." Okay, well, it's unethical. I don't give a [ __ ] People are doing it. Either somebody's going to do it to you or you're going to do it to them. So, do you want to be the taker? Do you want to, you know what I mean? you know, you're either, you know, sometimes you're the bear and something whatever that whole stupid old saying is like, you know, if you want to be the one who gets screwed, fine. Then don't listen to me. If you know, you want to at least understand how the game is played, then you can know to keep yourself out of bad situations. And that's what I want to try to help people do.