Will KacmarekQuestionable · Week 1
TE · Miami Dolphins · bye week 6
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Week 5 vs CIN — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 5 projection for Will Kacmarek, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Will Kacmarek this week
- As of Oct 10, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Will Kacmarek at 6.5¢ for anytime TD against CIN in Week 5; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 8.3%, a 1.8¢ gap, with the best over at BetRivers (7.1¢) and the best under at Novig (93.5¢).
- As of Oct 10, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Will Kacmarek at 28.5¢ for 15+ rec yds against CIN in Week 5.
- As of Oct 10, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Will Kacmarek at 31.5¢ for 2+ rec against CIN in Week 5; the 4-book sportsbook consensus implies 34.1%, a 2.6¢ gap, with the best over at Kalshi (33.5¢) and the best under at DK (69.1¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 1 — how often he gets there
Every result Will Kacmarek could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 7·90th 36
Receptions
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 1·90th 3
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 1.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
The Ladder — Will Kacmarek
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 32¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec34¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 69¢, the books imply 66¢ — 2.6 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ recMIA v CIN | 31.5¢ | 34.1%4bk | -2.6¢ | over · Kalshi 33.5¢under · DK 69.1¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDMIA v CIN | 6.5¢ | 8.3%exch | -1.8¢ | over · BetRivers 7.1¢under · Novig 93.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rec ydsMIA v CIN | 28.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 10, 11:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 10, 10:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
60
3.5 per game
Consensus ADP
405
round 34
TE rank
TE55
model has him TE53
2026 range
10th pct 34·median 58·90th pct 95
Measured, not simulated. Our TE projections have landed inside this band 75% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
The market drafts him 10 spots earlier than our board does at TE — we are lower on him than consensus.
Dolphins 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Will Kacmarek
What are Will Kacmarek's Kalshi props for Week 5?
As of Oct 10, 11:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 3 strikes on Will Kacmarek against CIN: anytime TD at 6.5¢, 15+ rec yds at 28.5¢, 2+ rec at 31.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Will Kacmarek anytime TD?
As of Oct 10, 11:10 PM ET, the cheapest over is BetRivers at 7.1¢ (next best 7.5¢), and the cheapest under is Novig at 93.5¢ (next best 94.4¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Will Kacmarek's 2026 projection?
Will Kacmarek projects 60 half-PPR points (3.5 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 405 (round 34). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 5 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 6 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 4 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-10; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.