Marcus Mariota
This week on the boardNFL Week 4 predictions →NFL Week 5 predictions — early lines →Week 3 results →
Week 4 vs IND — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 4 projection for Marcus Mariota, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Marcus Mariota this week
- As of Oct 3, 6:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Marcus Mariota at 70.0¢ for 175+ pass yds against IND in Week 4, with the best over at Kalshi (72.4¢) and the best under at Kalshi (32.5¢).
- As of Oct 3, 6:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Marcus Mariota at 2.5¢ for 2+ TDs against IND in Week 4.
- As of Oct 3, 6:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Marcus Mariota at 51.5¢ for 25+ rush yds against IND in Week 4, with the best over at Kalshi (53.8¢) and the best under at Kalshi (50.8¢).
- As of Oct 3, 6:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Marcus Mariota at 18.5¢ for anytime TD against IND in Week 4; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 19.3%, a 0.8¢ gap, with the best over at Fanatics (18.9¢) and the best under at Kalshi (83¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 4 — how often he gets there
Every result Marcus Mariota could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 7·90th 47
Flagged WATCH — our input on this one is provenance-limited or contradicted by news, and it is graded separately.
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 4.
Oracle prop calls
Full prop board →Market is the Kalshi price of the side we are calling; the model figure is our probability of that same outcome; divergence is the gap between them in percentage points. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
The Ladder — Marcus Mariota
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Kalshi prices 31+ pass att at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 36+pass att——
- 31+pass att——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 30–31
- 26+pass att——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 20+ completions at 43¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 20+completions——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 18–19
- 15+completions——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 1+ INTs at 48¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 2+INTs——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 0–1
- 1+INTs——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 6+ rush att at 43¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 6+rush att——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 4–5
- 3+rush att——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 41.5¢ | 45.7%2bk | -4.2¢ | over · Kalshi 43.7¢under · ESPN Bet 58.3¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDWAS v IND | 18.5¢ | 19.3%exch | -0.8¢ | over · Fanatics 18.9¢under · Kalshi 83¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ TDsWAS v IND | 2.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 26+ pass attWAS v IND | 75.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 31+ pass attWAS v IND | 48.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 36+ pass attWAS v IND | 26.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 15+ completionsWAS v IND | 86.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 20+ completionsWAS v IND | 42.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 1+ INTsWAS v IND | 47.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 2+ INTsWAS v IND | 16.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 1+ pass TDsWAS v IND | 75.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 2+ pass TDsWAS v IND | 38.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 3+ pass TDsWAS v IND | 14.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 4+ pass TDsWAS v IND | 4.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 150+ pass ydsWAS v IND | 81.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 83¢under · Kalshi 20.1¢ | Kalshi → |
| 175+ pass ydsWAS v IND | 70.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 72.4¢under · Kalshi 32.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 200+ pass ydsWAS v IND | 54.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 56.5¢under · Kalshi 47.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 225+ pass ydsWAS v IND | 38.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 40.7¢under · Kalshi 63.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 250+ pass ydsWAS v IND | 25.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 27.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 275+ pass ydsWAS v IND | 16.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 18¢ | Kalshi → |
| 300+ pass ydsWAS v IND | 8.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 3+ rush attWAS v IND | 85.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 6+ rush attWAS v IND | 42.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 10+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 85.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 87.8¢under · Kalshi 16.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 75.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 77.3¢ | Kalshi → |
| 20+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 63.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 63¢under · Kalshi 38.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 51.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 53.8¢under · Kalshi 50.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 40+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 25.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 27.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 50+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 15.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 16.9¢ | Kalshi → |
| 60+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 9.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 10.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 70+ rush ydsWAS v IND | 5.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 6.4¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 3, 6:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 3, 6:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Commanders 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Marcus Mariota
What are Marcus Mariota's Kalshi props for Week 4?
As of Oct 3, 6:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 31 strikes on Marcus Mariota against IND: 175+ pass yds at 70.0¢, 2+ TDs at 2.5¢, 25+ rush yds at 51.5¢, anytime TD at 18.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Marcus Mariota 175+ pass yds?
As of Oct 3, 6:10 PM ET, the cheapest over is Kalshi at 72.4¢ (next best 73.3¢), and the cheapest under is Kalshi at 32.5¢ (next best 39.5¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Marcus Mariota's 2026 projection?
Marcus Mariota projects a pending total for 2026. The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 4 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 5 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 3 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
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- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
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- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
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- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
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- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-03; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.