Jake Ferguson
TE · Dallas Cowboys · bye week 14
This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines →Week 5 results →
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Week 6 vs GB — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 6 projection for Jake Ferguson, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Jake Ferguson this week
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Jake Ferguson at 24.5¢ for anytime TD against GB in Week 6, with the best over at Novig (25¢) and the best under at Novig (76¢).
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Jake Ferguson at 3.5¢ for 2+ TDs against GB in Week 6.
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Jake Ferguson at 50.0¢ for 25+ rec yds against GB in Week 6; the 4-book sportsbook consensus implies 50.1%, a 0.1¢ gap, with the best over at Novig (51.9¢) and the best under at ESPN Bet (50¢).
- As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Jake Ferguson at 65.0¢ for 3+ rec against GB in Week 6, with the best over at Kalshi (67.6¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 6 — how often he gets there
Every result Jake Ferguson could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 10·median 31·90th 86
Receptions
10th 2·median 4·90th 8
Flagged WATCH — our input on this one is provenance-limited or contradicted by news, and it is graded separately.
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 6.
Oracle prop calls
Full prop board →Market is the Kalshi price of the side we are calling; the model figure is our probability of that same outcome; divergence is the gap between them in percentage points. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
The Ladder — Jake Ferguson
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 45¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 5+rec——
- 4+rec46¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 3+rec——
We agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 56¢, the books imply 54¢ — 1.0 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4+ recDAL v GB | 45.0¢ | 46.0%6bk | -1.0¢ | over · Novig 46.9¢under · DK 55.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rec ydsDAL v GB | 50.0¢ | 50.1%4bk | -0.1¢ | over · Novig 51.9¢under · ESPN Bet 50¢ | Kalshi → |
| 40+ rec ydsDAL v GB | 26.0¢ | 26.6%exch | -0.6¢ | over · ProphetX 27¢under · Kalshi 76.3¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDDAL v GB | 24.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Novig 25¢under · Novig 76¢ | Kalshi → |
| 2+ TDsDAL v GB | 3.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rec ydsDAL v GB | 71.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 73.4¢under · Kalshi 31.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 50+ rec ydsDAL v GB | 14.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 15.9¢under · Kalshi 87.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 3+ recDAL v GB | 65.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 67.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 5+ recDAL v GB | 27.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 29.9¢under · Kalshi 76.3¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 16, 9:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
142
8.4 per game
Consensus ADP
128
round 11
TE rank
TE12
model has him TE15
2026 range
10th pct 80·median 138·90th pct 226
Measured, not simulated. Our TE projections have landed inside this band 75% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at TE.
Cowboys 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Jake Ferguson
What are Jake Ferguson's Kalshi props for Week 6?
As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 9 strikes on Jake Ferguson against GB: anytime TD at 24.5¢, 2+ TDs at 3.5¢, 25+ rec yds at 50.0¢, 3+ rec at 65.0¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Jake Ferguson anytime TD?
As of Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET, the cheapest over is Novig at 25¢ (next best 26.3¢), and the cheapest under is Novig at 76¢ (next best 77.3¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Jake Ferguson's 2026 projection?
Jake Ferguson projects 142 half-PPR points (8.4 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 128 (round 11). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
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- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
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- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
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- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
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- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
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- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.