Isaiah Davis
RB · New York Jets · bye week 13
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Week 5 vs CLE — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 5 projection for Isaiah Davis, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Isaiah Davis this week
- As of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Isaiah Davis at 52.0¢ for 10+ rush yds against CLE in Week 5; the 2-book sportsbook consensus implies 51.4%, a 0.6¢ gap, with the best over at DK (53.1¢) and the best under at Novig (49¢).
- As of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Isaiah Davis at 27.5¢ for 20+ rush yds against CLE in Week 5, with the best over at ProphetX (29¢) and the best under at Novig (75¢).
- As of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Isaiah Davis at 15.0¢ for anytime TD against CLE in Week 5, with the best over at DK (16.7¢) and the best under at Kalshi (86.8¢).
- As of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Isaiah Davis at 12.5¢ for 30+ rush yds against CLE in Week 5, with the best over at Kalshi (14.8¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Week 5 — how often he gets there
Every result Isaiah Davis could post this week, and the share of them that reach the listed number.
Rec Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 10·90th 51
Receptions
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 2·90th 5
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 2·median 14·90th 52
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the 2026 range elsewhere on this page is preseason, this block is Week 5.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ rush ydsNYJ v CLE | 52.0¢ | 51.4%2bk | +0.6¢ | over · DK 53.1¢under · Novig 49¢ | Kalshi → |
| anytime TDNYJ v CLE | 15.0¢ | — | one-sided | over · DK 16.7¢under · Kalshi 86.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| 20+ rush ydsNYJ v CLE | 27.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 29¢under · Novig 75¢ | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rush ydsNYJ v CLE | 19.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 20.8¢under · Kalshi 84¢ | Kalshi → |
| 30+ rush ydsNYJ v CLE | 12.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 14.8¢ | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 8, 3:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
58
3.4 per game
Consensus ADP
428
round 36
RB rank
RB84
model has him RB85
2026 range
10th pct 29·median 57·90th pct 99
Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
The market drafts him 10 spots earlier than our board does at RB — we are lower on him than consensus.
Jets 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Isaiah Davis
What are Isaiah Davis's Kalshi props for Week 5?
As of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 5 strikes on Isaiah Davis against CLE: 10+ rush yds at 52.0¢, 20+ rush yds at 27.5¢, anytime TD at 15.0¢, 30+ rush yds at 12.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Where is the best price on Isaiah Davis 10+ rush yds?
As of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET, the cheapest over is DK at 53.1¢ (next best 54.5¢), and the cheapest under is Novig at 49¢ (next best 50.8¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.
What is Isaiah Davis's 2026 projection?
Isaiah Davis projects 58 half-PPR points (3.4 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 428 (round 36). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 5 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 4 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-10-08; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.