NFL Player Prop Prices — Kalshi vs Sportsbook Consensus vs Novig
Every NFL player prop Kalshi lists this week, priced against what the big books agree on at the same line and what the other exchanges are asking. A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is a probability — which makes the comparison direct. Where Kalshi is cheaper than everyone else for a side, the gap says so in cents.
New to the maker seat? Markets 101: market maker vs market taker — why resting a bid beats paying the ask.
2026 · Week 7 · Kalshi as of Oct 21, 11:10 PM ET · books as of Oct 21, 9:15 PM ET · 2535 Kalshi prop strikes listed · 785 with a real two-sided book · 39 priced against 3+ books · widest gap: Drake London 80+ rec yds, Kalshi 5¢ above consensus
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →Week 8 predictions →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
This week at a glance
Oracle calls
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our backtest validates, we publish a call — YES or NO on the contract as Kalshi lists it (“3+ receptions”, not “over 2.5”), with the market price of that side beside it. This is the only thing on the page that says play. Priced Oct 21. Projections refresh Wednesday 10 AM ET and again Friday 4 PM ET after the final game-status report; Kalshi prices every 10 minutes.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb WilliamsQBWatch | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | CHI vs NE | NO | 1.2 | — | 44¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Cole KmetTEWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | CHI vs NE | YES | 1.8 | 53% | 35¢ | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Drake MayeQBWatch | 25+ rush ydsover 24.5 | NE vs CHI | NOSkew | 25.1 | — | 41¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Jaylen WarrenRBWatch | 25+ rec ydsover 24.5 | PIT vs NO | NOSkew | 25.3 | — | 49¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRBWatch | 80+ rush ydsover 79.5 | KC vs SEA | NO | 79.3 | — | 46¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Luther Burden IIIWRWatch | 5+ receptionsover 4.5 | CHI vs NE | NOSkew | 4.7 | 53% | 46¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Jonathan TaylorRBWatch | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | IND vs MIN | NOSkew | 17.3 | — | 47¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Eli RaridonTEWatch | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | NE vs CHI | YES | 21.4 | — | 49¢ | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
8 of 8 props
Skew — our projection is an average, and on a right-skewed stat a few big games can pull it past a threshold most games never reach. The call comes from the full distribution, not the average; the badge says the two disagree. Never the top call.
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Prop market board
Every Kalshi strike this week. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents — positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books. Exchange quotes are shown raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call — and it is read across two clocks: Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes, the sportsbook consensus hourly, so late in an hour a gap can be a fresh Kalshi mid against a book median up to an hour old. Both times are stated on the board.
14 games · 785 two-sided strikes · + 1,750 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced · book consensus as of Oct 21, 9:15 PM ET · open a game to load its strikes.
CIN @ BAL41 two-sided strikes · 14 players · show strikes ▾
CLE @ TEN19 two-sided strikes · 11 players · show strikes ▾
DAL @ PHI7 two-sided strikes · 5 players · show strikes ▾
DEN @ ARI24 two-sided strikes · 11 players · show strikes ▾
GB @ DET62 two-sided strikes · 19 players · show strikes ▾
IND @ MIN33 two-sided strikes · 13 players · show strikes ▾
KC @ SEA48 two-sided strikes · 15 players · show strikes ▾
LAR @ LV51 two-sided strikes · 14 players · show strikes ▾
MIA @ NYJ11 two-sided strikes · 7 players · show strikes ▾
NE @ CHI285 two-sided strikes · 23 players · show strikes ▾
Build a combo →NE @ CHI full ladder →
- CHI: Caleb Williams, CHI Bears D/ST, Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland, D'Andre Swift, Jahdae Walker, Kalif Raymond, Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Roschon Johnson, Sam Roush, Zavion Thomas
- NE: A.J. Brown, Corey Kiner, DeMario Douglas, Drake Maye, Efton Chism III, Eli Raridon, Hunter Henry, Kyle Williams, NE Patriots D/ST, Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson
NYG @ HOU51 two-sided strikes · 18 players · show strikes ▾
PIT @ NO71 two-sided strikes · 19 players · show strikes ▾
SF @ ATL53 two-sided strikes · 14 players · show strikes ▾
TB @ CAR29 two-sided strikes · 13 players · show strikes ▾
The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike
The prop board shows strikes; the Ladder shows the whole margin distribution beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.
MCP · nfl_prop_board
Season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps
Updated Oct 21, 11:50 PM ETThe same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.
| Player · market | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesPassing touchdowns leader | 3.0¢ | 9.4¢ | -6.4¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Bryce YoungPassing yards leader | 14.0¢ | 8.7¢ | +5.3¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Matthew StaffordPassing touchdowns leader | 3.5¢ | 8.5¢ | -5.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving yards leader | 2.5¢ | 6.5¢ | -4.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Trevor LawrencePassing touchdowns leader | 6.5¢ | 10.3¢ | -3.8¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jordan LovePassing yards leader | 8.5¢ | 5.3¢ | +3.2¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Patrick MahomesPassing yards leader | 1.5¢ | 4.7¢ | -3.2¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| T.J. WattSacks leader | 8.0¢ | 4.8¢ | +3.2¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jared GoffPassing yards leader | 19.5¢ | 17.5¢ | +2.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Derrick HenryRushing yards leader | 7.5¢ | 9.5¢ | -2.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
Full season-leader board — 156 players priced on both venues across 9 markets →
Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike: exact when a book quotes that line, linearly interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, and refused — shown as off-ladder — when they do not. We never extrapolate past the ladder and never count a line quoted by a single book. Exchange quotes (Novig, ProphetX) are shown exactly as quoted and labelled raw: their ladders are mostly one-sided, and de-vigging one side would invent a number.
Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only — spread within our prop gate and open interest or volume above zero. A strike quoted 1¢/99¢ is listed, not priced, and shows as such. A gap wider than 30 cents on a booked strike is flagged check rather than published: on a liquid market that size of disagreement is far likelier to be a stale quote than a price.
We are not claiming to beat the market. The Oracle calls come from a prop backtest graded against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it tells us whether a stated 10-point edge behaves like ten points — calibration — and nothing about beat rate. The measure that would settle it is closing line value, captured live from Week 1 and published once there is a season of it. The game model underneath, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games (2013–2024): 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, 0.664 log loss — figures that grade game outcomes, not props.
NFL player props on Kalshi — FAQ
What is on the NFL prop market board?
Every player-prop contract Kalshi lists for the current NFL week — passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown, one row per strike. Beside each Kalshi price sits the sportsbook consensus probability read at that exact strike, the prices Novig and ProphetX quote for the same line, and the gap between Kalshi and consensus in cents. Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes; the sportsbook consensus is re-read hourly, and the board says when each was last read.
What does the gap column mean?
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is an implied probability. The gap is that price minus the sportsbook consensus probability at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over higher than the books; negative means Kalshi is cheaper. We tag a gap at 5¢ or more when at least three books underpin the consensus, and a wide gap at 8¢. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation — it is where two markets disagree, which is where a trader should look first.
Why do some rows say "listed · no book" or "off-ladder"?
Kalshi lists a week’s prop strikes early and most are not priced until a day or two before kickoff — a 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a book, and we never manufacture a mid from it. Off-ladder means the sportsbooks quote lines that do not bracket that Kalshi strike; we read the book curve at a strike only when it sits between two real quoted lines, and we never extrapolate past the ladder.
Does Polymarket have NFL player props?
Not weekly ones. Polymarket lists season-long leader markets — passing, rushing and receiving yards leaders, receptions and touchdown leaders, MVP and the AP awards — but no per-game player props, so there is no Polymarket column on the weekly board. Kalshi is the only prediction market with a weekly prop ladder, which is why this board is built around it.
Why does the board say YES or NO on "3+ receptions" instead of over/under 2.5?
Because that is the contract. Every Kalshi NFL player prop is an "X or more" market — 3+ receptions, 50+ rushing yards, 4+ passing touchdowns — and a YES contract pays $1 if the player gets there. The sportsbook phrasing "over 2.5" describes the same event, and we keep it as a muted note on each row, but a reader comparing a 2.6-reception projection to "2.5" gets the wrong answer: the contract needs 3. So the call is YES or NO on the contract, the market price shown is the price of the side we are calling, and the edge is stated on that side. Where our average projection sits on the other side of the threshold from our call — a right-skewed stat where a few big games lift the average — the row carries a SKEW badge.
What is an Oracle call, and does the model beat the market?
An Oracle call is a strike where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our own backtest validates, that we publish it as a PLAY or a WATCH. We do not claim the model beats the market. Our prop backtest grades against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it is a calibration check — does a stated 10-point edge behave like 10 points — and nothing more. The honest measure is closing line value, captured live from Week 1, and we will publish it once we have a season of it.
How accurate is the model behind the Oracle calls?
The game model these projections descend from, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games from 2013–2024 in a walk-forward backtest: 59.6% straight up, a Brier score of 0.236 and log loss of 0.664. Those figures grade game outcomes, not player props; the prop layer is newer, which is why we publish CLV rather than borrowing the game model’s record.
Which prop types get Oracle calls, and why not all of them?
Rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and passing touchdowns. Passing yards and anytime touchdown are deliberately never published as calls, even when Kalshi lists them and our model shows a gap: across 10,161 graded player-weeks from 2024 and 2025 the top edge decile hits between 54% and 66% on the four we publish, 46% on passing yards, and anytime touchdown fails the same test. Their Kalshi prices still appear on the market board — the price is real even where our opinion is not worth stating.
Every player on this board has a page — projection, range, every booked Kalshi strike. Browse all player pages →
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 7 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 8 predictions — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 6 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale