FTF E12: 2026 Expert NFL Win Total Predictions: Broncos, Jags and More!

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another edition of Fade the Field. I am Coach Jean Clemens, joined as always of my guy Chris James. You can follow him at CJ Florida9. Follow me at Coach Jean Clemens or Jean Clemens, wherever you're going. It don't really matter. Um CJ, it's good to see you, man. What's going on? I'm doing a lot better than France is right now. Right. As we're as we're recording this, Spain is putting BTA to France. It's two-0 um with 66 minutes gone and France is is trying. They're pressing now. Uh because they have no other choice. And you know, like literally as we're recording this, if you see one of us kind of dart off, it's because something just like happened. Like right now we were talking France just had a a a shot at goal that they may have gotten in. It just barely got deflected away. So um this game is is hot and heavy. But you know what else is hot and heavy and right on the on the brink of everything CJ the NFL. And obviously you and I know this is this is our time. Like we bike like you know training camps are getting ready to open up. Um, and so over the next few weeks, we'll be going through all of the team totals and and letting you guys know what we think, what we think personally, what the um what the win total predictions say over at the Seven Oracles and and what you're playing and how to how to play them based off of what they're trading on Koshi and other prediction markets um alike. So, um, you know, make sure you're you're here and and and check them out. Make sure you subscribe to the channel. Make sure you're going to the the website the sevenoracles.com to get everything that you need to to ensure that you are always up on game. And remember this, um, and this is something that we we always want to tell people that a lot of people don't say. Whenever you're whenever you're looking at models and you're looking at um data analysis, remember that at the beginning of a football season, all the data that we have it all of the knowledge that we have is based off last year, right? Like we we don't have any any knowledge about what any of these players are going to be in 2026. we have what we believe based off of, you know, our years in the game, but we don't know until we legitimately see it. So, don't be surprised if like a things look a little bit like, man, these these feel off early in the year and we start changing our tune in year in week two and week three and you start seeing the models really tighten up. So like the way in which we we analyze this thing CJ we you know it changes once we've seen new new information with our eyes and that's the same thing for our our computer analysis and everything that that they have going on. It's going to change once we're able to put new information in front of people. Correct. I mean if you want to sit here and say it in the 2024 season after two weeks the Saints were the best team in the NFL and it wasn't close. Even after third week, they still look reasonable. We saw how that season ended. So things can change. We we just need to stay on top of everything in the confluence of all the the items involved. Yeah. And and one thing you should always know is if a team has a good quarterback, they're probably going to be good. Like it's usually the way things work in the NFL and college. If you have a good quarterback, you're probably going to be decent. you're probably not gonna unless that quarterback's hurt and then you're probably going to be bad because that's the way it works as well. Um but let's get started. We we let's go and and hop in with our first um team today. We've gone through a few already and we'll we'll take you through four more today. And this one is um will the Broncos win 11 games? Um if you're if you're looking right now um the Broncos the Broncos are a very um sexy pick from people because like quiet as it kept they were the number two seed last year, right? Like they they had achieved some things. They won games. um they set themselves up. They were the number two seed and um because of that a lot of people think a healthy Broncos team u who has made some improvements on defense um and and and and the health of people on defense I should say um will will give them the opportunity to have a much better season this year. the yes there um there's been projected wins for them anywhere um between nine and 10 games depending upon where you are right on Koshi um currently the Broncos and um excuse me uh I believe the right now on couchi the Broncos are like 10 wins is the projection based off of you know the the the amount of volume on the forecast. 10.4 is the is the forecast right now. So the the question then becomes will the will the Broncos win 11 games? Because 11 games is where you need to be looking if you are trying to make money. Like 11 games is kind of where you want to where you want to be at. So, um, right now for the Broncos with everything they have coming back, Bo Knicks going into another season, um, the defense being what they are, the offensive weapons that they've added, what's your what's your thought process on the Broncos? So, my wins and decks, I have them at 10.12, but their actual win total, I have them currently at 12 and five. So, I have them achieving that 11 win prop. The big thing for them is they get the the worst first quarter of the season and I think that they're a 500 team in there. It is literally set up for them to fail. They're at the let's see they're at the Chiefs to start off the season. They're home against Jacksonville which is a tough one. Home against the Rams and then they're at the 49ers. That's a murderous row for the first month. I think they'll be two and two in that stretch. And the big thing is you can put some money into the yes on them achieving 11 wins right now and then you can probably tank more into them achieving it after a two and two start because people will think oh they're not the team they're not ready. I think they have an easier back end. That's where they'll make you money and that's where you can actually get some wins especially start now but then when they go two and two you put more money down. Yeah. I'm, you know, the the over at the Seven Oracles, the prediction um for for for them over there is much lower for the um for the Broncos. Again, you you can take it how you want, but um for them, the the projection is at nine. Um and I think that that comes with a a few things. A, obviously, whenever you have a winning season, um you come back and the strength of schedule is going to be um bigger. Um, I also, um, for for me personally, I'm looking at the health of Bo Knicks. Will he be good to go? If he's not, what does that mean for the team? Um, I think it's interesting because when you when you talk about where they're trading at, um, you know, um, 11 plus wins, no on 11 plus wins is is at, um, trading at 60 cents, um, a share, whereas yes on 11 plus wins is 41 cents. Clearly, um, the yes on 11 plus wins is where you can really make bread. Um, if you're if you're agree if you agree with the model, if you agree with our model right now, then you would go no on um 10 plus wins because you don't think they're going to get to 10. If you're with if you're with CJ, which I believe I'm closer to CJ on this, um I think that they definitely get to 10 wins. Um you know, the yes on 10 wins is 56 56 cents. So within there, the value for me is to find that sweet spot, that 10 10 wins in there. And that's probably where I would be looking at um trying to wager if I wanted to wager on there, I'd be going for that um 10 cent mark. Yeah, you can actually play it both ways. So the no on 11 wins gets you a larger rake. So you can put that in there right now. You can actually play that into the season again with that rough start. you can sell that off, use the equity from that, and then you can reinvest in whether you think it's 10 or 11 wins and probably get a larger rake at that point than you would get right now. So, you can play it both ways. That no is a a good button to press, especially when there's a rough start to the season like the Broncos have. Yeah. because you know ultimately you're trying to you're trying to make money and it doesn't really matter how you you know make the money on your investment. It's just about you know making sure you get it in in the right place to watch that investment mature the fastest. Right. So, if if like you said, if you're um if they're going to start off if if you think that they're going to start off struggling, then it makes a lot of sense to to go under on 11, maybe even go under on 10. Because if they start off as, you know, two and two, people are going to be like, "Ah, this this team's a 500 team. Nine wins is probably, you know, close to what they're going to be." you'll start to see your probability of, you know, um your your value on the 10 wins start to go up. You might be able to to sell that early if you think for sure they're going to get to 10 wins with the late, you know, the late run in the season. So, um it's a good way to look at it and always want to be looking at the angles to be able to go at these things. Um let's check out the next one. And the same question for the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team very interesting because um a lot of a lot of expectations for this Jaguar team. A lot of money has been spent on the players in this Jaguar organization. A lot of talent. Um Trevor Lawrence seemed to realize his full potential for a section of the season. The question becomes, can he do that for an entire season? Can he be that good for the entire season? Right now on Koshi, Jacksonville is trading um 9 and a half on on the forecast, but the the 10 plus wins, the 10 plus wins is trading at 46 cents. So a yes on um 10 plus wins is 46 cents. But if you think that the Jaguars are really that that team, which a lot of people think they could be a darkhorse team, 11 wins is trading at 32 cents. Now we're talking about some real value on investing. What's your thought process on the Jaguars? Do you think people are jumping out the um jumping out the window with 11 or or do you think that there's merit for people to think that they could possibly get to that total? So, I'm actually going to fade them. I think that Jacksonville is a standard B team. They're a good team. They're not a great team. I think they won a lot of those games and those decisions that when they were 50/50, they ended up getting the win last year. I don't think they have the same I don't want to call it luck but I don't think it goes in their favor this year. I actually have them with a 9 and8 record. Now I have them with a higher win index than that but I think a lot of those 50-50 games go away from them because they line up poorly. As an example late in the season they'll get to play at Green Bay I believe. So, if you end up having a situation like that where you have to play someone, excuse me, they don't play late at Green Bay, but they have some games that don't line up well with them late in the season and early in the season, they do won't line up well enough. I just don't think that they're going to be able to beat teams like, let's say, a Houston on the road. They may split with them, but in a lot of these circumstances, I'm going to take the opposite field on this. I'm gonna fade them. I'm gonna have him with a 9-8 record and I'm taking the under on any double digit total that has to do with the Jacksonville Jaguars. I I completely under I understand what you're talking about. Um CJ and I'm with you and and the the models over at the Seven Oracles are with you as well. Um they have the Jaguars at right at 10 wins which is pretty much where you know every the line has been for the Jaguars for for a while. Like um if you're talking about other um establishment 11 win excuse me 10 wins has been the line it and and you know over at the models they have them slated for 10.1. That doesn't get me all warm and fuzzy inside right. Um, so I I think that that's there's the possibility that this could be a regression for this team. They could fall back. I I know that everybody is ready to to crown Trevor Lawrence and and unfortunately it it never seems to take much for the some of these guys to to get crowned as the the dude, right? We're still waiting for Justin Herbert to reach his full his full potential and everyone keeps making him a top five quarterback every single year. Um I I I like what Trevor Lawrence did last year. If we were doing fantasy, I'd be all in on Trevor Lawrence this year, but this ain't fantasy. We're talking about winning games. Um, I I think that their division, which has been kind of lackluster over the years, I think it'll um it'll it'll be as competitive as as it's been this year. I think they will um struggle to find enough balls for everybody in the offense. Like, who's going to be your your your your running back? Is it going to be Toutin? Is it going to be Rodriguez? Who knows where who's going to be the the go-to wide receiver? I have so many questions. And with so many questions, that to me says we're going to lose some games just because we don't have a a go-to entity in the clutch. And that's how you end up as a nine- team in my opinion. So, I would I would fade this as well. I would go um against the money. I would look I would look at nine wins and and um look at the no on 10 wins which is trading at 55% which is not bad money um you know for your investment and and and try to see if I can make something happen there. Yeah. And I must spoke earlier about their schedule but their schedule is rough down the stretch. I have them going eight and five the first 13 games and then they're at Houston at Dallas. They have a home game against the Commanders, which is a tough one. And then at Indianapolis, that's a rough stretch to try to end the season on. That's part of why I have them with that nine and eight record. It's not that they're a bad team. Again, they're a B team, but that doesn't always equate to double digit wins. Yeah, I I agree. I just they're not bad. I I don't I don't have faith in them to be great, if that makes any sense. And I think um with it being so competitive in today's NFL, in order to get to 10 wins, you're going to have to be great. Like, you're not going to just be able to be okay or or be or mediocre and and get to 10 wins. Um because it's so competitive and on any given day, a bad team can beat you. Correct. Yeah. Let's go to the next Let's go to the next one. This one, this one is interesting, right? Because um shout out to Jay-Z. He had a, you know, his three-day concert essentially in in New York at at Yankee Stadium. Um he has a line and there's this there's this old adage that Jay-Z has a line for anything that you're dealing with in life. Um people out here saying they made Hoveve made Hoveve say okay so make another Hoveve right people have been long saying oh Mike Tomlin is just you know he's not a good coach he's he's not a they're they're just winning because they're winning like they don't they didn't want to give him any any any credit for what he's been able to do you know over his tenure and now right and now we're in a situation where you no longer have Mike Tomlin. So, what you gonna do, right? What you going to do? How what is it going to look like now that Mike Tomlin's not in the picture? And the the question that I have is will this team win? Will this be a winning team in in 2026? So, quickly on Tomlin, first off, for you all who had any doubts about Tomlin as a coach, Mike Tomlin got caught in a little chasm of this generation versus that generation. But to win as many games as he did and to have as many winning seasons, that's greatness. He's a Hall of Fame coach. So, if you don't respect it, that's a you thing, not a him thing. As far as how this team is set up, he was able to get wins with this team that clearly was not truly a winning team on both sides of the ball because of some of the management issues. I think they go seven and 10 this year. And that sounds rough. Sounds gruff. But are they better than the Ravens? The answer is likely no. Are they better than the Bengals? The answer is likely no. Are they better than most of the teams they're going to play when it comes to those upper echelon teams? The answer is likely no. And that's why I'm pointing towards seven and 10 as their record in 2026. And and it's interesting too um CJ because over on Koshi they're they're they're trading seven seven plus wins is trading at 69 cents. Eight plus wins no on eight plus wins is at 46 cents. The overall consensus for the line is at 7 and a half. I think this is the first year that the Pittsburgh Steelers don't win or don't don't have a a a non- losing season, right? Because I think Mike Tomlin matters. I think that having him or not having him is going to make a difference. I And I have nothing against Mike McCarthy. I think Mike McCarthy is a a good coach. Um not a great coach, but a good coach. And I think that their offense will be better. And some of the reasons that that um Mike Tomlin gained criticism was legitimate. The the offense or the offensive coordinators that he brought in, they were some a lot of unimaginative coordinators that that left lackluster performances on the field. I just think you you've got an old quarterback who's already announced that this is going to be his final season. Um, yeah, he'll be motivated, but how good will he be? Will it just be a bunch of checkdowns? Is he willing to get is he willing to stand in the fire and deliver the passes that it felt like he wasn't willing to deliver over, you know, the last, let's say, two seasons. Um, one with Pittsburgh and one with the Jets. Yeah. I mean, the offense, Aaron Rogers at this stage is no Dak Prescott, so they're not going to be a 12 and five level offense. By the way, you can scam in fantasy in PPR format. G uh Jeremy Bernard [laughter] is going to eat this year because of how that offense set up. But even on the defensive side, there was that correlation between the defense and kind of an intimidation factor with Mike Tomlin that went against the Baltimore of the world. That's why they always split or Cincinnati. I don't think that that intimidation's there with Mike McCarthy. And I think that there's a good chance that both sweep them this year. Something that hasn't happened in a very long time. Yeah, I I could see a world I could see a world where Pittsburgh loses all their division games. I could see a world where Pittsburgh gets, you know, 02 versus Baltimore and a healthy and a healthy Lamar Jackson ticked off because somebody still thinks that he's the 69th best player in the NFL. I promise I wasn't going to speak on NFL, you know, top 100, but my god, um, there there's a there's a world where a healthy Cincinnati Bengals team with Joe Burrow and all those guys on offense, but now also with a um, a game changer at noseguard who can help with the run defense and allow the pass rush to be more dynamic because what what he provides on the side makes them better. They could go 02 versus the Bengals. And a lot of people are going to be surprised at how um man, this is it's weird to say, but I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at how much the loss of Miles Garrett doesn't hurt that defense, if that makes sense. It's like I think that a a guy like Miles Garrett and what he does it it it only be it only becomes super valuable if you get teams to pass, right? And and and the sack totals themselves that they don't move me. It's the other stuff like the other ways that you affect the game. And the fact that the the the the Browns weren't the greatest against the run tells me that hey, Miles Garrett wasn't the greatest against the run or or at least a factor enough to where the defense was better against the run because he was there. And so when you replace him with a guy who I believe is a really good, you know, a really good um talent to to go into his place, how much do you really lose? If I'm going to go from a guy who got me um, you know, 20 plus 20 plus sacks and now I'm going to go to a guy that gets me 15 sacks, am I really losing a ton in that in that in that regard? I think they'll have more more defensive weapons. I think they'll they'll mature a little bit. Linebackers and and and and defensive tackles um with with Graham and and and those boys having another year. I think that's going to make them better. I wouldn't be surprised if they're 02 versus the Browns. Like th this could be a real disaster for Pittsburgh this year. Yeah. The removal of Miles Garrett allows for the oxygen in the room to be taken up by other pieces. to your point, those younger guys, they can kind of gel and blend together and they might actually be a better complete defensive unit even with losing a better defensive player. And yeah, I I will be shocked if they go 0 and six in a division, but at the same point in time, one and five would not shock me. You know, I think they have to grab one. If you if you go one and five, then there's a chance you can go 0 and six and six. Like, and that's the thing. I would have ne under Tomlin I would never even utter out of my mouth, oh they they could lose all six division games. Like I would never say that. And now it's a real possibility in my mind. Partly because of what those teams have done and the improvements that they've had they've made and the health, but also partly because of what the who the Steelers are and what their makeup's going to be now and how they're going to try to go about winning. I think that that's going to say a lot. We're gonna find out exactly what um coaching is made of. And if they come out, by the way, if they come out and they win nine games, then I'll shut up. Like, I'll say I'm wrong. Oh, wow. Okay, cool. Like, they were able to continue the standard that he's been able to, you know, build over the years. It didn't just immediately fall off once he walked out the door. And and that'll be great, too. Let's get to this last one. The Houston Texans. The Houston Texans are man, they're they're a weird team, right? Like they we we associate them with being good except right like when it's time to be really good, they just haven't been able to get over that hump. um in the playoffs. They've had some struggles in the regular season um offensive inefficiency um via quarterback play or um based off of receivers being out and injured and the running game not being where it should be. What's your thought with the Houston Texans? Um is is are we looking at an 11 win team this year or are we looking at something much less? I actually have them with 11 wins on the nose. Uh, and they have the highest wins deck index in that particular division, 10.33. My whole thing with Houston is the following. The schedule did them some favors that it doesn't feel like it did. Their first game is against Buffalo. They've done traditionally well against Josh Allen, defended him well, and I think with the new implementation of a new defense and them getting more of a run game in, I think that they can beat Buffalo early on. Cincinnati struggles against certain pressures, especially with fourman rush. That's game two. Then they get Indie at Indie with Daniel Jones just getting his Cellays back. I don't think they lose till Dallas. The reason I'm saying this is because they do have a difficult schedule and it lays out well enough for them to pad their stats early on and then try to figure some stuff out later in the season when they try to really become a true playoff threat, something they haven't been uh while CJ Strad's been under center. Yeah, I'm with you. It It's It's weird. Like, so the line the line in a lot of places for Houston is 10, right? So, the model over at um the Seven Oracles have them at 9.2. Um so, they think, hey, they're going to be um just under. I My my question goes back to the running game. Like, can you take pressure off everyone else by establishing a legitimate rushing attack? David Montgomery is now in the fold. He's back to I'm I would assume be the lead back. Why else would you, you know, go to Houston unless you're going there to be the lead back? But David Montgomery's got some, you know, he's got some miles on the, you know, on the tires. And so it becomes, can he can he be like, can he be Knuckles without Sonic, right? Like, can he be the guy who is taking up the line share of the work and is able to give is able to give a team what they need in order to allow them to be balanced, which then opens up the the effectiveness of the passing game because you have to worry about the run. Um, I I don't know. I don't know if I'm being honest. I don't know. I I don't think it would be hard for me to to look at this and say, "Hey, they're going to be a nine- win team, but I wouldn't be surprised. I like them to probably be somewhere around, you know, 10 wins." And if I'm looking at this and and how it's trading on Koshi, um, yes, on nine plus wins is 66%. Or 66 cents, excuse me. Um, but 10 plus wins is 54 cents, right? You know, I don't like to be right on the number where it if you don't get that number, you don't you don't get it. So, for me, like I look at 11 plus wins, the yes is 39 cents. You said you like them um 11 wins on the nose. To me, that means go yes on the 10 wins and and and and and monitor because there may be a chance to flip to the no on 10 wins um some point in in the season if you see it not going that way. Yeah, that Buffalo game game one is going to dictate quite a bit for both teams season win totals and I have both teams winning. Yeah, doing well in that game and then doing well afterwards. I I just I I I take Houston in that one, especially with the Kate McDonald ad in the draft, I think also helps against strong running teams like what Buffalo. So, yeah, it'll be it'll be interesting how Buffalo comes out. We'll get to them obviously here um next week on our on our projections, but Houston interesting the 11, you know, the 10 games as the line for them. Um if you like them, you know what I'm saying? Like, and that's the thing, and that's why we say, "Will Houston win 11 games?" Cuz if the line is 10 games, then I'm never telling people go right on the line, right? Like, if if you think that they're going to win 10 games, then you want a buffer. Yeah. You need some room. Again, none of us know what these teams are going to do during the season. And so that buffer allows you for some for some variance on what we may have gotten wrong. Right? So if you if the line is at 10 and you think they're going to win 10, then you should be looking at, okay, how close are they to to 11 wins? Because I'm probably going no on 11 if they're not close to 11 wins. Um if how how if they're close to 10, like how close is it on 10? Is it are you saying 10.1? because I might want to sprinkle something on less than 10 because it's it's just one game and and and you you don't know some of these teams get out of it and in the first seven weeks they just go up this ain't going to be our season and now they're and now they're looking to tank. So Houston is conservative is the way I put it but they are a minimum variance team. They play great defense and they really want to establish the run and play ball control. So, they're going to play every game close to the vest for the most part. They're not going to have a 40point win and then three-point the next week. They're not one of those teams. Each year, there's an average of just about one tie per season across the league. It just pops up from nowhere. And Houston is a candidate for that type of thing. you take them at 11, all of a sudden they're 106 and one because they played it close to the vest just to savor, you know, a tie over another team that would go for it. So, yeah, that's that's true. The conservative nature, a a defensive coach, right, a defensive head coach is ne is probably never going to be the guy telling the offense to be hella aggressive. By the way, I think that that's a mistake. If we've ever we've ever have if we ever talking philosophy, right? I don't know why as a defensive head coach, if I think I have a really good defense, if I think I have one of those ones, um, a few years ago, um, one of the teams I was coaching with, um, I was coaching defense and our defense was lights out. I knew that we're never giving up more than 14 points. that 14 points might come early. Like we've had games where we had just back-toback bad plays and boom, we're 14 points out the out the gate. I'm telling the head coach, hey, listen. They're going to score. They're going to score 14 or less. Don't worry about how it comes. Like, don't let that don't let that get in the way of your of of how you call this game. I said, "If you get to the 50, go for it." Like, turn it into four down territory. We'll deal with whatever else comes with it. Like, if you don't get it, we'll defend that 50 yard field. I've got no I've got no problem with it whatsoever. and and giving them the freedom, giving that offensive staff the freedom to be able to um operate like that allowed them to take more risk and be more aggressive because they knew they had four downs to play with as opposed to, you know, just three. I don't see why more defensive-minded coaches don't do that when they know they have a really good defense. I completely agree. It it it just allows you It's an extra offensive player to be honest. Absolutely. Um, out of these out of these four, real quick before we get out of here. Out of these four games, let me see these four um, positions, which one do you like the most? Like if you if you had to tell the people to invest in one of these four that we've gone over today, the Broncos, the Jags, um, Pittsburgh, and, um, Houston. Which which position do you like the most? I have a dual answer as of today. Take that Pittsburgh under or whatever the total is when the season starts. I told you about how things are kind of going to roll and operate for let's say like a Denver Broncos team. That's when I jump on their over. So today, take the under on Pittsburgh and feel good about it. Once that season gets going, Broncos take their over after they open up like two and two. I was about to say Broncos open up two and two, then pounce and jump on that for that 10 plus wins. Um maybe even 11 wins if you think that that's where they're that's where they're heading. Yes, 100%. Awesome. Awesome. Um tell everybody where they can find you, what you got going on right now. Um regail us with all the stuff. So Chop It Up with CJ, that's the podcast. You can find it anywhere you love your your favorite podcast. Right now I'm doing a early fantasy football outlook. The new season will be starting up in about three weeks where I'll be doing four shows a week going over different things in the NFL as well as the college ranks once a week. So that's chopping it up with CJ W and a slash is the width. Absolutely. And obviously make sure you check them out. Follow him on social media at CJ Florida9. Check me out at Jean Clemens. All the things all the time. And get over to the sevenoracles.com. Hey, listen. The subscribers are starting to pop up. We've we killed the World Cup coverage. Um, by the way, France is gone. Sorry for you people who thought Mbappe was going to win the Golden Boot. Probably not going to happen now. Um, you know, or it could. I mean, if if Argentina goes down, um, Harry Kane still in the running for the golden boot. He's got some work to do. Um, but, you know, we we've been killing the coverage over there. Make sure you get over and see that. I promise you when you see all the stuff that we're going to have um that we have already for the NFL, but that we will have for NFL and college football as we continue on into football season. You're going to want to be there. Don't forget it's not just about sports over at the Seven Oracles. Um check out our Big Brother coverage. You know, that'll be going on as well. Love Island is over, right? And I know a lot of you guys are in Love Island, but you know, if you're looking for your next next show um to to get involved in, Big Brother could be that one. Come over and check out what we're saying over there. And on and on and on. Until next time, I'm Coach Jean Clemens. That is my guy CJ and this is the Fade the Field