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Michael Penix

· Atlanta Falcons

This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines →Week 5 results →

Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers

Week 6 vs CHI — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.

Our Week 6 projection for Michael Penix, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Where the market has Michael Penix this week

A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.

The week's sharpest prop, across every player

One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes and free to embed.

The Ladder — Michael Penix

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

Michael PenixPass AttMARKET READView 31+ pass att on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 31+ pass att at 51¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 31+ pass att
YES 51¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
Michael PenixCompletionsMARKET READView 21+ completions on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 21+ completions at 45¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 21+ completions
YES 45¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
Michael PenixInterceptionsMARKET READView 1+ INTs on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 1+ INTs at 48¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 1+ INTs
YES 48¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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Michael Penix Kalshi prop ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every strike vs the sportsbook consensus
Michael Penix's headline Kalshi ladder this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Embed this player’s prop ladder

A live card locked to Michael Penix — the Kalshi price at every strike of his headline prop beside the sportsbook consensus — for a team blog, a fantasy newsletter or a player post. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

Every NFL prediction-market widget.

Article width · 560×300

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Michael Penix Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/michael-penix?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Sidebar · 320×280

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Michael Penix Kalshi prop ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/players/michael-penix?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-player-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Prop market — every Kalshi strike

Full market board →
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Michael Penix with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
ContractKalshiConsensusGapBest priceTrade
anytime TDATL v CHI7.5¢—one-sidedover · Kalshi 8.5¢under · Novig 93¢Kalshi →
31+ pass attATL v CHI50.5¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
16+ completionsATL v CHI82.5¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
21+ completionsATL v CHI44.5¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
26+ completionsATL v CHI12.5¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
1+ INTsATL v CHI47.5¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
1+ pass TDsATL v CHI83.0¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
2+ pass TDsATL v CHI50.0¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
3+ pass TDsATL v CHI21.0¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
4+ pass TDsATL v CHI7.0¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →
150+ pass ydsATL v CHI90.0¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 91.6¢under · Kalshi 11.7¢Kalshi →
175+ pass ydsATL v CHI82.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 84.9¢under · Kalshi 20.1¢Kalshi →
225+ pass ydsATL v CHI57.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Fanatics 58.3¢under · Kalshi 45.7¢Kalshi →
250+ pass ydsATL v CHI43.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Fanatics 44.4¢under · Kalshi 59.7¢Kalshi →
300+ pass ydsATL v CHI20.0¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · DK 20.7¢Kalshi →
325+ pass ydsATL v CHI11.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Fanatics 13.3¢Kalshi →
350+ pass ydsATL v CHI6.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · DK 7.7¢Kalshi →
375+ pass ydsATL v CHI5.0¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Kalshi 6.4¢Kalshi →
10+ rush ydsATL v CHI22.0¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · DK 24.6¢Kalshi →
15+ rush ydsATL v CHI14.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · DK 13.9¢Kalshi →

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Oct 16, 7:10 PM ET, books as of Oct 16, 5:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Falcons 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

at PIT

Week 2

vs CAR

Week 3

at GB

Week 4

at NO

Week 5

vs BAL

Week 6

vs CHI

Week 7

vs SF

Week 8

at TB

Week 9

vs CIN

Week 10

vs KC

Week 12

at MIN

Week 13

vs DET

Week 14

at CLE

Week 15

at WAS

Week 16

vs TB

Week 17

vs NO

Week 18

at CAR

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about Michael Penix

What are Michael Penix's Kalshi props for Week 6?

As of Oct 16, 7:10 PM ET, Kalshi lists 20 strikes on Michael Penix against CHI: 2+ pass TDs at 50.0¢, 31+ pass att at 50.5¢, 21+ completions at 44.5¢, anytime TD at 7.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.

What is Michael Penix's 2026 projection?

Michael Penix projects a pending total for 2026. The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

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Projections as of 2026-10-16; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.