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Gardner Minshew II Week 9 Projection & Kalshi Props

QB · Arizona Cardinals · bye week 14

This week on the boardNFL Week 9 predictions →Week 10 predictions →Week 8 results →

Week 9 gamesJaguars at RavensBengals at FalconsBroncos at PanthersCowboys at ColtsJets at ChiefsLions at DolphinsBrowns at SaintsGiants at EaglesRams at CommandersTexans at ChargersRaiders at 49ersPackers at PatriotsCardinals at SeahawksBuccaneers at BearsBills at Vikings

Week 9 vs SEA — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.

Our Week 9 projection for Gardner Minshew II, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Where the market has Gardner Minshew II this week

A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.

Last game

Week 8 at Cowboys: 17/23 · 188 yds · 3 TD (W 33-30, OT) → recap

The week's sharpest prop, across every player

One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes — preview it free; publishing runs on an Enterprise license.

Prop market — every Kalshi strike

Full market board →
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Gardner Minshew II with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
ContractKalshiConsensusGapBest priceTrade
anytime TDARI v SEA6.5¢—one-sidedover · DK 6.7¢under · Kalshi 94.4¢Kalshi →
200+ pass ydsARI v SEA50.5¢off-ladderoff-ladderover · Novig 50¢under · Novig 51.9¢Kalshi →

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Nov 5, 2:20 AM ET, books as of Nov 4, 11:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value

Projected points

203

11.9 per game

Consensus ADP

400

round 34

QB rank

QB31

model has him QB31

2026 range

10th pct 151·median 187·90th pct 269

Measured, not simulated. Our QB projections have landed inside this band 80% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.

Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at QB.

Cardinals 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

at LAC

Week 2

vs SEA

Week 3

at SF

Week 4

at NYG

Week 5

vs DET

Week 6

at LAR

Week 7

vs DEN

Week 8

at DAL

Week 9

at SEA

Week 10

vs LAR

Week 11

at KC

Week 12

vs WAS

Week 13

vs PHI

Week 15

vs NYJ

Week 16

at NO

Week 17

vs LV

Week 18

vs SF

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about Gardner Minshew II

What are Gardner Minshew II's Kalshi props for Week 9?

As of Nov 5, 2:20 AM ET, Kalshi lists 2 strikes on Gardner Minshew II against SEA: 200+ pass yds at 50.5¢, anytime TD at 6.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.

Where is the best price on Gardner Minshew II 200+ pass yds?

As of Nov 5, 2:20 AM ET, the cheapest over is Novig at 50¢ (next best 53.8¢), and the cheapest under is Novig at 51.9¢ (next best 52.8¢). Prices are per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks at their raw quote — so the two are directly comparable. Cheapest is not the same as correct: compare it to our model's probability for the same threshold before taking a position.

What is Gardner Minshew II's 2026 projection?

Gardner Minshew II projects 203 half-PPR points (11.9 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 400 (round 34). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

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Projections as of 2026-11-04; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.