Aaron Rodgers
QB · Pittsburgh Steelers · bye week 9
2026 projection vs. consensus ADP — where our board disagrees with the market.
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Aaron Rodgers, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Aaron Rodgers this week
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Aaron Rodgers at 81.5¢ for 150+ pass yds against ATL in Week 1, with the best over at Novig (85.5¢).
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Aaron Rodgers at 54.0¢ for 200+ pass yds against ATL in Week 1, with the best over at Kalshi (58.7¢) and the best under at Novig (46.1¢).
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Aaron Rodgers at 43.5¢ for 2+ pass TDs against ATL in Week 1.
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Aaron Rodgers at 37.0¢ for 225+ pass yds against ATL in Week 1.
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Projected points
219
12.9 per game
Consensus ADP
241
round 21
QB rank
QB27
model has him QB27
2026 range
10th pct 163·median 201·90th pct 290
Measured, not simulated. Our QB projections have landed inside this band 80% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rush Yds
10th 0·median 3·90th 22
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at QB.
The Ladder — Aaron Rodgers
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ pass TDsPIT v ATL | 76.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 2+ pass TDsPIT v ATL | 43.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 150+ pass ydsPIT v ATL | 81.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 85.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| 200+ pass ydsPIT v ATL | 54.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 58.7¢under · Novig 46.1¢ | Kalshi → |
| 225+ pass ydsPIT v ATL | 37.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 250+ pass ydsPIT v ATL | 23.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 29.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 275+ pass ydsPIT v ATL | 15.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rush ydsPIT v ATL | 13.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 20+ rush ydsPIT v ATL | 9.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, books as of Sep 9, 6:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Steelers 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 330 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Aaron Rodgers
What is Aaron Rodgers's 2026 projection?
Aaron Rodgers projects 219 half-PPR points (12.9 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 241 (round 21). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
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Projections as of 2026-09-09; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.