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NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

Week 1 markets live now

FOMC SEPT 16

Kalshi, Polymarket and futures disagree on the Fed

Decision Wed 2pm ET

NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

Emanuel Wilson

RB · Seattle Seahawks · bye week 11

FLAG

Week 1 projection and prop outlook — rushing, receiving and receptions ranges vs. the market.

Our Week 1 projection for Emanuel Wilson, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Week 1 distribution

Rec Yds

10th 0·median 5·90th 27

Receptions

10th 0·median 1·90th 3

Rush Yds

10th 4·median 20·90th 77

The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.

Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value

Projected points

95

5.6 per game

Consensus ADP

211

round 18

RB rank

RB51

model has him RB50

2026 range

10th pct 48·median 94·90th pct 163

Measured, not simulated. Our RB projections have landed inside this band 81% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.

The market drafts him 2 spots later than our board does at RB. That gap is why he carries a value tag.

Seahawks 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

vs NE

Week 2

at ARI

Week 3

at WAS

Week 4

vs LAC

Week 5

vs SF

Week 6

at DEN

Week 7

vs KC

Week 8

vs CHI

Week 9

vs ARI

Week 10

at LV

Week 12

at SF

Week 13

vs DAL

Week 14

vs NYG

Week 15

at PHI

Week 16

vs LAR

Week 17

at CAR

Week 18

at LAR

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about Emanuel Wilson

What is Emanuel Wilson's 2026 projection?

Emanuel Wilson projects 95 half-PPR points (5.6 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 211 (round 18). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

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Projections as of 2026-09-11; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.