2026 projection vs. consensus ADP — where our board disagrees with the market.
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Jahan Dotson, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Jahan Dotson this week
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Jahan Dotson at 5.5¢ for 70+ rec yds against PIT in Week 1.
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Jahan Dotson at 8.5¢ for 60+ rec yds against PIT in Week 1, with the best over at Kalshi (9.6¢).
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Jahan Dotson at 13.0¢ for 50+ rec yds against PIT in Week 1.
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Projected points
92
5.4 per game
Consensus ADP
370
round 31
WR rank
WR106
model has him WR103
2026 range
10th pct 43·median 84·90th pct 136
Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 10·median 31·90th 86
Receptions
10th 0·median 2·90th 5
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
The market drafts him 6 spots earlier than our board does at WR — we are lower on him than consensus.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ rec ydsATL v PIT | 13.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 60+ rec ydsATL v PIT | 8.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | Kalshi → |
| 70+ rec ydsATL v PIT | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, books as of Sep 9, 6:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Falcons 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 330 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Jahan Dotson
What is Jahan Dotson's 2026 projection?
Jahan Dotson projects 92 half-PPR points (5.4 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 370 (round 31). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
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Projections as of 2026-09-09; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.