Projected 2026 NFL Standings by Division
The prediction-market read on every division race: projected standings for all 32 teams — simulated W–L, power rating, division-title and playoff odds — then a card per division with the DAEPA model favorite. Tap through for win totals and the head-to-head schedule.
AFC projected standings
AFC East
Division hub →
Buffalo BillsBills11.2–5.8+2.355%83%2
New England PatriotsPatriots10.1–6.9+3.041%74%3
New York JetsJets6.3–10.7-2.73%10%4
Miami DolphinsDolphins5.0–12.0-4.31%3%AFC North
Division hub →
Cincinnati BengalsBengals10.6–6.4+1.937%73%2
Cleveland BrownsBrowns9.9–7.1-0.826%60%3
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers9.9–7.1-0.123%59%4
Baltimore RavensRavens9.3–7.8+1.214%48%
NFC projected standings
NFC East
Division hub →
New York GiantsGiants9.8–7.2-0.760%66%2
Dallas CowboysCowboys8.0–9.0-0.624%32%3
Philadelphia EaglesEagles6.6–10.4-1.610%12%4
Washington CommandersCommanders6.1–10.9-1.85%9%NFC North
Division hub →
Minnesota VikingsVikings11.6–5.4+0.646%84%2
Chicago BearsBears10.7–6.3+3.226%74%3
Detroit LionsLions9.7–7.3+0.619%56%4
Green Bay PackersPackers9.4–7.6+1.49%50%
Proj W–L = simulated mean wins and the losses that leaves over 17 games. PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field (PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR). Div = share of simulated seasons ending in a division title; Playoffs = share reaching the postseason by any route. Projections, not results.
NFL division winner odds 2026 (Kalshi)
- AFC East odds — the Bills at 75¢
- AFC North odds — the Bengals at 45¢
- AFC South odds — the Jaguars at 82¢
- AFC West odds — the Chiefs at 63¢
- NFC East odds — the Cowboys at 47¢
- NFC North odds — the Vikings at 41¢
- NFC South odds — the Falcons at 37¢
- NFC West odds — the 49ers at 73¢
Mid of Kalshi's division-winner bid and ask from our daily capture. Each division page shows every team's price beside our model.
AFC
NFC
What a division title pays: Super Bowl LXI champion odds
Eight division races above; one title market. Every team's live Kalshi champion price on the KXSB winner series, ranked, updated hourly.
NFL divisions 2026 — frequently asked
How many divisions are in the NFL?
Eight — four in each conference (AFC and NFC East, North, South and West), with four teams apiece for 32 teams total. Every team plays its three division rivals twice a year, home and away, and those six games usually decide the division winner.
Can you trade NFL division winners on Kalshi?
Yes — Kalshi lists a division-winner contract for every NFL division (e.g. KXNFLAFCSOUTH); the division winner odds above show each favorite's live price, and each division hub shows every team's price beside our model. Kalshi also lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all 32 teams and conference and Super Bowl champion markets, all CFTC-regulated event contracts.
How do you project NFL division standings before the season?
Pure model: our DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted EPA) power ratings drive a single-game win probability for all 17 games, summed into projected wins (Poisson-binomial, home field +2.5). The team with the most projected wins is the model favorite shown on each division card.
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