Drew Lock
QB · Seattle Seahawks · bye week 11
2026 projection vs. consensus ADP — where our board disagrees with the market.
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Drew Lock, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Drew Lock this week
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Drew Lock at 92.0¢ for 100+ pass yds against NE in Week 1.
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Drew Lock at 52.0¢ for 1+ pass TDs against NE in Week 1.
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Projected points
8
3.8 per game
Consensus ADP
462
round 39
QB rank
QB37
model has him QB39
2026 range
10th pct 6·median 7·90th pct 10
Measured, not simulated. Our QB projections have landed inside this band 80% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at QB.
The Ladder — Drew Lock
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Books | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ pass TDs | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ pass TDsSEA v NE | 52.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 100+ pass ydsSEA v NE | 92.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, books as of Sep 9, 6:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Seahawks 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 330 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Drew Lock
What is Drew Lock's 2026 projection?
Drew Lock projects 8 half-PPR points (3.8 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 462 (round 39). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
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- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-09; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.